Mock drafts never learn

You don't draft your needs in your order of needs!

Continuing from Thursday’s post, here are more questions from Super Joes about the Seahawks. All of these questions were about the draft, so I lumped them together in one newsletter. If you want to be on the next Q and A, upgrade to Super Joes from free or Regular Joes!

Eduardo: In the majority of the Mock Drafts, we see an offensive lineman being mocked to the Seahawks. Whether its Tyler Booker, Banks, Campbell, Membou, etc. It's understandable due to our desperate need, but if the Seahawks were to deviate from their most urgent need and are unable to trade back, what non OL/DL "out of left field" first rounder could the Hawks be keeping an eye on?

Grant: Add on question to Eduardo's: Are there any prospects from non-traditional-first-round-positions (e.g., ILB, safety, punter (just kidding)) that look so good they need to be considered?

This is the first time in Seaside Joe history that I’ve allowed myself to consider the Seahawks drafting a first round offensive lineman who isn’t strictly a tackle. I would still lean much heavier on a tackle who could play guard than just a guard (and still definitely not a center) but taking a “very large” offensive lineman makes sense right now depending on free agency.

John Schneider is still most likely not going to take a guard with his first pick unless he trades down and sees the player as an almost-immediate Pro Bowler; it was very unusual for the Seahawks to take Steve Hutchinson in the first round (this trend to overlook guards/centers transcends Seattle regimes since the beginning of the franchise), but they did it because Hutchinson was viewed as a super-prospect at the position and people were surprised he was still available at 17. These things change between February and April, but I don’t know of any guards in this class who are respected like Hutchinson was.

As of February 7th, NFLMockDraftDatabase rates Tyler Booker as the most popular pick for the Seahawks in mock drafts right now:

But this happens with the Seahawks and guards/centers every single year and thus far the mock drafts have yet to be right!

The Seahawks don’t have a “let’s draft someone and hope he’s good” need at guard and center, they have a “let’s pay someone who has already been good in the league” need at those positions. So what would really shock me is if we get to the end of the first week of free agency and Seattle hasn’t signed at least one new starter on the interior of the offensive line.

Keeping in mind that Schneider has drafted FIVE guards/centers in the last two years, then a free agent+an early-ish draft pick+competition with in-house options seems like the Seahawks most probable route to improve here. Over the last few years, we have consistently seen centers get first round buzz then fall to the second round (Jackson Powers-Johnson, Joe Tippmann, John Michael Schmitz, Steve Avila, Cam Jurgens) so fans should expect Schneider to be patient and probably wait until day two for this need.

Now to your question of “non-trench positions” to watch and Grant’s “non-traditional” first round targets…

It’s trench-ish, but I can’t dismiss edge rushers as a first round target for the Seahawks. Even if you believe that Boye Mafe and Derick Hall are going to be great, there’s no downside to having THREE premium edge rushers. Mafe is a 2026 free agent, Hall is a 2027 free agent, but a first round pick this year wouldn’t become a free agent until 2030.

Salary cap is also a major consideration for the first round decision:

• If a team has to sign a guard to fix a weakness, the fifth-highest cap hit is $16 million per season

• If a team has to sign an edge rusher to fix a weakness, the fifth-highest cap hit is $25 million per season

Teams are getting a way better value with an edge rusher on a rookie contract than a guard — and especially a center — on a rookie contract.

That’s the biggest reason why GMs prioritize quarterbacks, tackles, and edge rushers in the first round. It’s the best value and these are the positions least-likely to change teams in 3-5 years if they are hits. Almost any edge rusher who is a hit will not change teams until after their second contract at the soonest.

Teams do not fill their needs in order. It’s not like this:

• Well our biggest need is drafted first

• Our second-best need is drafted second

• Our third-biggest need is drafted third

They fill them like this:

• Our biggest need is center, let’s target that when there’s a run on centers

• Our second-biggest need is a run-stuffing nose tackle, let’s get him at the start of day three

• Our third-biggest need is QB, let’s see if one drops to us in the first round

When the Jaguars evaluated that one of their biggest needs in 2012 was punter and then they took Bryan Anger in the third round over Russell Wilson, we saw how that worked out for them.

To be fair, the Seahawks are almost exclusively deviating from these priorities with their first round picks:

• 2019: L.J. Collier (first round run-stopping defensive end)

• 2020: Jordyn Brooks (first round off-ball linebacker)

• 2021: (Traded for a safety)

• 2022: (Traded for a safety)

• 2022: Charles Cross

• 2023: Devon Witherspoon (first round small-sized corner)

• 2023: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (first round slot receiver)

• 2024: Byron Murphy (first round defensive tackle)

Collier, Brooks, and Jamal Adams were misfires. Cross, a left tackle, should be the first Seahawks first round pick to get the fifth year option…EVER!

The book is still out on the most recent three, but clearly Seattle was prioritizing college success and more of a mentality — “guys who have that dog in them” — than necessarily having first round physical traits at premium positions. Although with Murphy, it just depends on whether he not he becomes a top tier pass rusher.

When it comes to his time on the clock, I expect Schneider to go back to his comfort zone which would mean trading down (if he can even find an offer this year), or picking a tackle or picking an edge rusher. Not to entirely cop out of the question, here are two outside-the-box picks:

TE Tyler Warren, Penn State

S Malaki Starks, Georgia

If they fall out of the top-15, which is not expected (but Byron Murphy wasn’t expected to either), these two are often cited as being value-transcendent at their positions…That being said, sometimes I end up regretting putting a tag like that on a player this early in the process.

