I think it’s fair that Russ would have the same odds of winning the MVP award as Geno. He’s a Super Bowl winner, has a much better track record as a player, and there’s excitement about his new coach. And it’s not as if either have been given decent odds to win it. -3500 is a huge long shot. Which they both are. Russ looked broken last year. Geno cooled off considerably by the end of the season. Neither team appears to be a Super Bowl contender at the moment, though I consider Seattle to be closer.
These are degenerate bets though. Even taking an early line on week one is a blind bet at this point. But if I had $100 I never wanted to see again, I’d be all over that -5.5 line at home against the Rams.
I created an extra bonus article today, the first of its kind, because to my surprise quite a few people decided to support at the $120 level, and I did so without any intentions of making anyone feel excluded or left out or that they weren't getting what they paid for as a Regular Joes bonus member. For sure not a single thing about the Regular Joes club has changed, it's still supporting the 365-400 free articles per year and getting the 3-5 bonus articles per week. I'm literally just one guy trying to make a living off of this and unbeknownst to me came folks who decided to pay $10 per month and I would just feel bad if I didn't do anything to say "Thank you" just the same as I feel bad if I don't write a free article every day and just as I feel bad if I don't give $5 subscribers a lot of bonus content too.
Certainly I don't see this as a doomsday move that will mean that by next week the entire website is $10 per month, there's a reason why I've created a free article for the last 1,536 days or whatever it is. I didn't intend to make anyone feel like they didn't get what they paid for or to feel bad myself, but still it makes me feel bad to read any comments from people who feel that way. I'm just one guy trying to do my best and as always I don't follow others footsteps, I carve out new roads, just as I did with this newsletter, which means trying things out and taking it from there organically. There's no diabolical plan behind the scenes to rip anyone off.
I respect anyone who feels like it's unfair that they didn't get to read today's Founding Members article and I ask that hopefully you can see it from my perspective and that I am just trying something out and that the only thing I know how to do as a reward or a "thanks" is to write more articles. It's the only thing I know how to do, so that's why that was written. That's it. There are certainly plans for the future to show what's behind that door and you can choose for yourself if it's worth it. As noted recently, this is still the cheapest substack on substack and with the most content. I'll work even harder to prove that to you and thanks for sticking around.
Ken, keep testing things and don’t let haters make you change anything. $5/mo is incredibly cheap for the amount and quality of content you provide. I pay $15/mo for access to the Seattle Times and all I read is the sports section. And I get WAAAAY more value and entertainment from seaside Joe, at a fraction of the cost.
Anyone complaining about $10/mo to access certain articles is being ridiculous. Charge as much as you want, you’re a brilliant writer and one of a kind.
Since I'm the one who voiced concern about a two tiered subscription, I'll again share my sense of things. By no means am I wanting to prevent you from making a living or being successful in this endeavor. I've considered Seaside Joe well worth $5 per month and, in fact, have not gone to the $55 per year subscription because I wanted you to have the extra $5 per year that staying monthly results in. If you had raised the price to $6 per month, I'd not have said a word.
That being said, I'm not someone who spends tons of money on sports. These days tickets have become so expensive that I don't even think about going to games. I don't buy jerseys or other gear for the same reason. If the cost were $10 per month, I'd probably duck out, not because what you produce isn't adequate content to justify the price, but more just because it wouldn't be worth it to me. I'm not that fanatical a fan. I'm sure there are many who are. There are probably others who are not. I appreciate that you need to find the right price point to maximize the return on your efforts. It that excludes me, so be it. Seaside Joe has been a good thing in my life but nothing lasts forever.
I ask myself what would it take for me to be willing to pay $10 per month, since I'm guessing I'm not the only one who tends toward frugality. The answer isn't more articles. I'd pay $10 per month if there were interactive podcasts that let us talk to you and to each other. I'd pay $10 per month to preserve the sense of a smaller community with more interpersonal dialog.
