Seahawks draft predictions: My final pick for 2024

3 scenarios for what the Seahawks will do in the 2024 NFL Draft's first round: Seaside Joe 1881

I don’t think predicting the Seattle Seahawks to pick Devon Witherspoon last year was as difficult as you’d imagine given that Witherspoon only had the eighth-best odds to be the choice. Everything you see in Witherspoon now is what I saw in Witherspoon before the draft, so knowing that why wouldn’t he be Seattle’s choice over the other options?

Predicting this year’s first round choice for the Seahawks is exponentially more difficult at 16, so that’s why instead of giving you one final answer I’m going to lay out three scenarios and then tell you which of those I find to be the most likely. Some fans weren’t pleased with Witherspoon over Jalen Carter, but I bet they’ll be even more dissatisfied with my prediction this year.

Does the phrase, “Seahawks make fans wait…” sound familiar?

Scenario #1

Seahawks stick-and-pick: EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State

There’s a good chance that if Seattle picks anyone at 16 that it will be someone who they wined and dined at least a little bit, just as they did with Witherspoon in 2023. One such prospect who was flown to Seattle is Jared Verse and he checks more boxes than the rest of the prospects who I expect to have a probability of availability at 16.

I might choose Byron Murphy II, but I believe he will be a top-10 pick. If Murphy is on the board at 16, maybe he would be the choice. I think this could be a spot for Illinois defensive tackle Johnny Newton, but I don’t know if his grade is significantly higher than the DTs who will be available on day two. This seems too high to me for Cooper DeJean and Graham Barton, but is there ever such a thing as “too soon” in the Seahawks draft world? If Schneider has a cluster of prospects he likes including DeJean, Barton, and Newton, wouldn’t the first move be trading down?

Troy Fautanu had a late report of a medical red flag on his knee, potentially just one more obstacle standing in between him and being Seattle’s pick, as I don’t expect them to pick Fautanu despite his connection to Ryan Grubb and offensive line coach Scott Huff; would teammate Roger Rosengarten be a better value on day two? Is Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell or Georgia tight end Brock Bowers going to drop out of the top-15 and if they do, would Schneider see either of them as ‘must-haves’ over adding draft capital when the tight end and cornerback rooms aren’t necessarily demanding more players?

If the Seahawks draft Bowers or LSU receiver Brian Thomas or Texas receiver AD Mitchell, doesn’t that imply an immediate trade for DK Metcalf? I have a hard time believing that Metcalf (or the re-signed Noah Fant for that matter) would be happy with Seattle adding a first round receiver in back-to-back years, as if they weren’t already hungry for more targets.

And I’ll be surprised if Schneider believes that should a quarterback like J.J. McCarthy or Michael Penix be available to them at 16 that they would be viewed as franchise players worthy of bypassing players at other positions. I think Sam Howell was the move and that’s it for now or until the Seahawks maybe kick the tires on Devin Leary or John Rhys Plumlee on day three.

Leaving me with Jared Verse.

If the Seahawks want to build up the roster “The Ravens Way” as I wrote on Tuesday, Verse doesn’t exactly fit the mold because Mike Macdonald’s defense excelled at the edge positions with veteran journeymen Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy. The only first round pick recently has been Odafe Oweh, a disappointment so far and a late first round pick at that. When Baltimore’s been drafting in the middle of the first round, they picked secondary players like Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey.

But the Ravens didn’t necessarily have the opportunity to draft someone like Verse those years and would welcome any outstanding defensive prospects regardless of position. Edge rusher continues to be valued around the league at a higher draft pick/contract amount than safeties and cornerbacks, so if the Seahawks were implored to turn down trade offers because of any prospect then I think it would be Verse, not DeJean or Fautanu.

At 6’4, 254 lbs with 33.5” arms and a 4.58 40-yard dash, 1.60 10-yard split, 4.44 20-yard shuttle, 31 bench reps, and a 35” vertical, Verse ranked sixth in athleticism score at the combine for edge rushers, but also third in production score after two years at Florida State. His NFL.com comp is LaMarr Woodley, a former standout edge rusher on the Steelers who had his career cut short due to injuries.

