Kenneth Walker hopes for All-Pro season: Seahawks RB preview
Will a Seahawks RB break "the curse" in 2025?
Since Marshawn Lanch had his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season in 2014, and therefore since “the play” that ended that season, the Seattle Seahawks have only had a player hit that mark three times in the past 10 years:
Chris Carson had 1,151 yards in 2018
Carson had 1,230 yards in 2019
Kenneth Walker III had 1,050 yards in 2022
In that time, 22 teams have had a player rush for more yards in a season than Carson’s 1,230. This may not mean as much to some franchises, but the Seahawks have built their identity around the run game, a team that has featured Lynch, Shaun Alexander, Curt Warner, Chris Carson, and Ricky Watters with great success in the past.
Recent attempts to recreate the magic with early draftees like Rashaad Penny and Christine Michael made many fans cringe, either right after the pick or a couple years later, but that hasn’t stopped John Schneider from trying:
Since 2022, there have only been 10 running backs taken in the first two rounds…Seattle picked TWO of them. That’s 20% of all the picks in the last four years and also 33% of all the picks just between 2022-2023.
Kenneth Walker has proven (predictably, no matter what twitter says) to not be as good as the two first round picks, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. But his 61.7 rushing yards per game is the highest mark among day two running backs since 2022 and there is hope yet that Walker will be a top-5 running back in the near future.
Zach Charbonnet hasn’t had many opportunities to prove if he’s worthy of being a team’s featured running back, but he’s been productive in half of his starts (which is as much as you can ask for) and he rather quietly scored nine touchdowns in 2024.
Having two running backs combine for 92 rushing yards per game is not as good as having one running back who does that, but at least they don’t get as badly injured as Penny or are as bad at football as Michael.
However, Seattle isn’t just looking for good enough, they want someone to step up at the position and prove that he’s great. And nobody wants that more right now than offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.
Can we look forward to that happening this year?
Excitement/Worry Levels
Kenneth Walker III: 8/10 excited
Avoiding a major injury could be the only thing that separates Walker from a 1,300-yard rushing season in Kubiak’s offense. Getting to the edge and evading would-be tacklers has been Walker’s specialty since his freshman season at Wake Forest, which he took with him to Michigan State in 2021, and he’s continued to prove it in the NFL.
According to this chart by “fantasysmyth” on Twitter, Walker’s avoided tackles per attempt rate in 2024 was literally off the charts:
No other RBs rate was close to 0.30, but Walker’s hit the 0.4 mark:
Walker’s dedication to the weight room and reports of him being in excellent shape to start camp are a good sign, but this being a contract year is even better. He should be motivated to reach a statistical number this season that helps him get the number that will set him up financially for the rest of his life.
Since the Saints didn’t have anyone like Walker in 2024, I think that an apt comparison for a breakout season would be Dalvin Cook’s four-year run with the Vikings from 2019-2022:
Averaged 1,256 rushing yards per season (1,472 yards if he hadn’t missed any games)
All four Pro Bowls
11 rushing touchdowns per season
350 receiving yards per season
And Walker has much better ball security than Cook. Stay on the field, stay on the Seahawks.
Film clip of the day: Every running concept explained by Fourth and Film
Zach Charbonnet: 5/10 happy with him as the insurance policy
It’s difficult to have both things be true at the same time; if I’m excited for Walker to have a breakout season, how can I also spare excitement for any other running backs on the team? If Charbonnet is put into a starting role, then I will amp up these levels, but if I do it now I’m just being a homer.
For example:
If I was a Lions fan, I’d be excited for Jahmyr Gibbs and that’s it. David Montgomery is a really good running back and the Lions are lucky to have him. He’s not putting any butts in the seats. And not for nothing, but the Lions were just as good without Montgomery when he missed games last year.
The range of outcomes for Charbonnet is “needs to start games and looks amazing” to “gets traded because the Seahawks prefer Martinez”.
Damien Martinez: 6/10 excitement because he’s newer
There’s pretty much nothing else to go off of other than “Seahawks drafted a running back” and that’s interesting. Two years ago that was Kenny McIntosh, also in the seventh round, and he has 172 career yards. We’ll see.
And the rest (McIntosh, George Holani, Jacardia Wright + FB Robbie Ouzts)
McIntosh averaged 5.8 yards per attempt on 27 carries in the last five games of the season but an injury has now ended his season in camp for the second time in three years. Fans shouldn’t want to find out how good any of these players are in the regular season, but the nature of the position means that we might anyway.
Seaside Joe 2342
The running game is so critical to the success of this team this year. K9 is by far our most explosive RB with his ability to create missed tackles in the open field once he gets past the line of scrimmage. Getting him through to the second level defenders is what Kubiak’s scheme is designed to do. I’ve said this before that I feel K9 is a 1400+ yard rusher with a 5+ YPC average IF he stays healthy. I love the work he’s put in to strengthen his body but can it translate to staying healthy for 17 games and then the playoffs? We can only hope so. Having Charbs and Martinez will help if they prove themselves capable in this scheme. In an ideal world K9 carries between 15 to 20 times a game to keep him from overuse and injury.
I’ve got the Seahawks at 12 wins this season, but 1400+ yards from K9 and 2400+ for the team and this team will win additional games. That 1400 yards are rushing yards. I also expect K9 to see plays designed for him in the passing game to get him the ball in open space. 2000+ all purpose yards from him and this team is a true contender.
Past performance is no guarantee of future success.
I love the enthusiasm but I think you, we all, need to step outside and get some fresh air. All the projections, comparing walker to RB’s who have racked up multiple 1000+ yard seasons ALL come with one, very significant ‘if’: “If he doesn’t get hurt”.
This is a year where the scheme will emphasize the running game more than in the past, a year when Walker will be trying harder than ever to produce, and opponents should wise up to the new game plan and be keying on him more, not less than in the past. The guy has a history of injury. If you ask me, all these factors suggest that he is more likely to suffer an injury(s) that will reduce his impact.
I’m hoping he does have a breakout year, that the hawks will break records in the ground game, that the go to the Super Bowl that island a 40+ pound King this year … but I think the enthusiasm and projections need to consider probabilities along with possibilities.