Perhaps if we had big Zoom meetings to watch games (or the draft) together. Or if you did some podcasts with interesting guests with opportunities to ask questions. If that doesn't work for you, perhaps there's some other way to give those willing to pay more better access to you, personally, and to each other. Maybe people who pay more could have your email address and the opportunity to send questions, which might then get reposted to others paying $10 per month, the answer to which (yours and that of other insightful members) might sometimes become posts on Seaside Joe for everyone to read.
This has become a nice community, which more than anything else is why I would prefer to stick around. I imagine that, as it grows, we'll likely lose that. That's another phenomenon I've seen before. When blogs first became a thing, around the year 2000, I was a subscriber to a few that have since grown and morphed into much larger endeavors. In those days, they were primarily politically focused, but like Seaside Joe, they were also communities of a sort. One got to know people, or at least feel like one knew them, even though we had never met in person or knew each other by face or by name. Eventually, people started organizing meet-ups. Sometimes regional meet-ups because those communities tended to have a national or even international following. We have the advantage of probably being clustered in the Pacific Northwest.
What happened over time was they grew so big that the sense of community went away. One got bought up by a major media outlet, the New York Times, and became something new. Another, talkingpointsmemo, is still around, but it's not a community anymore and I don't subsrcibe, though it offers insightful commentary. I stopped subscribing when they went to a multi-tiered model because that left me feeling like a second-class citizen and the sense of community that might have kept me around anyway was long gone by then.
Thanks for voicing your thoughts. If it turns out that the tier is not for you, that's perfectly understandable, it's not for everybody. Many people have opted for the free sub and not the $5 sub that opens up bonus articles and ability to comment and they don't reach out to me about it being unfair, they just enjoy the free sub and I enjoy them reading it for free. That seems to be working for everybody. Thanks again, I've read your thoughts, and we'll see how things proceed, but not subscribing to that tier is perfectly okay by me, everyone has their own priorities. Have a good day.
IF, ( big if) The Hawks do improve a fair amount against the run the 12-5 is certainly not out of the picture- at least 11-6. I see the O-line being better than last year- The WR 's should be better with a real #3 and choices at TE- The Rb's ,unless there are multiple injuries should be very good- Run D-line still a question - LB's should be OK this year ( ? on run support from OSLB ? ) Corners and safeties should be great ,but an upgrade or upgraded play at least at Nickel is needed- GO HAWKS!
I think Vegas should refund your gambling losses, because clearly the 49ers should have takes Jones instead of Lance, and it's not fair that you should loose money for being a better GM than John Lynch. Maybe instead, Lynch should just send you a check and an apology note.
I have a feeling we will overperform again this year. 12-5. There I said it. I am relying on mystic powers with that prediction, not football smarts. If I am correct, do not burn me at the stake, please.
It looks a good to be an optimist. 12-5 translates to the moves this year are as good as the moves last year. Why the Seahawks get there - they are the second or third best team in the NFC. Why they don’t they are again the fifth or sixth best team in the NFC.
Kenneth, how can I email you to discuss my subscription? For the first time today, I was unable to comment on an article because you've gone to a two-tier plan. Though I love your site, I'm actually more inclined to give up my subscription than to double what I pay. Please let me know how I can get hold of you to discuss it. Thanks.
I signed up and am paying for premium content but am not now getting it. How much longer until the price goes up to $440 per year for what I was getting yesterday for $60 per year?
There's literally one article that was created for people who have opted to pay $120. That's it. Every so often there will be a bonus article for people who pay a $5 difference without any changes to the regular bonus articles or the hundreds of free articles. Over the course of Seaside Joe's history, I've created about 2,000 articles and made about $1.50 per article.
I don't begrudge you, Kenneth. I more question the model. I've faced this in the past, where I've been a member of a website and then a second tier of membership was introduced. My response until now has always been to cancel membership, though I probably would not have if the monthly or yearly amount had been raised a small amount. In other words, I think it would go down better to raise the rate for everyone to $6 per month than to create a second tier. Because now, for all of us who are on tier one, we're no longer full members but, rather, junior or compromised members. That's even if there's only one article per year because who's to say one won't lead to two to three to four?