A former tight end at the start of his career at Albany, Verse switched to defense in 2019 and added 40 lbs of muscle during the pandemic to play edge rusher, then in his first season was honored as the CAA Defensive Rookie of the Year with 10 TFL in four games. The next year he had 9.5 sacks in 11 games, then transferred to Florida State in 2022 and posted 29 tackles for a loss over 25 games between 2022-2023. Here’s the Zierlein write-up:

Talented edge defender with the field demeanor, athleticism and skill set to rack up statistics in key categories fairly early in his NFL career. Verse dominated at Albany and then showed an ability to do the same at Florida State. He’s twitchy and compact, with explosiveness featured at the point of attack and in his upfield burst as a pass rusher. He’s great with his hands and does a nice job of diagnosing plays quickly and staying out of the clinches of offensive linemen looking to snatch him up. Verse's ability to threaten the edge only bolsters his hellish speed-to-power bull-rushing ability to run tackles deep into the pocket. He can play up or down and should be in consideration for all defensive schemes looking to add a safe, high-impact edge.

Jared Verse has the athleticism and college production resume to be as good of a mid-first steal as Brian Burns or Montez Sweat. He stands the same odds as maybe anyone else to be a first round bust too, but I don’t think anyone could be mad about the Seahawks picking Verse at 16 if that’s what they do; this is not a reach. It could be a steal and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Verse go in the first 12 picks in part because UCLA’s Laiatu Latu might fall for significant medical concerns and that leaves a pretty big gap beween Turner, Verse, Latu, then the “Chop Robinson tier” after that.

Maybe the Seahawks will feel like they can get an edge prospect if they trade down and choose someone like Missouri’s Darius Robinson, who they’ll know isn’t as good of a prospect but with his absurd length might be undervalued relative to draft position. Robinson has that “Seahawks reach” quality about him that will conjur up memories of L.J. Collier. But if Seattle just isn’t getting the trade offers they want, Murphy and Mitchell are already off the board, and they have this player ranked well above the prospects 10-15 spots later, then I think the pick is:

Jared Verse.

However…

Scenario #2

Seahawks trade down to 22-32: DB Cooper DeJean, Iowa

Three weeks ago, I proposed this trade with the Green Bay Packers:

Pick 16 for picks 25, 88, 169, and 202. In a poll, most of you approved those terms. Trading with the Packers is the most predictable because Schneider’s already done two draft day deals with Green Bay GM Brian Gutekunst since 2018, both times with the Seahawks moving down in the first round. Here we go again with the Seahawks probably wanting to move down, Green Bay being behind them and probably wanting to move up, plus the Packers have this many picks: 25, 41, 58, 88, 91, 126, 169, 202, 219, 245, and 255.

The Seahawks drop nine spots in the first round but add a third, a fifth, and a sixth. The third is a third, but the fifth and sixth could either be used on players or used as ammo to move up from 81 or 102 for a better day two prospect.

But Green Bay is hardly the only team behind Seattle that Schneider has a close relationship and trade history with: The Eagles at 22 are rumored to want to move up for a cornerback, so if Quinyon Mitchell is there at 16 then maybe Philly GM Howie Roseman will be willing to part with more than the draft trade chart indicates. Would he trade picks 22 and 50 and a fifth for picks 16 and 81? Seattle goes from one top-80 pick to two top-50 picks.

So the Eagles and Packers are the most likely teams, but the Cardinals are at 27 and have the power to move up as far as they want, the Bills could want to trade up and are known to be aggressive, the Lions could be aggressive from pick 29, and then there’s Macdonald’s friends in Baltimore holding pick 30.

At the end of any trades though, I think Iowa cornerback Cooper DeJean is a far more sensible pick at the end of the first round than in the middle of the first round. Like Verse, the Seahawks flew DeJean to Seattle for an in-person visit and I think he would make a lot of sense for Macdonald’s defense as a safety and a complement to Witherspoon. At maybe pick 25 or 30, not pick 16.

Why don’t the Eagles wait for DeJean if they want a corner? Because Mitchell and probably Nate Wiggins too, if not plenty others, are better CORNERBACK prospects than DeJean. Not many people view DeJean as a future starting outside cornerback in the NFL and that puts him a tier below others at the position getting first round grades. There are rumors floating out there that DeJean will go HIGHER—not lower—than expectations.

That’s fine, maybe that’s true. Maybe DeJean goes 14th to the Saints. I was just thinking about Donte Whitner being a top-10 pick and before the draft he was projected in the 30-40 range. It happens, I can’t rule anything out.

