Doubling-down on the 49ers being overrated

We've seen teams like the 49ers before and we know how those seasons ended

They’ll say that I’m tempting fate to criticize Seattle’s next opponent four days before the biggest Seahawks game since at least the 2022 wild card game that was also in Santa Clara. I’m willing to take that risk. Are you willing to take that journey with me?

The word I’d use for the 49ers season is “admirable”. If the 49ers end up getting to the Super Bowl, it’s one of the great coaching jobs of all-time.

I respect that San Francisco is one win away from the one seed. If they beat the Seahawks this week, they’ll be a tough out. But just based on their entire body of work and not the “admirable” effort to overcome their injuries, I actually don’t think the Niners will get that close.

First, let’s go back to what I wrote about the NFC West all the way back APRIL!

But here’s my take on the “last” division: The NFC West could also come out of next season with the reputation as the BEST division in the NFL. The feeling I have after recapping all 32 teams and all eight divisions is that the NFC West may be the only division that doesn’t have a weak spot.

Obviously the West does have a weak spot, but it’s also the best division in the NFL and it’s not close. I continue later…

By finishing in first place, the Rams must face the Lions, Eagles, and Ravens. No other team in the NFC West has to play those three division-winners. By comparison, the last place 49ers will face the Bears, Giants, and Browns. That’s a W-L record difference of 41-10 to 11-40. Schedules are NOT equal.

Against their non-common opponents, the 49ers went 3-0, the Rams went 2-1, and the Seahawks went 3-0. It didn’t impact the standings much (and goal posts move when teams like the Moons and Vikings with Max Brosmer are so much worse than we predicted) but the 49ers still got to play two of the worst teams in the NFL and that shitty Bears defense we watched on Sunday night is basically as bad as it was last year, or worse.

So right off the bat I think we have to acknowledge the fact that these teams don’t start the seasons off on equal footing. And I feel I need to bring it up because the 3-different-opponents is never mentioned anywhere else.

Is Brosmer worse than Shedeur Sanders? Possibly. But keep in mind that the Niners have faced Sanders, Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, Jacoby Brissett, Bryce Young, Spencer Rattler, Michael Penix, Philip Rivers, Kyler Murray…

And they’re 25TH(!!) in pass defense! And 32nd in pressure/sacks!

Offensively, Seahawks fans complain about how bad the team is running the ball and Seattle is 25th in yards per carry. The 49ers are 30th in yards per carry! And they’re only not in last place because of this week’s easy game against the Bears defense.

I’ve said in the past that the Seahawks have won 13 games and were in position to win all three games that they lost. They could be 16-0. The 49ers have won 12 games and they weren’t even close to beating the Texans or the Bucs or the Rams in their loss to L.A.; San Francisco couldn’t be better than 13-3. Seattle hasn’t lost one game as ugly as those three losses.

For my money, the 49ers only have two impressive wins:

• Week 1 over the Seahawks, 17-13, but they had Nick Bosa and Fred Warner then…they’re not the same defense as that team

• Week 5 OT over the Rams, 26-23, but that was on a Thursday

-The 49ers have a rematch against the Rams and they get whomped 42-26.

-The Seahawks beat three AFC playoff teams. The 49ers went 0-2 against AFC playoff teams.

As I wrote on Monday, people are ONLY feeling so “ooh la la” about the 49ers because of when they played this week (SNF), how they won (WE ALL STAYED TUNED IN UNTIL THE FINAL PLAY), who they beat (THE EVEN-MORE-OVERRATED BEARS). But their body of work is clear: Picture last season’s Rams (bad defense, bad rushing team, won 5 games in a row before resting starters in the finale) and I think that’s who the 49ers are.

They’re not bad—they’re good!—they’re just not as good as people are saying they are and they’re getting bonus points because people respect the head coach and the quarterback based on past seasons. This season? The 49ers have a really bad defense and a lot more to prove.

Related/unrelated: The 49ers lost Trent Williams to the first hamstring injury of his career on Sunday. New hamstring injuries don’t bode well for games six days later. George Kittle is expected to return after missing a game with an ankle injury, but could be limited. So whatever the 49ers have been the past month, they could be a lot different without their left tackle.

I didn’t get a chance to respond to more of your post-game comments on Monday, so are a few more of your reactions from the last two days, including why I don’t believe the 49ers have a great offense.