I would have contacted you privately to discuss this if I had your email address. Couldn't find a way to PM you on the website. It's ultimately your choice how to run things and then my choice how to respond. I'm being open and up front about my thoughts on this because I like and respect your website. For the longest time, I've stuck with $5 per month rather than going to $55 per year so you would get the extra $5. When I saw I couldn't post today, I tried changing to an annual membership and that didn't work. So I switched back and reached out to you to discuss this.
Well, I didn't say it was going to be one article per year. There's just one article right now, so definitely prepare yourself for more articles.
I appreciate you not begrudging me. There's going to be a tiny bit of extra bonus content in addition to 500+ articles that go to the normal bonus content. That's it.
Agreed, that was a surprise. As I understand it, you want us to double our payment to get the same content (using last year's Kenneth Walker series as an example) as last year?
You're reacting to the first day of one article and with a bit of a doomsday outlook, without seeing how it plays out. It's been active for a couple of hours. And I create hundreds of bonus articles per year that you can read and 365 free articles that I don't get paid for at all. This is the first day of one article that is available for anyone who chooses to try it out, let's be as rational about this as we are about football around here.
Imagine you have a "favorite sandwich shop" where everyday you get a free sandwich and then one day you go in and there's still the same free sandwich but then there's also a $5 sandwich for anyone who decides they want to try a $5 sandwich. You can choose to ignore the sandwich, you don't need to tell the shop owner off for happening to include an extra sandwich for those who want it because he wants to be able to pay his shop owner bills.
Not telling you off. I like you, and truthfully when I started reading your stuff (on Facebook or Twitter, I forget) I never thought how hard it would be for you to publish something every day. It's mind bending how prolific you are, especially if you think about all the research you have to put in. And you have another job? Still, the Regular Joe Club thing came out of the blue.
If I were a gambler (which I'm not) and if I were going to Las Vegas (which I'm not) I'd put $100 on our beloved Seahawks winning 9+ games and Tariq Woolen Getting DPOY. I think I'd come out at least even. And I've spent more money on stupider stuff, so, you know, what the hell....
Picked Russ over Geno, because for the MVP, reputation will work heavily in Russ's favour vs Geno. Although, i'm not sure either player will get any vote at all and you didn't give a "Won't be a Factor" option. But you know, credit to you hardcore fans that see Geno holding the advantage, I hope you're correct.
Lions over Cowboys. I don't see this years 'Boys team being any better than previous ones with Dak at QB, whilst this Lions team is definitely better. Maybe i'm getting too much into the Lions hype but I really believe they will be a key factor in the NFC. Threat on the AFC side is much harder. Ravens seem to have addressed the main weaknesses, but the injury threat looms large. I'm not buying into the Jets hype at all, Chargers will be the Chargers and fumble their chances yet again (I have my fingers crossed Herbert just get's too frustrated there and we can swoop in on a shock deal to sneak him up the coast). Fins are the main challenger to the Ravens, they'll be fun. Jags also close but overall still a step back in talent.
Anyway, don't make bets with major bookies. I only ever make bets amongst mates, where we know each others limits & can be far far more creative with the bets we make. I'd rather my friend got $20 off me because the mascot faceplanted during the halftime entertainment, than the multi-millionaire (probably billionaire) owner of some mega-corp got it
Bets amongst mates, as you say, but it makes me sound like a brit. I just don't trust whoever owns online gambling. I'd never feel safe again, knowing they have my credit card number.
I don’t gamble on sports. When I want to spend crazy money, I go up to Canada and buy Cuban cigars. I give SJ credit for making this topic as entertaining as possible, but beyond that...snore. Let’s face it: the NFL is pretty non-newsworthy or interesting at this time of year.
How/where are you guys placing these bets? Isn’t sports gambling illegal in WA?
I think it’s fair that Russ would have the same odds of winning the MVP award as Geno. He’s a Super Bowl winner, has a much better track record as a player, and there’s excitement about his new coach. And it’s not as if either have been given decent odds to win it. -3500 is a huge long shot. Which they both are. Russ looked broken last year. Geno cooled off considerably by the end of the season. Neither team appears to be a Super Bowl contender at the moment, though I consider Seattle to be closer.
