Seahawks 2023 draft: Top-5 positions for Seattle's other first round pick
Seahawks 2023 draft: Top-5 positions for Seattle's other first round pick
We should be able to get a sense of who the Seahawks will favor with pick 20: Seaside Joe 1492
As is indicated in Sunday’s bonus article on Why the Seahawks Might be Going Full-Court Press at QB Pro Days, I’m firmly settled on the idea that Seattle will choose their top-ranked defensive prospect with the fifth overall pick; or a later pick if John Schneider trades down. Will Anderson has been the top player on my Seahawks big board since at least this article from last October, but I think Jalen Carter is as good of a consolation prize as Pete Carroll could hope for so long as he’s decided to clear the Georgia monster (a nickname that could fit Carter from any point of view) for character reasons.
Seaside Joe always tries to be as rational and reasonable as possible so I don’t want to get overboard with excusing Carter’s potential causes for concern, whether that’s character, motivation, and conditioning. Maybe Carter turns out to have historically bad red flags on the level of Josh Gordon or Isaiah Wilson, in which case he could be more of a risk than a quarterback who needs to learn how to quarterback.
I just have yet to be moved that far aside by the evidence at hand, as prior to his arrest and no-contest plea to a misdemeanor, it seemed as though the worst mark against Carter were conditioning concerns (that Carter openly admitted to, which is better than being in denial) and taking plays off during games. That’s not great news, but it won’t take long for a team in the draft to feel that “If he can do that at 60%, imagine what he could do at 100%!” and have a coach who believes that he can get the most out of Jalen Carter.
Let’s not forget that Pete Carroll is the guy who, while head coach at USC, would take twice-monthly nighttime visits into South L.A. neighborhoods to try and give help to inner city youths for his A Better LA foundation.
“I don’t go to judge . . . just to show that someone cares,” he said. “Just go to give people here a little hope. . . . Get folks to step back and think. Hopefully, get them to change.”
It’s certainly been interesting and confusing to watch the narrative on Carter change since the time of Todd McShay’s comments of whether teams would “want to bring him in the building” last December, as most who cover Georgia were stunned by the allegations back then…
And yet, it wouldn’t be responsible for teams to completely overlook Carter’s arrest and the fact that we never got testing numbers from him. That last part is super unusual if the prospect hasn’t suffered from an injury prior to the combine or pro day. Name almost any great NFL player who was a high draft pick and he probably had dominant athleticism that showed up in drills.
Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Myles Garrett, Quinnen Williams. I think the combine is overrated but to manage to avoid all the drills—That is strange. Carter did leave the combine because of an arrest warrant. He had opportunities to run the 40 and show out his athleticism, yet we never got to see it.
Perhaps this will not matter in Carter’s case, he could end up being the most powerful defensive tackle in the NFL with a wide range of hand-fighting and pass rushing moves that make him an All-Pro one day. I just don’t want to end up saying that I overlooked Carter’s red flags because I was too busy hoping that Seattle would end up getting a prospect at five who was thought to be the best all-around football player in the draft.
Let’s work together at Seaside Joe to not overlook anything…but as it stands, I have to lean in some direction with 25 days to go until the draft and I am heavily on the side of believing that Pete wants his top-ranked defensive prospect, not a quarterback. Anderson is a clean choice to be atop that list, Carter just fits in really well behind him unless the circumstantial evidence weighing against him starts to become a bit more tangible.
Instead, let’s shift our attention to the 20th overall pick, which also happens to be the sixth-highest selection that Carroll has had going into a draft with the Seahawks—something I have overlooked because there’s such immense focus on being back in the top-five for the first time since 2009.
Since I am keyed in on the first pick being a defensive lineman (no other defensive position fits into the top-five this year and same goes for receivers, maybe the only offensive consideration for the Seahawks apart from QB), let’s say that is correct, especially given that nobody disputes it unless you believe that the Seahawks will pick a quarterback, right? EVERYBODY mocks either a QB or a defensive line prospect to Seattle with their first pick.
(But if you want some surprise picks, read this!)
I love a good “best player available” priority in the draft as much as anybody else, but that term can be misleading or misconstrued. The idea of “best player” is usually abstract enough to know that you might end up on the clock and there are seven players with equal football-playing value, right? That’s when you start dividing “best player available” into sub-categories in order to find a proper tiebreaker.
Sub-categories such as:
Is there a player in this group who could start for us right now because we don’t have an entrenched starter now? Does he play a role that is DEFINITELY blocked by a player we already have for the next three years?