John A Irvine: If Sam ever figures out how not to turn the ball over he will be in contention to win the MVP. I mean Stafford figured it out why can't he? Mean time we are still winning. LFG.

I guess not after last night. Fun fact: Stafford has thrown the third-most INTs in the league over the past five games. Regression is real.

ErnieGehre: As I continue to beat the drum, our offensive line is not opening holes, I saw Kupp and other receivers open holes. Charbonnet had yards on brute force. I think your article on how Detroit did not spend picks money on line is a cautionary tale for us. Also I don’t believe we draft well for defensive ends. Lawrence has shown this. Maybe two 1’s for Maxx Crosby? I thought Malik Willis also looked excellent if we decide Darnold is not the guy, time will tell.

On Willis, he won’t be a Seahawk. Nothing against the adoration and respect for him, but there won’t be any Seattle connection there. Sam Darnold will be the Seahawks QB in 2026, Drew Lock will be the backup, Jalen Milroe will continue to work behind the scenes to try and develop as well as Willis did.

Heck, at this point the Packers have to decide how committed they want to be to Jordan Love.

On the Lions cautionary tale, I don’t see why the Seahawks shouldn’t have the money and resolve to make a big move at center or guard. We need more words like “game manager” but for other positions besides quarterback because it’s so easy to say “well he’s only a game manager he needs to be replaced” and I think Seattle has some game managers on their offensive line.

On Maxx Crosby, he’s still having legitimate knee surgery in the offseason. I’d be a little sketched out at those prices.

Bret: I found myself watching Bradford more closely. I saw more whiffs than good blocks, but I saw him pancake someone during Charbonnet’s 3rd quarter 29-yard run. The funniest thing about it was that he immediately turned and gloated/taunted at the opponent.

I saw some good, but my goodness, it was bad to watch him closely the whole game. He is really bad.

Why does it seem like the worst players do the most gloating?

Nicholas Donsky: The only problem with future Hall of Famer Anthony Bradford is that he's in the wrong league! He needs to learn to speak Canadian, eh.

Chuck Turtleman: While we absolutely need to upgrade our interior o line in the offseason; I am not convinced AB’s our biggest concern. The Shaheed trade is looking less “luxury” by the week.

Seahawks WR problems (which have been an apparent long-term concern since even before the team traded DK Metcalf and released Tyler Lockett):

Cooper Kupp is the easiest cut decision the Seahawks have had in a while. His value as a run blocker or a player mentor is nice but those aren’t reasons to pay a receiver $17.5 million. Kupp is less valuable as a receiver in 2025 than Lockett was in 2024 and that’s saying a lot. He had one catch for six yards and both of his incomplete targets went down as drops.

Tory Horton played six games in 2024 and he’s on track to play eight games in 2025 so when 2026 starts he’s not even going to have that much recent experience. Elijah Arroyo has been legitimately injured in three of the last four years. Rashid Shaheed is injured, a free agent, and has yet to establish himself as a valuable week-after-week member of Seattle’s OFFENSE.

If the Seahawks could run the ball better, it wouldn’t matter as much. But if the Seahawks had another good receiver, they’d probably run the ball better.

Dutcher: I’m just marveling that we have the best defense innovator as our head coach. His Ravens defense was tops. We are tops in much the same way. Not every successful defensive coordinator that gets a head coaching job produces a top defensive unit with their new team. What he did with Baltimore and now us is proof in the pudding of how cutting edge he is as a defensive genius. He is the perfect counter to the offensive gurus of McVay and Shanahan. MM paired with JS is a wonderful collaboration with a very good owner in JA.

That is very true about hiring defensive or offensive gurus. Hard to replicate success with new players, in a new environment.

On Sean McVay’s Rams and Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers, I agree. You have to think that those teams are seriously reconsidering their structure (depending on what happens Saturday, of course) given how much different the Seahawks matchups have been recently.

Shanahan had problems beating Pete Carroll, but went 4-0 against Seattle in 2022-2023. McVay and Stafford owned the Seahawks, but now seem rattled against Mike Macdonald; Puka Nacua was responsible for most of the damage in the last one.

It’s exciting to think about what other needs MM could feed to Schneider in the 2026 offseason and how the defense could be even better next year.

This video isn’t about the Seahawks specifically but about getting sacks without blitzing:

Mcdude: Piss poor clock management at the end of the first half. I was yelling, “call time out”.

