Seahawks 2024 draft: What I got wrong
Seahawks 2024 draft: What I got wrong
5 predictions I got wrong before the Seahawks 2024 draft: Seaside Joe 1885
“You know far less about yourself than you feel you do.”
I’m re-reading “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman and that’s one of MANY great quotes and lessons to be learned from that book. There is no job, industry, or role that I can think of in this world that wouldn’t benefit from reading “Thinking” and being an NFL general manager who has to judge the quality of players and prospects as it relates to their FUTURE success is up there in terms of who would stand to benefit the most from these lessons by Kahneman.
Truly if you take nothing else from today’s article and you stop right now, read that book.
Second, read this article.
I don’t know what I don’t know about myself, but as long as I know that I don’t know, then maybe I stand a chance of being humbled by my ignorance and striving to get closer to excellence tomorrow. That’s why Seaside Joe is constantly checking himself, correcting himself, and pointing out his faults in a public forum so that not only can I hopefully be better in the future…you can also see what mistakes I make and maybe we’ll all stand to benefit from that audit.
There were many prognostications, predictions (which if you read Thinking you will know are probably mostly wrong), statements, and feelings shared on this newsletter before the 2024 NFL Draft. How right was I?
Screw that…How WRONG was I? That’s what we are going to get into on Monday, April 29th, 2024…the 1,885th consecutive day that Seaside Joe has sent out at least one Seahawks newsletter to Seahawks fans.
Byron Murphy didn’t go top-10
As soon as the Bears picked Rome Odunze, it seemed apparent to me that a great defensive prospect was now falling to the Seahawks at 16 between Byron Murphy, Laiatu Latu, Dallas Turner, and Quinyon Mitchell. The board had the Jets, who would pick offense; the Vikings, who would pick a QB; the Broncos, who would likely pick Bo Nix even if he’s QB6; the Raiders, who are the Raiders; and the Saints, a team that almost always picks offensive line with its first pick.
Once New Orleans picked tackle Taliese Fuaga, the Seahawks would get a choice between Latu and Murphy, although I wouldn’t be surprised if Latu’s medical history took him off of Seattle’s board that early in the draft. The Colts picked Latu over Murphy perhaps only because they signed Raekwon Davis to a two-year, $14 million deal in free agency and he’s not even set to start, setting in motion an opportunity for the Seahawks to draft the top-ranked defensive prospect on a lot of boards.
I didn’t think that would happen, writing this before the draft:
Byron Murphy? I’m not expecting anyone to make it that far who shouldn’t make it that far down the draft order. If you’re available 6-8 spots below the expectation, there’s probably be a good reason for it.
On Byron Murphy, I believe he will be a top-10 pick and well out of Seattle’s range.
I might choose Byron Murphy II, but I believe he will be a top-10 pick. If Murphy is on the board at 16, maybe he would be the choice.
The “good reason” for Murphy dropping to 16 was simply a run on over-drafting quarterbacks Michael Penix, J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix. You had the Falcons re-writing draft rules to the Vikings and Broncos failing to secure acceptable fallback options and backing themselves into a corner to pick quarterbacks all of whom entered draft season with day two grades.
Because these needs were quarterbacks instead of cornerbacks or receivers or any other position, teams were beholden to unwritten rules of not trading down and then risking the loss of McCarthy or Nix. So teams also probably couldn’t trade up for Murphy and Latu.
I wrote that Brock Bowers could be the “Derwin James” pick of the 2024 draft, the prospect who was universally praised as a top-5 prospect who then falls to the teens for reasons nobody can explain. Well, it turns out that Bowers went 13th to the Raiders, so that is kind of what happened but maybe Byron Murphy is the closer comparison to James or Kyle Hamilton in 2022. Unlike Turner, who was 8th-to-the-Falcons in every mock, Murphy didn’t get that kind of love in the media until days before the draft. On Thursday, buzz was building that Murphy could be Atlanta’s pick and the first defensive player off of the board.
When the Falcons turned lefty instead of right, everything changed and it was as good as saying that as long as Chicago went offense at nine that the top defensive prospects were going 5-6 picks later than the expectation.
Indeed many people have said in the last 3-4 days that the Seahawks got an absolute steal with Murphy at 16. I’ve been repeating that Michael Lombardi’s show The GM Shuffle is better than 99% of what else is out there because regardless of his record as an NFL general manager (which is heavily predicted on luck), Lombardi isn’t afraid to criticize bad moves, bad coaches, bad players, and bad GMs like almost everyone else is. On picking Murphy, Lombardi still can’t believe teams let him drop to the Seahawks at 16.
Chris Simms was also surprised Murphy made it to 16. I’ve queued up his Seahawks thoughts here:
I think that a lot of people felt that Murphy was fairly judged as the 14th-18th best prospect in the draft, so it doesn’t seem like 16 should be a “steal”. However, it’s the fact that teams picked second tier QBs and OTs and Brock Bowers over a defensive player who may be far and away better than his competition is what I think has people praising Seattle for getting lucky with their opportunity here when Murphy should have gone top-12.
How to prepare for this next year: Always expect a team in the top-10 to throw a wrench in your plans for what comes next
If you’re a free subscriber to Seaside Joe, then you’ve already read an article that’s at least as long and detailed as what you’ll find from other writers at no cost to you if you stop right here. But if you upgrade to Regular Joes for only $5 per month, or less if you sign up for a full year, there’s much more of this article left to read. It’s the best deal in the Seahawks universe.