Bryce Young: Drafted Where?
Raiders interest signal sliver of hope for Seahawks? 4/5/2023
On this Seahawks newsletter, we’ve talked a lot about Anthony Richardson and Will Levis, even some on Hendon Hooker, but not much on Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud. On Young, the answer for why not is as simple as where Seattle is picking in the draft.
Since I started tracking the 2023 QB prospects on a weekly basis two years ago, I’ve had Young as my number one overall player in this class. (Well, technically yes, Grayson McCall, but he’s more of the #1 player in my heart.) Since the Seahawks do not pick first and the Carolina Panthers jumped ahead of the Texans and Colts, in addition to Seattle, it makes my math for Young rather easy.
Now I’m too old to get into online arguments about why “I’m right” and “you’re wrong” if you have your doubts about a prospect or your favoritism for another. I’ll say what no other writer will say: You know what, you probably ARE right. I probably AM wrong! That’s fine.
I just see a case, I present a case, you decide for yourself.
For the last two years, Bryce Young had a clear lead in the 2023 quarterback class and it wasn’t until Stroud’s performance against Georgia—just one game—that most people were even willing to regularly cite him as QB2. I mean, that’s true. It’s not my opinion. It’s how the class was viewed as recently as last December.
In a mock at CBS Sports on December 20, Stroud went eighth to the Panthers after Young at one and Levis at six. In a mock at USA Today on December 29, Stroud went fifth. In a mock at PFF on December 28, Stroud again goes eighth to the Panthers, again after Young at one and Levis at five. In a mock at ProFootballNetwork on December 10, Stroud goes 15th and is the fourth QB off the board.
These are the first four mocks I read in researching this article. This is not cherrypicking; I’ve followed the draft class for two years and Stroud was not talked about in the conversation for first overall until he played his final college game. I said at the time and I’ll say it again, losing to Georgia is the best thing that has happened to C.J. Stroud so far.
He could have only hurt his stock by playing in another game.
And maybe that’s fair. Maybe Stroud deserves to go number one. Maybe Stroud will play like he did against Georgia for the next 20 years. I’m not here to make arguments about who the better prospect is, I’m only reminding people that Bryce Young was the “pole position” favorite from the 2021 college season until Ohio State-Georgia on Christmas Eve, 2022.
When trying to reason, “Who would the Panthers trade up from nine to one to get?” I’m just going to go with the guy who was favored for much longer.
My feeling is that there certainly was internal debate between Stroud and Young, maybe Frank Reich is as deadset on the “prototype” that people say that he is (Stroud has become the heavy betting favorite to go number one), and maybe that matters. Maybe it doesn’t. So Carolina traded up so that they’d at least know that they were debating for a reason and not wasting time arguing between quarterbacks who they’d never get the chance to draft.
I also find it notable that Houston, Indianapolis, Seattle, Detroit, Las Vegas, and Atlanta all had an advantage over the Panthers and chose not to trade up with the Chicago Bears. Some don’t have trading up in their DNA. Some do. Albert Breer has reported that the Colts were talking to the Bears and didn’t feel comfortable with any of the quarterbacks at the time—which is also notable.
But even if Reich does pound the table for Stroud, quarterbacks are more important than head coaches. Good ones last longer than coaches. Bad ones get coaches fired before they themselves are kicked out. If Panthers owner David Tepper is sold on Young, then that’s a difficult decision for Reich or Josh McCown or anyone else to chip away at between the trade and the draft. Chris Mortensen says that all he’s heard out of Carolina is that it is Bryce Young.
The Seahawks have met with all four quarterbacks, including Young, but it doesn’t sound like they’re going out of their way-out of their way to spend additional time with him. There are reasonable odds that they will have chances at Richardson and Levis and the connections with at least the Gators quarterback seem a little bit stronger. I argue that if Anthony Richardson is available at pick five and the reported interest in his potential is real, Seattle would be smart to start a bidding war even if it makes dropping all the way to 16th overall with the Washington Moons.
But today is about Bryce Young and where he will be playing football. If the Las Vegas Raiders believe they have a legitimate shot at him, does that mean that they’ve heard “good news” about where Carolina is leaning?
The Colts, who hold pick four, have worked out both Stroud and Young. I still can’t wrap my head around Jim Irsay picking Richardson, I’m hopeful that Indianapolis is higher on Levis than I am—and after a couple months of being draft-drunk, it seems most others now agree with me.
But I’ve been watching a lot of local podcasts and radio shows recently for the Panthers, Texans, Cardinals, Colts, Lions, Raiders, Falcons, and Titans to get a gauge of what those fans are hearing, seeing, and believing and unsurprisingly the expectations are still that Houston and Indianapolis will draft quarterbacks and that Arizona will trade down, with the preferred spot being a drop from three to four. Maybe because I have the luxury of being an outsider with no skin in the game, I could *incorrectly* or correctly be of the mind that the Texans might be stupid to draft a quarterback this year.