Is this position a good value at this stage in the draft? Could I find a player of near equal value at the same position later in the draft?
How important is his position and/or role on our football team? Different coaches have different levels of value per position, which is one of the reasons I’m skeptical of Pete wanting to build the Seahawks around a new franchise quarterback
Is this a position or role I think I can fulfill next year? Which is one of the reasons I’m skeptical that the Texans will draft a QB
How is this position valued in the NFL right now: In terms of salary cap space allocation and draft picks?
These are rules that could be overriden by an exception—like Texas RB Bijan Robinson, for example—but guideposts, nonetheless.
As to what the Seahawks will do with their first pick, I don’t think that the choice will be much of a surprise—Russell Okung, Charles Cross were predictable top-10 picks, whereas Bruce Irvin and Earl Thomas at least fit into the right boxes—and I don’t think the math for pick 20 changes much depending on who goes to Seattle first.
This is how I would rank the top-five positions that I expect the Seahawks to lean into with the second first round pick—and yes, trading down is always an option but I’m going to leave that aside today.
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1 - Wide Receiver
Value to Pete Carroll: “How important is his position and/or role on our football team?”
Value to the NFL: “How is this position valued in the NFL right now: In terms of salary cap space allocation and draft picks?”
Value in the draft: “Is this position a good value at this stage in the draft?”
Value to the Seahawks: “Is there a player in this group who could start for us right now because we don’t have an entrenched starter now?”
Drafting a first round wide reciever checks basically every box and there’s three names—Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers—that are projected to go in the middle-first round who could have immediate roles in Seattle with the upside to become WR1 in the near future. I see Addison as the most-common name mocked to the Seahawks at #20, but any of the three could work and that should make it easy to stay where they are and pick the best available/who they like the most.
The 2019 day two wide receiver class really messed up some people’s heads—and I’m talking about NFL GMs too—because apart from that unusual group (A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel)—we haven’t seen anything close to a replication of that kind of talent after day one.
There have been 31 receivers drafted on day two in the last three years with the top-two talents so far being Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman…they were picked 33rd and 34th overall, so they’re only a spot or two after the first round. Maybe we’ll see good careers out of Christian Watson (34th overall) or Elijah Moore (also 34th). If you just take every Day 2 WR 2020-2022 drafted 35th or later, the top-three right now are George Pickens, Chase Claypool, and Van Jefferson.
Does that not say everything?
Now comp that to first round receivers in the same period of time: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Jerry Jeudy being 10 of the 17 names there. We will never know what would have come of Henry Ruggs and we’ll see how Jameson Williams develops, but the hit rate on receivers picked in the top-15 has been kind of insane and these guys are READY to go.
As we get closer to the draft, the sense is that Smith-Njigba could ultimately go top-10. We will see how that affects the rest of the class, if it happens. I don’t think TCU’s Quinton Johnston is going to be the right middle-field fit for the Seahawks, which is why I haven’t mentioned him.
The Seahawks may like Day 2 value in this class, we’ll find out. I just can’t get past the fact that with receivers now making $20 million+ per season and teams almost always needing to spend first round picks to acquire the great ones, this is a rare opportunity for Seattle to land a potentially elite wide receiver talent with a draft pick while also still getting to draft a defensive player in the top-10. Pete Carroll has been far more likely to use a first round pick on a receiver (Percy Harvin, Jimmy Graham) than he has most any other position, so that’s another reason that I’m continuing to lean here over some other players and needs who are projected to go around the same area.
I’m a fan of Zay Flowers, but I’m not not-a-fan of the others.
2 - PASS RUSHER/SETS THE EDGE
Value to the Seahawks: “Is there a player in this group who could start for us right now because we don’t have an entrenched starter now?”
Value to Pete Carroll: “How important is his position and/or role on our football team?”
Value to the NFL: “How is this position valued in the NFL right now: In terms of salary cap space allocation and draft picks?”
Why Pete might de-value: “Is this position a good value at this stage in the draft?”
As I’ve written quite a few times (here’s one example, but dang I have a lot of articles about the Seahawks—tell a friend!) the Seahawks are thin on the edge, Uchenna Nwosu has yet to be extended, and he really shouldn’t be Seattle’s number one option at that position. The Seahawks are not even yet at the point of saying, “You can never have too many pass rushers!”
They don’t have enough to say that they might have too many.
