I'm worried...

Whatever the Seahawks do at pick 18, the result will probably have red flags

Five years from now, the 2025 draft could be called “the worst class of the era” unless the lack of premium talent and dearth of first round grades has been overstated by the media and the experts.

I’ve said similar statements about drafts in the past, whether it be the entire class or only certain positions, and I’ll often get pushback from readers that it’s “not that bad” — which I always welcome. I encourage you to tell me when you think I’m wrong and to pushback on any statements I make that you feel are exaggerated.

I would rather be proven wrong than enabled to think I’m always right.

But concerns about the 2025 class have lingered for months, not weeks, and the opinion spans across the spectrum of every analyst who I follow for draft news and prospect reports. In December, Mike Renner was asked if this would be the worst class of recent memory:

"It's really bad, yeah," Renner said. "It's because the premier positions that you would ideally want to take at the top of the draft -- offensive tackle, wide receiver, and I would say defensive end, to a degree -- I think this defensive end class is insanely deep, but there's no guy I'm going to have a top-five grade on….It's a unique class, one where scouts have to make their money…”

Sometimes the perception of a “bad class” can change during the pre-draft process between the College Football Playoffs, the Senior Bowl, and the Scouting Combine, but if anything the events of the last few months have probably done more to damage the resumes of the top prospects, not helped them:

• Instead of 2-3 QBs cropping up as top-10 prospects, Shedeur Sanders has gone from the potential number one overall pick to Vegas odds favoring him as a second rounder as of Wednesday

• Cam Ward, the only QB who appears guaranteed to be a first rounder, would have been QB7 in last year’s draft according to a report by Adam Schefter — yes, that’s “QB7”! with a “7!”

• If Will Campbell goes 4th overall, and if he moves to guard in the NFL as most experts expect him to because of his short arms, he will be tied with John Hannah as the highest-drafted guard in NFL history! (There may be top-3 tackles who had to move to guard, but Campbell seems to be on a beeline to playing guard, which has never gone top-3 in the modern era)

• Mason Graham also went through the “short arms problem” at the combine, and though it is not expected to hurt his draft stock or be a hindrance towards a Pro Bowl career, would he be a top-8 pick in a better class or would he fall into the teens like Byron Murphy did in 2024?

• Actually, all of the players in the running for “best defensive prospect” outside of Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter (who are not without their own concerns, especially as it relates to Hunter’s size and durability if he plays both ways) have significant red flags like lack of production (OLB Mykel Williams, EDGE Shemar Stewart), injuries (CB Will Johnson, LB Jihaad Campbell), lacking length/size/weight (LB Jalon Walker, EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku, CB Jahdae Barron), and character concerns (EDGE Mike Green, DT Walter Nolen, EDGE James Pearce)

• On the other side of the ball, WR Tetairoa McMillan is 50th(!) on Todd McShay’s big board but could go as high as 5th to the Jaguars (assuming the Patriots are taking Campbell) and has been accused by film watchers of not always running his routes if he’s not getting the ball. Whereas WR competition like Matthew Golden would have the fewest yards per game in his final season of any first round pick in at least 15 years. At least Golden is a film junkie, whereas McMillan openly admits to avoiding film study as much as possible.

• By the time you circle back to the “safe” prospects like RB Ashton Jeanty and TE Tyler Warren, they play positions that have traditionally underwhelmed as first round investments.

This could also be the reason that Jeanty has been so popular in top-10 trade rumors this week despite being a running back: Teams are legitimately that scared about every other prospect to go in this range.

“There is no such thing as a perfect prospect, Joe!”

Fair, true, and accurate.

But I can’t recall other times when prospects expected to go between 4-10 might make just as much sense if they went in the late-teens or even the 20s, which appears to be the case for 2025’s BEST prospects and it’s not only Sanders who has been so divisive. We’re not talking about the prospects who could get to the Seahawks at 18 having major red flags…Some of the players who go in the top-10 will not even have first round grades with some teams.

Take a player like Missouri tackle Armand Membou, for example.

In January, Membou had a second round grade and was called a “reach” for the Dolphins at pick 13. One of the few who has helped himself in the pre-draft process (although his athleticism was never a question since he was one of Bruce Feldman’s “freaks” already), a tackle with second round film should go in the top-10 and Miami would now have to trade up for the same reach.

Forget Membou for a second:

If 12 other prospects had managed to establish themselves as worthy top-10 picks, there would be no talk of Armand Membou as a player who couldn’t get past the Jets at 7 or the Saints at 9.

The 2025 draft never got “those other prospects”, so now the top-10 is settling for the guys with freakish traits or who play non-traditional first round positions like running back and tight end, of which we could get two that early if Michigan’s Colston Loveland also benefits from a weak class. Last month, I wrote that Loveland might be too risky of a reach at 18. Now it appears that he could be off the board long before then.

BONUS ARTICLE: The Final Mock Draft Round-Up!

I thought I ‘haad my Seahawks prediction but…

This morning I woke up confident that I would make Jihaad Campbell my final prediction for who the Seahawks will draft on Thursday, but any optimism I had that my work was done was immediately dashed from a few more seconds of research: There are concerns that Campbell will start the 2025 season on PUP due to a shoulder injury.