These are degenerate bets though. Even taking an early line on week one is a blind bet at this point. But if I had $100 I never wanted to see again, I’d be all over that -5.5 line at home against the Rams.
I created an extra bonus article today, the first of its kind, because to my surprise quite a few people decided to support at the $120 level, and I did so without any intentions of making anyone feel excluded or left out or that they weren't getting what they paid for as a Regular Joes bonus member. For sure not a single thing about the Regular Joes club has changed, it's still supporting the 365-400 free articles per year and getting the 3-5 bonus articles per week. I'm literally just one guy trying to make a living off of this and unbeknownst to me came folks who decided to pay $10 per month and I would just feel bad if I didn't do anything to say "Thank you" just the same as I feel bad if I don't write a free article every day and just as I feel bad if I don't give $5 subscribers a lot of bonus content too.
Certainly I don't see this as a doomsday move that will mean that by next week the entire website is $10 per month, there's a reason why I've created a free article for the last 1,536 days or whatever it is. I didn't intend to make anyone feel like they didn't get what they paid for or to feel bad myself, but still it makes me feel bad to read any comments from people who feel that way. I'm just one guy trying to do my best and as always I don't follow others footsteps, I carve out new roads, just as I did with this newsletter, which means trying things out and taking it from there organically. There's no diabolical plan behind the scenes to rip anyone off.
I respect anyone who feels like it's unfair that they didn't get to read today's Founding Members article and I ask that hopefully you can see it from my perspective and that I am just trying something out and that the only thing I know how to do as a reward or a "thanks" is to write more articles. It's the only thing I know how to do, so that's why that was written. That's it. There are certainly plans for the future to show what's behind that door and you can choose for yourself if it's worth it. As noted recently, this is still the cheapest substack on substack and with the most content. I'll work even harder to prove that to you and thanks for sticking around.
Ken, keep testing things and don’t let haters make you change anything. $5/mo is incredibly cheap for the amount and quality of content you provide. I pay $15/mo for access to the Seattle Times and all I read is the sports section. And I get WAAAAY more value and entertainment from seaside Joe, at a fraction of the cost.
Anyone complaining about $10/mo to access certain articles is being ridiculous. Charge as much as you want, you’re a brilliant writer and one of a kind.
Since I'm the one who voiced concern about a two tiered subscription, I'll again share my sense of things. By no means am I wanting to prevent you from making a living or being successful in this endeavor. I've considered Seaside Joe well worth $5 per month and, in fact, have not gone to the $55 per year subscription because I wanted you to have the extra $5 per year that staying monthly results in. If you had raised the price to $6 per month, I'd not have said a word.
That being said, I'm not someone who spends tons of money on sports. These days tickets have become so expensive that I don't even think about going to games. I don't buy jerseys or other gear for the same reason. If the cost were $10 per month, I'd probably duck out, not because what you produce isn't adequate content to justify the price, but more just because it wouldn't be worth it to me. I'm not that fanatical a fan. I'm sure there are many who are. There are probably others who are not. I appreciate that you need to find the right price point to maximize the return on your efforts. It that excludes me, so be it. Seaside Joe has been a good thing in my life but nothing lasts forever.
I ask myself what would it take for me to be willing to pay $10 per month, since I'm guessing I'm not the only one who tends toward frugality. The answer isn't more articles. I'd pay $10 per month if there were interactive podcasts that let us talk to you and to each other. I'd pay $10 per month to preserve the sense of a smaller community with more interpersonal dialog.
Perhaps if we had big Zoom meetings to watch games (or the draft) together. Or if you did some podcasts with interesting guests with opportunities to ask questions. If that doesn't work for you, perhaps there's some other way to give those willing to pay more better access to you, personally, and to each other. Maybe people who pay more could have your email address and the opportunity to send questions, which might then get reposted to others paying $10 per month, the answer to which (yours and that of other insightful members) might sometimes become posts on Seaside Joe for everyone to read.