Darrell Taylor, Alton Robinson are also 2024 free agents, Tyreke Smith is untested, Boye Mafe is unproven. If the Seahawks draft Will Anderson, I would definitely pivot to a different position rather than doubling down with anyone in the vicinity like Lukas Van Ness, Myles Murphy, Nolan Smith, Will McDonald, or Adetomiwa Adebawore. (Many of the top-40 names you can read here!)
Drafting Anderson or Carter doesn’t mean though that the Seahawks couldn’t double-down on pass rushers in the first round or setting the edge: Anderson could lead to Calijah Kancey or Bryan Bressee, Carter could lead to Smith or Adebawore.
And no question that getting a value pass rusher in the draft is one of the NFL’s best bargains: The top-tier is over $22 million per season, the middle-top tier is over $14 million annually. T.J. Watt, the highest-paid in the NFL, was a late first round pick himself, so you may end up with a mega-steal in this range sometimes. Could that be Adebawore or Smith?
Though interior pass rushers don’t get quite the same credit as edge players, the top-tier is still making over $20 million per season, so the NFL pays them just the same. It shouldn’t matter if it’s inside or outside.
But one reason that the Seahawks may choose a receiver over a double-down on the front-seven is simply the apparent depth that you see listed here. Not only the names in the top-40 range, also some names that are getting forgotten or lost in the shuffle. The depth could at edge could be the best at any position in the 2023 class. Here’s one example, Notre Dame’s Isaiah Foskey:
3 - Right Tackle
Value to the Seahawks: “Is there a player in this group who could start for us right now because we don’t have an entrenched starter now—if we move Abe Lucas inside!”
Value to the NFL: “How is this position valued in the NFL right now: In terms of salary cap space allocation and draft picks?”
Why Pete might de-value: “How important is his position and/or role on our football team?”/ “Is this position blocked by another starter already?”
Why Pete might de-value: “Is this position a good value at this stage in the draft?”
As good as Abraham Lucas looked as a rookie, the potential opportunity to draft an elite right tackle one year later could prove to be beneficial for a number of reasons: a) It could help solve the right guard crisis by moving Lucas inside (it’s not unusual for great OL players to move around early in their careers), b) it may offset Seattle’s eventual need to pay both Charles Cross and Lucas extensions at the same time, c) the new right tackle might have more run-blocking experience and a higher upside than Lucas.
Right tackle Lane Johnson was one of the MVPs of the Eagles last year. It’s a position that becomes more important by the year. It helps Geno Smith. And right tackles are now broaching the $20 million per year threshold.
I think teams basically have to have a “Steve Hutchinson rule” when they consider picking a guard or a center this early in the draft and that rule is: Do I feel confident that this player has a FLOOR of being a perennial Pro Bowl guard? There probably isn’t a guard or a center like that in the 2023 draft—but teams could get away with picking a very good tackle in this range and this could be a really strong area in the draft for tackles: Broderick Jones, Darnell Wright, Dawand Jones, Anton Harrison, and Matthew Bergeron are getting the most publicity.
There might even be a tackle who has the potential to be better than Cross at left tackle in the future, another potential value to the team in the long run. We know for a fact that offensive tackle is a position that Seattle puts a first round value on, so even though the Seahawks seemingly have two good young ones today, what if there is a player on the board who they rate as a massive steal at #20?
I know this could be a controversial ranking though, so let me get your comments and add a poll:
Why didn’t Seaside Joe list guard or center?
I’m not going to have either position in my top-5, which I know seems even stranger given that I have a position that is blocked already. As I said earlier about the Hutchinson rule, consider this: James Carpenter and Germain Ifedi turned out to be starting NFL guards…and I’m pretty sure 100% of you HATED those picks. Why? If they were drafted as guards, would you have been happy with the picks?
I think you would have only been happy with the picks if they turned out to be guards as good as Zack Martin or Hutchinson. Therefore, you can’t pick O’Cyrus Torrence or John Michael Schmitz in the first round unless you’re really confident that they are all-pro prospects. Do you feel that way?
In his entire history, Pete has never intentionally used a top-50 pick on an interior offensive lineman. When he used first rounders on Ifedi and Carpenter, Seattle was widely panned. They were serviceable starting guards! That’s why I don’t have G/C listed here, as much as I know that is controversial.
4 - QB
Value to the NFL: “How is this position valued in the NFL right now: In terms of salary cap space allocation and draft picks?”
Why Pete might de-value: “How important is his position and/or role on our football team?”
Why Pete might de-value: “Is this position a good value at this stage in the draft?”
Why Pete might de-value: “Is there a player in this group who could start for us right now because we don’t have an entrenched starter now?”