For me, the lack of evidence on tape that DeJean is fluid enough to turn and run with elite speed receivers in the NFL, the probability he’s going to play an entirely new position, the unknown value of adding kick returners at this point in time, this all points to him as a prospect who goes late day one if not early day two. I am PRO the Seahawks drafting Cooper DeJean, clearly, I just think that the move that happens first is trading down to increase Seattle’s capital between picks 30-60 since that’s where most of their pre-draft focus has been on…probably including their interest in DeJean.

Who else could the Seahawks be interested in here if they trade down since it’s impossible for anyone to tell you who will actually be left on the board? Duke’s Graham Barton is gaining steam for me, he’s not the traditional Schneider pick as a position but this would give fans what they want and Seattle a Week 1 starter at either center or guard. There’s this feeling in my bones that Barton will be an All-Pro, but I don’t see it happening at 16.

DB Ennis Rakestraw is another built in the mold of DeJean. I mentioned Darius Robinson as a sleeper here already. Or how about a different Florida State defensive lineman, Braden Fiske? I could see any move like those, I would be shocked if it was Penix, Bo Nix, Amarius Mims, or any skill position players.

However…What if the Seahawks first round pick is: Nobody?

Scenario #3

Seahawks trade out of the first round entirely: Starting with pick #33 on day 2

If we believe that the Seahawks are open to trading down, if not hopeful to trade down, then we must also accept that the fall doesn’t end with just one deal. Once Schneider goes from 16 to 25, why not see what he can get to go from 25 to 30 or 33?

In fact, pick 33 is a coveted position in the draft: It will give that GM an entire day to decide who to pick at #33 or like happened in 2023 when Will Levis dropped to day two, a powerful trading position for that team. (Levis was pick 33, but it was actually the second pick of day two because of the Dolphins being docked a first rounder.) The Cardinals got the Titans to give up a third round pick and a third round pick swap to move up for Levis.

As it so happens, the GM who owns pick 33 is Carolina’s Dan Morgan, a former protege of Schneider’s in Seattle.

Think of where the Panthers are in the draft now, holding no first round pick and having dire needs receiver, center, and cornerback…all positions that should have really good prospects on the board at 25 who could end up being drafted by the Bills, Lions, Ravens, 49ers, and Chiefs at the end of day one. Carolina could jump over those teams to get the player they covet like AD Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Graham Barton, Nate Wiggins, or what have you. The Panthers could trade up from 33 to 25 and they’d still own another second round pick at 39.

However, maybe Schneider could convince Morgan to trade him picks 33, 65, and 142 for picks 25 and 81. The Seahawks would improve their third round pick from the middle to the top of the round, add a fifth, and be on the clock when Day 2 begins on Friday. Then Schneider and company get about 24 hours to reassess all the options who didn’t make it on day one. Is that so bad? Remember our 2020 draft recall on Wednesday, as many second round picks have out-played their first round counterparts.

If the Seahawks execute two proposed trades in this article, they go from holding picks 16, 81, 102, and 118 in the first five rounds to holding picks 33, 65, 88, 102, 118, 142, and 169.

That’s an increase of four picks to seven picks by going down 17 spots with their first choice. Is this realistic? I KNOW that it is realistic, it’s just not really going to happen. Predicting two trades with all these picks is ludicrous, but I think this is a fair example of what John Schneider would like to happen: He goes from picking just one player in the top-80 to picking three of the top-90 and I believe that Barton, DeJean, Rakestraw, Fiske…these are players who could be on the board at pick 33. This is a route towards picking one of your favorite first round prospects (let’s say Barton) and one of two of your favorite day two players (let’s say linebacker Junior Colson and defensive tackle Brandon Dorlus) but also a little more capital on day three to keep filling out a roster than needs more cost-controlled players on rookie deals.

Coming up with the exact details of two trades IS farfetched, but predicting that the Seahawks will trade out of the first round entirely is NOT farfetched. In fact…

My ultimate first round prediction: Nobody

If forced to choose one of three scenarios, I’m going with the Seahawks trading out of the first round. Specifically, I think Schneider should target Morgan’s pick at #33 to be in the best position for day two.

If they stick, Verse. If they trade down once, DeJean (or Barton or Rakestraw or Newton…). But if they get the chance to: Trade down multiple times.

It’s not going to be as exciting as Witherspoon in 2023 if I’m right, but it is what I give the highest likelihood to as far as outcomes on Thursday.

What are your predictions? Put them in the comments and if you want to be in our live draft chat for Seaside Joe, get the Substack app and sign up for Regular Joes as it will only be available to premium members.