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein is one of the few others on board.
Is there a one-percent chance that the draft will go Stroud-Richardson-Levis-Will Anderson?
I suppose that in the “one-percent” range anything is possible, but the first domino to fall would have to be the Panthers choosing Stroud over Young, a possibility that can’t be ruled out until it’s ruled out. I’ve also been re-watching a lot of old drafts and what I’m reminded of is how many times the first overall pick doesn’t become clear until less than 24 hours before it happens and that it is often a player who fans and media said, “Oh, it won’t be that guy.”
Including Baker Mayfield over Josh Allen and Sam Darnold. Including Kyler Murray. Including Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers. We could just as easily be looking back at the 2017 draft as the one in which Patrick Mahomes went second overall—those decisions literally come down to ONE person saying, “Take that guy, not that guy.” Just one person decides the value of each prospect!
Tepper, the owner of the Panthers, decided to pay Teddy Bridgewater, to trade for Darnold, to trade for Mayfield. He will decide who to pick first overall, he might pick Stroud. That might be right.
That might be why the Raiders for some reason think they have a shot at Bryce Young even though Las Vegas picks seventh.
Though Young will not make it to seven—I don’t think he will make it to two and I really don’t think he will make it to three—the regimes of the Raiders and Texans previously worked together in New England. There are buddies all over the place. We have not heard any word that the Lions, Falcons, or Seahawks are doing extra homework or visits with Bryce Young yet. But the Raiders are having him in for a chat.
There’s perhaps just no reason not to do that, but what if Stroud goes first overall and Houston feels they are not going to be the right team for Young? What if Young goes first and the Texans—who had previous contract disputes with Stroud’s agent because he is Deshaun Watson’s agent—aren’t sold on him?
There’s no law that I know of that says that just because the Internet deemed a quarterback as a “must-take” if he’s on the board that the team must take him. Ask the Texans about “must-take” prospects (Reggie Bush, Vince Young) when they’ve had top picks in the past. This becomes more relevant to Seattle because Houston isn’t going to let the Colts trade up for a franchise quarterback and the Seahawks are next on the board.
Houston’s regime being bedfellows with the Las Vegas regime is all well and good, but doesn’t compare to Seattle being able to offer them more, if indeed Tepper is compelled by Reich to pick “the safer body type” over the less-risky processor/magician/improviser/arm-angler.
What I really like about Young more than Stroud is that there is a lot less guesswork and “What could he become if…” with the Alabama quarterback. Not just less than Stroud, Richardson, and Levis, but less than almost any QB prospect we’ve seen before. Bryce Young does have to improve, he does have to get better, he does have limitations, and he does need to have a supporting cast—all things that could have been said about Joe Burrow in 2020.
We have to remember that there were size concerns about Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray. The concerns were not, “Well, these guys are BARELY above the threshold. Just as long as a guy isn’t as small as (Bryce Young’s size), then they’ll just barely meet the standards for being in the NFL!” No, it is the same exact language before as it is then, we just keep lowering the bar.
And we did see those size limitations impact all four of those quarterbacks in the NFL. I won’t forget that.
But if Mayfield and Murray can go first overall at 5’11 or 6’ and a little chunkier, then a much better prospect can definitely go first overall at 5’10 and a little lighter. That’s why I think Bryce Young will be the first overall pick. If not, he will be the second overall pick.
Will that be to the Texans, the Raiders, or another team? If Houston is willing to trade, then it’s entirely up to John Schneider and Pete Carroll if they want to take that risk and outbid the Raiders. Anyone they pick will be a risk. I’d take those chances on Young, they might not. I bet the Raiders would.
My odds for Bryce Young: Where Drafted?
1-Panthers
2-Texans
3-Seahawks
4-Raiders
Heavy favorites that he goes to Carolina, but I believe reports that if they take Stroud, the Texans will pick Bryce Young. If there’s any chance that Houston wants to wait a year to draft a quarterback, this could be an opportunity for Seattle to slide up. But I will say those odds are as slim as this pun.
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I remember during last years draft there was a lot of talk about how THIS years draft had 2 and maybe 3 "Can't Miss" quarterbacks. Do I remember that correctly? If so, who were those QBs? Were they Young and Stroud?
I'm not trying to make a point, I just have a feeble memory...
The important question: Does Young wipe his ass sitting down or standing up? I didn't even know there was more than one way until I saw someone do it so I of course went and looked up old reddit threads with people arguing about the correct way.