Danno: I’ve been looking at mock drafts and most will state the positional needs of each team. It’s not very detailed and in my opinion, not very accurate. But how would you rate the need going into free agency and the draft? I know it’s difficult, especially not knowing what will happen before free agency.

Btw, I am trying to make a determination of my own on a scale of 0, no need, to 3 highest need.

The “free agency, draft, trade, hold” series helped me put the need thoughts together:

OFFENSE

DEFENSE

In terms of the draft, as far as the positions that I think the Seahawks would want to fill with rookies — and again, “need” is different than “draft these positions in this order” — then I think Seattle’s needs in the draft are (using your 0-3 scale): iOL (3), EDGE (3), QB (2), WR (2), LB (2), OT (2), CB (2), S (2), TE (1), RB (1)

I would put QB at the top if I thought that the Seahawks were in the position to draft a really good prospect. Instead, it’s more of a “middle-rounds” target. By the time we get through free agency, I would expect iOL, WR, LB, CB to be addressed in some respect.

Scott M: Is there any way to look into various "re-drafts" that are done by numerous outlets a year or two after each draft and see what the success rates are for various teams? I know JS dominated a couple years ...2010-2012, but who else (especially in our conf/div) has had success and what does JS look like more recently and overall?

Not sure in terms of what other outlets are saying in their re-drafts, but generally I would say the Seahawks are getting manhandled by the Rams (as most teams are) in the last two years. Some of L.A.’s success is due to opportunity — they’ve needed cheap players to start because of their overpays — but players like Puka Nacua, Kobie Turner, Verse, and Braden Fiske especially stand out.

Unfortunately, some of Seattle’s recent picks that looked like home runs at first (Abe Lucas, Riq Woolen, to an extent Mafe and Kenneth Walker) haven’t been consistently trending upwards. On the flip side, Coby Bryant was a pleasant third-year surprise. The Seahawks just need the lightswitch to flip “ON” for a few guys in 2025 and then they’ll be fine — and I’m hopeful that it will.

zezinhom400: Saw this 2024 redraft on NFL.com and was interested to note that Byron Murphy dropped out of R1 altogether, and that two other DT's (Fiske and Murphy's ex-teammate Sweat) did make it into R1. Wondering if you agree that Murphy didn't really warrant his R1 status -- I know he didn't put up the flashy stats but in the more analytics-type videos I've seen, seemed to me he was a big factor in us shoring up our defense.

Bar none, Braden Fiske was better in 2024 than Byron Murphy. Will that continue? We’ll see, it’s only been one season.

In some cases, the re-draft you mentioned overvalues what a player did as a rookie (Bucky Irving, for example) and in others, the writers completely ignored production (Caleb Williams was horrific as a rookie), so I am not putting any stock into this order. It’s just a thing to pass the time. Which is fine, but that’s how I see it.

La’au: Let's go over offensive linemen, blocking schemes used by Kubiak and the type of player we could be looking for to play guard or center. I want to get excited about some prospects. Another topic could be what is up with Christian Haynes and his core strength for him to not beat out Bradford.

By all accounts, Kubiak brings one of the most common and basic blocking schemes in football, as his last name suggests. CBS’s Chris Trapasso outlined some of those details last season:

After getting his NFL start with the Vikings, a few years later, naturally, Klint Kubiak linked with his dad, Gary Kubiak, as an offensive assistant. Remember, Gary Kubiak worked as the quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator with Mike Shanahan from San Francisco to Denver in the 1990s, winning three Super Bowls. In essence, Gary Kubiak is one of the original branches of the (Mike) Shanahan coaching tree.

And Klint Kubiak is staying true to the Shanahan ways. Plenty of outside zone, and, somewhat unique to today's game, two- and three-man route concepts, that have accentuated the speed and fluidity of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed despite being significantly outnumbered by opposing secondary members.

The Saints made several offensive line changes last offseason, including signing Lucas Patrick to replace James Hurst at guard after Hurst retired. Patrick is a free agent, so perhaps he’s someone Kubiak would endorse as a fallback option, but he’s not going to be any team’s priority.

Guys who can hustle and scoot quickly down the field, prioritizing speed over size (while never ignoring size), could be something to monitor.

If any of you have an OL wish list, please share in the comments:

zezinhom400: You've got 3 trade offers at #18:

1 - Washington will give 29 and 61 for 18 and our Cleveland 6th

2 - Tennessee will give 35 and 102 plus their 2nd and 3rd in 2026 for 18 and 236 (tempting bc of the strength of next year's draft and the likelihood Tennessee's picks will be early picks)

3 - Jets will give 42, 92, 157 and next year's 2nd for 18

Or you can stay put and here are some of the best players still available…Do you trade? If so, which trade and who do you take? If not, who do you take?

I’m definitely turning down Washington. The Titans have a better offer than the Jets. Sorry, I didn’t have the page space to share your entire list of draft prospects, but trading down with the Titans and picking a guard like Grey Zabel (like the ones I mentioned earlier, his first round buzz today could turn into a mid-second round selection; he’s reminiscent of Cody Mauch in that respect) seems like it would get Schneider into the good graces of fans again.

Seaside Joe 2168