This has become a nice community, which more than anything else is why I would prefer to stick around. I imagine that, as it grows, we'll likely lose that. That's another phenomenon I've seen before. When blogs first became a thing, around the year 2000, I was a subscriber to a few that have since grown and morphed into much larger endeavors. In those days, they were primarily politically focused, but like Seaside Joe, they were also communities of a sort. One got to know people, or at least feel like one knew them, even though we had never met in person or knew each other by face or by name. Eventually, people started organizing meet-ups. Sometimes regional meet-ups because those communities tended to have a national or even international following. We have the advantage of probably being clustered in the Pacific Northwest.
What happened over time was they grew so big that the sense of community went away. One got bought up by a major media outlet, the New York Times, and became something new. Another, talkingpointsmemo, is still around, but it's not a community anymore and I don't subsrcibe, though it offers insightful commentary. I stopped subscribing when they went to a multi-tiered model because that left me feeling like a second-class citizen and the sense of community that might have kept me around anyway was long gone by then.
Thanks for voicing your thoughts. If it turns out that the tier is not for you, that's perfectly understandable, it's not for everybody. Many people have opted for the free sub and not the $5 sub that opens up bonus articles and ability to comment and they don't reach out to me about it being unfair, they just enjoy the free sub and I enjoy them reading it for free. That seems to be working for everybody. Thanks again, I've read your thoughts, and we'll see how things proceed, but not subscribing to that tier is perfectly okay by me, everyone has their own priorities. Have a good day.
IF, ( big if) The Hawks do improve a fair amount against the run the 12-5 is certainly not out of the picture- at least 11-6. I see the O-line being better than last year- The WR 's should be better with a real #3 and choices at TE- The Rb's ,unless there are multiple injuries should be very good- Run D-line still a question - LB's should be OK this year ( ? on run support from OSLB ? ) Corners and safeties should be great ,but an upgrade or upgraded play at least at Nickel is needed- GO HAWKS!
I think Vegas should refund your gambling losses, because clearly the 49ers should have takes Jones instead of Lance, and it's not fair that you should loose money for being a better GM than John Lynch. Maybe instead, Lynch should just send you a check and an apology note.
I have a feeling we will overperform again this year. 12-5. There I said it. I am relying on mystic powers with that prediction, not football smarts. If I am correct, do not burn me at the stake, please.
It looks a good to be an optimist. 12-5 translates to the moves this year are as good as the moves last year. Why the Seahawks get there - they are the second or third best team in the NFC. Why they don’t they are again the fifth or sixth best team in the NFC.
Bet on Seaside Joe? That’s surely poor odds. Ain’t nobody gonna beat Joe. It’s a one hawk race.
8.5 seems right. I went under. I don't have enough confidence in either Hurtt or Waldron yet.
I also like Green Bay with Jordan Love at +3500.
Kenneth, how can I email you to discuss my subscription? For the first time today, I was unable to comment on an article because you've gone to a two-tier plan. Though I love your site, I'm actually more inclined to give up my subscription than to double what I pay. Please let me know how I can get hold of you to discuss it. Thanks.
I signed up and am paying for premium content but am not now getting it. How much longer until the price goes up to $440 per year for what I was getting yesterday for $60 per year?
There's literally one article that was created for people who have opted to pay $120. That's it. Every so often there will be a bonus article for people who pay a $5 difference without any changes to the regular bonus articles or the hundreds of free articles. Over the course of Seaside Joe's history, I've created about 2,000 articles and made about $1.50 per article.
I don't begrudge you, Kenneth. I more question the model. I've faced this in the past, where I've been a member of a website and then a second tier of membership was introduced. My response until now has always been to cancel membership, though I probably would not have if the monthly or yearly amount had been raised a small amount. In other words, I think it would go down better to raise the rate for everyone to $6 per month than to create a second tier. Because now, for all of us who are on tier one, we're no longer full members but, rather, junior or compromised members. That's even if there's only one article per year because who's to say one won't lead to two to three to four?