Yeah, that was strange. Leaving some time on the clock for the other team shouldn’t matter if the other team can’t buy a first down. Hell, it might be GOOD to leave time on the clock when you score; you could score two more times.

On Monday, I posted a very pro-Seahawks, anti-49ers newsletter and these are some of the comments from that piece:

Paul G: I’m with you, Joe: The Hawks can handle these guys.

And I have no problem doubling down either. The 49ers are the most overrated team of the week. It’s not like San Francisco has a defense that’s serviceable, it’s just bad. It’s a downright bad defense.

Doesn’t guarantee that Seattle will win, just means that the offense should have a nice bounce-back game.

Ode: Semi-on-topic, but I've begun referring to this year's Seahawks D as "MOB Violence" - it seems fitting (your mileage may vary).

They do work together nicely! Seems like the Seahawks defense always brings waves of players at every ball-carrier, so that if the first wave doesn’t get you, the second wave is right behind them.

Sea Hawk Run! Will the circumstances be favorable for Darnold over Purdy? Purdy has been excreting gold lately. That could make him overconfident against a great defense. Our run defense could put him behind the sticks. His superpower is that he is unflappable. A quick change of fortunes could make him flap.

Fun fact, depending on your version of “fun”: Brock Purdy is third and Sam Darnold is fourth in interception rate.

Purdy opens this week’s game with a pick-six and ends it as the hero. It’s not going to be as easy for him to recuperate his losses against Seattle’s defense as it was against Chicago’s (pretty dang bad) defense.

(I’ll be shocked if the Bears win two playoff games and I’ll even be a little surprised if they survive the first round.)

Purdy did most of his damage on intermediate throws (6/7, 125 yards, 1 TD/0 INT from 10-19 air yards) so I might have to put top-ranked pass defense linebacker Ernest Jones or middle-field weapon Nick Emmanwori on the nice list this week.

Don Ellis: I feel very confident we will win this Saturday. In my estimation, Kyle Shanahan deserves the COTY award due to what the Niners have had to overcome this year while still having an excellent season.

Shanahan’s coach of the year bid is a good one because a lot of other teams seem to collapse under similar circumstances. I do think it’s important to factor in San Francisco’s last place schedule and the teams that they actually looked good against vs how much worse they looked against some common opponents that lost badly to the Seahawks and Rams (Texans, Jaguars).

So for me the Shanahan job is very “admirable” and I think you could have 5 or 6 other candidates just as strong for that award this year. You don’t really coach players to turn the ball over, so Macdonald’s ability to win 13 games despite all those flubs against a harder schedule is probably more impressive to me, but then if the 49ers win this Saturday and sweep Seattle and get the 1 seed that’s hard to argue against.

zezinhom400: You’re giving me hope…the only follow-up question I have is why you have them as Good Offense instead of Great Offense (now that Purdy is back).

Let’s go with this 3-game offensive hot streak that has people even considering the 49ers as a “great” offense:

• 37-24 over the 3-13 Titans

• 48-27 over the 8-8 Colts

• 42-38 over the 11-5 Bears

So let’s break it down…

Titans is an easy-button game that came at the right time. I don’t think the 49ers were that much better against Tennessee (28th in points allowed) than Seattle, although the theme here isn’t that the 49ers aren’t better than the Seahawks on offense. I graded the Seahawks as average and the 49ers as good, which I just mention in case anyone asks, “But the Seahawks…”

The 49ers have a better offense than the Seahawks and a worse offense than the Rams.

Then they played the Colts at a time when they’re fully collapsing. San Francisco’s second touchdown came after a fumbled kickoff return. The Colts never had a good defense, but now they’ve come apart at every seam.

Then as I said before, both defenses were atrocious on Sunday night. I don’t care what their record says, if I was a coach or a quarterback I would kill to play the Bears in the playoffs (at home). Chicago is 28th in yards per pass allowed, 29th in yards per carry allowed. They’re really bad!

And maybe the 49ers are the best offense that any of those teams have faced recently. But can you be last in yards per carry prior to Week 17 and be a “great” offense? (Now they’re 30th.) Can you revert to “fine” against any good defense (like when the 49ers lost 26-15 to the Texans and had 12 first downs) and be a great offense?

The 49ers will not move the ball like they did in Week 17 and maybe that would be the case even if they did have a great offense, but I think “good” is fair until they prove it against a better defense than their recent opponents.

Seaside Joe 2493