It’s certainly within the rules to draft a player despite an injury, but man oh man does it make me worried to take someone at 18 when you KNOW that he could miss all of his first training camp. ALL OF IT.

The first six months of an NFL player’s career are arguably the most important six months of their ENTIRE career.

Seahawks fans have seen it plenty of times before when a rookie gets hurt in the offseason or in training camp and that entire season becomes a wash. Sometimes they never recover from it. I’m not just referring to Malik McDowell either…

The 2019 draft class was hit hard by injuries in training camp and while DK Metcalf still turned out great, L.J. Collier and Marquise Blair were massive disappointments and fourth round pick Phil Haynes only appeared in two games over his first two seasons, then only played in six games in year three.

When the Seahawks drafted Darrell Taylor in the second round in 2020 they knew that he could miss his entire rookie season — and he did — and though you could still call Taylor “good value” for being semi-productive over three seasons, the end result wasn’t worth it.

And Taylor went 48th, not 18th.

So as much as I want to say that Jihaad Campbell would be the perfect pick for Mike Macdonald’s defense, and that there’s good reason to draft him in spite of the shoulder injury because Seattle wouldn’t need him right away given Ernest Jones and Tyrice Knight, I’m terribly worried about prospects who come pre-packaged with recovering from surgery.

What do you say, DraftNiks: Am I over-thinking this one?

All of my draft concerns in one sentence each

LB Jihaad Campbell

Shoulder surgery.

EDGE Jalon Walker

Small tweener.

TE Colston Loveland

He’s a tight end who might never be much of a blocker.

CB Will Johnson

Injuries.

OL Kelvin Banks

Potentially only a guard, and maybe nothing more than merely a good one.

EDGE Shemar Stewart

4.5 sacks in three seasons might be telling of a low football IQ or lack of effort and commitment to get better.

WR Matthew Golden

We’re probably talking about him as a player who goes early-to-mid round 2 if not for lack of better options at receiver.

EDGE Mike Green

Plays for Marshall and not really excited about adding players who have to answer to allegations.

DB Nick Emmanwori

Tweener who might not have a significant role on Seattle’s defense for several more years.

OT Josh Simmons

Seems like his first round status is largely based on a couple of great games in 2024 prior to getting injured and missing the rest of the season.

CB Jahdae Barron

Will the Seahawks use a top-20 pick on a nickel/sometimes outside CB for the second time in three years?

DT Walter Nolen

Does he want to be the best or is he content being good enough?

OL Grey Zabel

You can’t take a center top-20 unless he’s a generational prospect and top-5 on your entire big board and even if he’s a guard that’s not that much more valuable.

EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku

I get the feeling that Ezeiruaku would be picked in the 50-70 range most years based on his lack of size/explosiveness because many of the most productive college pass rushers have ended up being overpowered in the NFL.

G Tyler Booker

Lack of lateral movement athleticism for Klint Kubiak’s offense.

WR Emeka Egbuka

Is he moving the needle by a lot when you add him to a receivers room that already has Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp?

Trading Down

Will the Seahawks even get an offer to trade down and if they slide down too far doesn’t that only increase their chances of drafting a non-impact player with their first pick?

Trading Up

While the Seahawks could increase their odds of drafting a good player by trading up, who could possibly be worth it and is he that much better than the value of getting two players (say Seattle has to sacrifice pick 82 to trade up 5 spots) instead of only one?

Trading the pick for Trey Hendrickson

I’ll be shocked if the Seahawks are open to investing $80-$90 million in another veteran player right now and skeptical that Hendrickson is worth the 18th overall pick despite being so productive at a premium position.

What to do?

If you told me that the Seahawks were going to draft Ashton Jeanty without having to make a big sacrifice to trade up, I would be very excited for that move despite him being a running back and Seattle not really needing a running back. This is also probably why Jeanty is so popular this week — even if that popularity is just a product of bored fans — because at least he’s a generational college football player…

And as far as we know doesn’t have any injury concerns or red flags that would prevent him from being a top-3 pick if this was 1995 instead of 2025.

Actually, if this was 1995 era football, the Titans probably WOULD draft Jeanty over Cam Ward. There’s just nobody in this class other than Jeanty who stand outs in a positive way more than he does, except for Travis Hunter and only because Hunter plays both ways; if he was only a receiver or only a corner, Hunter wouldn’t be anymore notable than Odell Beckham or Patrick Surtain.

Which still makes him a great prospect, but just not a player expected to go second overall.

Since the Seahawks are not expected to get Jeanty, I have a really hard time settling on any name before the draft that will feel “good”, although that’s sure to change after Seattle makes their pick. I will still be excited for anyone who the Seahawks pick once it happens and accept that whatever his red flags may be — injuries, size, speed, position, character — that the organization reconciled that they could overcome it and make a good starter out of him.

With about 24 hours to go until the first round as I write this, I’m still not sure who my final prediction for Seattle’s first pick will be. But that’s the least of my worries.

Seaside Joe 2242