I would have contacted you privately to discuss this if I had your email address. Couldn't find a way to PM you on the website. It's ultimately your choice how to run things and then my choice how to respond. I'm being open and up front about my thoughts on this because I like and respect your website. For the longest time, I've stuck with $5 per month rather than going to $55 per year so you would get the extra $5. When I saw I couldn't post today, I tried changing to an annual membership and that didn't work. So I switched back and reached out to you to discuss this.
Well, I didn't say it was going to be one article per year. There's just one article right now, so definitely prepare yourself for more articles.
I appreciate you not begrudging me. There's going to be a tiny bit of extra bonus content in addition to 500+ articles that go to the normal bonus content. That's it.
Yea, I don't get what the two tier thing is. I vote against it.
Agreed, that was a surprise. As I understand it, you want us to double our payment to get the same content (using last year's Kenneth Walker series as an example) as last year?
No, there's one different article, everything else is exactly the same.
One today. Another one later this week. Three more next week...
You're reacting to the first day of one article and with a bit of a doomsday outlook, without seeing how it plays out. It's been active for a couple of hours. And I create hundreds of bonus articles per year that you can read and 365 free articles that I don't get paid for at all. This is the first day of one article that is available for anyone who chooses to try it out, let's be as rational about this as we are about football around here.
Imagine you have a "favorite sandwich shop" where everyday you get a free sandwich and then one day you go in and there's still the same free sandwich but then there's also a $5 sandwich for anyone who decides they want to try a $5 sandwich. You can choose to ignore the sandwich, you don't need to tell the shop owner off for happening to include an extra sandwich for those who want it because he wants to be able to pay his shop owner bills.
Not telling you off. I like you, and truthfully when I started reading your stuff (on Facebook or Twitter, I forget) I never thought how hard it would be for you to publish something every day. It's mind bending how prolific you are, especially if you think about all the research you have to put in. And you have another job? Still, the Regular Joe Club thing came out of the blue.
If I were a gambler (which I'm not) and if I were going to Las Vegas (which I'm not) I'd put $100 on our beloved Seahawks winning 9+ games and Tariq Woolen Getting DPOY. I think I'd come out at least even. And I've spent more money on stupider stuff, so, you know, what the hell....
Too funny: Let’s put the fear of Blair Walsh in them.
Picked Russ over Geno, because for the MVP, reputation will work heavily in Russ's favour vs Geno. Although, i'm not sure either player will get any vote at all and you didn't give a "Won't be a Factor" option. But you know, credit to you hardcore fans that see Geno holding the advantage, I hope you're correct.
Lions over Cowboys. I don't see this years 'Boys team being any better than previous ones with Dak at QB, whilst this Lions team is definitely better. Maybe i'm getting too much into the Lions hype but I really believe they will be a key factor in the NFC. Threat on the AFC side is much harder. Ravens seem to have addressed the main weaknesses, but the injury threat looms large. I'm not buying into the Jets hype at all, Chargers will be the Chargers and fumble their chances yet again (I have my fingers crossed Herbert just get's too frustrated there and we can swoop in on a shock deal to sneak him up the coast). Fins are the main challenger to the Ravens, they'll be fun. Jags also close but overall still a step back in talent.
Anyway, don't make bets with major bookies. I only ever make bets amongst mates, where we know each others limits & can be far far more creative with the bets we make. I'd rather my friend got $20 off me because the mascot faceplanted during the halftime entertainment, than the multi-millionaire (probably billionaire) owner of some mega-corp got it
Bets amongst mates, as you say, but it makes me sound like a brit. I just don't trust whoever owns online gambling. I'd never feel safe again, knowing they have my credit card number.
Go Joe!
I don’t gamble on sports. When I want to spend crazy money, I go up to Canada and buy Cuban cigars. I give SJ credit for making this topic as entertaining as possible, but beyond that...snore. Let’s face it: the NFL is pretty non-newsworthy or interesting at this time of year.
Great stuff as usual, Joe! Easily the best $5 purchase I make each month.
Ok A 12 survey! Regular Joe, Super Joe, Cup of Joe or just Seaside Joe? May the 12s be with you and Go Seahawks!
All of the above apply but II must go reheat my cup of Joe.. Seahawks forever.