I was close to not listing quarterback here at all and this is why: It’s a very Pete thing to do, to wait and draft a QB who he thinks the rest of the world is under-valuing. I keep getting my attention drawn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson and as I’ve said in the past, I find myself rooting for QBs based on things that don’t happen on the field. In DTR’s case, it’s this video he posted on YouTube of him watching J.T. O’Sullivan’s breakdown of HIM:
I think it takes a lot of maturity to publicly watch someone criticize your game and to accept the notes. DTR is a player who seems to desperately want to get better at playing quarterback and he has shown progress year after year after year…after year…after year. DTR had five seasons at UCLA, all with Chip Kelly, and he continued to get better ever year. Chris Simms recently ranked him as QB5, much higher than everyone else.
If the Seahawks don’t pick a QB at #5, do they see a wide disparity in draft value between the potential options available at #20 (Hendon Hooker, Will Levis as prime examples) and the Day 2/Day 3 guys like DTR? It’s very much like Pete and the Seahawks to not over-emphasize the QB position and to get a mature, experienced prospect who comes at a much lower draft value.
But I will list QB among possibilities for a simple reason: It’s the most valuable position in sports. If Anthony Richardson is on the board at #20, maybe that’s too good to pass up twice.
5 - Exceptions at Weak Positions
Value to the Seahawks: “Is this position a good value at this stage in the draft?”
Value to the Seahawks: “Is there a player in this group who could start for us right now because we don’t have an entrenched starter now?”
Value to Pete Carroll: “How important is his position and/or role on our football team?”
Why NFL might de-value: “How is this position valued in the NFL right now: In terms of salary cap space allocation and draft picks?”
It could come to a point where Seattle does set aside the position and draft a great football player or thinks, “Well, we just can’t get a guy near as good as this with our next pick, so let’s take him here…”
Examples would be: Safety Brian Branch, running back Bijan Robinson, or maybe their top-rated linebacker of which there isn’t a clearcut favorite.
I think tight end can be had later. I think outside cornerback is just too unusual for Pete Carroll…Branch is essentially a cornerback, just in the slot. This could be the way that Seattle goes, but would it need to come to that? Robinson might be the best all-around player if he falls this far in the draft and give the Seahawks a no-brainer decision. Will he make it out of the top-12?
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RT is an interesting thought. I really haven't focused much on the 1st round Tackles much so I really don't know who would be the best fit at RT or potentially G/C. Hopefully, if they think it is a real possibility, they have discussed the possible move with Lucas. I more like the thought of letting them fight it out in camp and the guy who does best each week gets to start at RT in preseson games. Try Haynes at Center a little so that he can backup at all 3 interior positions and draft another Center prospect on Day 3.
WR is a real conundrum for me. Not sure I like the value vs what I see coming on Day 2. I am just personally not convinced with any of them as true first round talent or rather that they just being hyped that way.
QB is in play at any time based on who is left. If Levis is there then let him continue to slide. Richardson would have value here and maaaaaybe Hooker.
I like the thought of LB with this pick and the only guy I would want at #20 is Trenton Simpson. With Bobby in place to lead the front 7 Simpson could be deployed in the middle until Brooks returns (I have worries about him returning at all this season) and then they can compete to play next to Bobby until he decides to hang em up. Simpson can also be used as a PR guy as an OLB in the 3-4. Drew Sanders on Day 2 would be the consolation prize if we miss out on Simpson because I don't think Sanders ends up a 1st RD pick.
I actually love the thought of going Edge-DT or DT-Edge. I hope everything goes our way and Anderson is just sitting there waiting for us but highly unlikely. If they do take Carter it would hopefully be with a little later pick or at #20 if his slide continues. I love the thought of Bresee at 20 and Foskey is a guy I have been interested in for a while. If they Draft Carter I would get his running mate Nolan Smith. They should already know how to play off each other. If it's Andersen I go Bresee and then top it off with To'o To'o on day 2 or another Clemson guy. Instant chemistry will lead to better play by both guys.
It looks more and more likely we will draft Carter at 5 IMO, and once that is done, I think we can relax and take BPA after that. WR is even in the mix then. Yet, if Bijan is available at 20, I still believe he is nearly as good a WR prospect as any of the actual WR's in this class.
Bijan at 20 if he is still available. If he's gone, I give up on RB's until much later, unless Achane is still available after 37. Say 52 or even 87. Achane is essentially a WR, but is experienced in the run game as well.