Seahawks Fan Survey: Place your bets!

Geno Smith has the same MVP odds as Russell Wilson, and other Vegas facts: Seaside Joe 1536

I am perhaps one of the lucky people who was addicted to gambling before he had any money to lose. Now at my worst, I will throw away $100 on a slot machine as my entire gambling budget for a weekend in Las Vegas but manage to completely avoid hopelessly waiting for my “Chris Moneymaker moment” at the poker tables.

I mean…”Moneymaker"? It was right there in our faces 20 years ago that we’re living in a simulation designed to drain our bank accounts!

I have placed very few sports bets in my life and ever since I convinced myself that the 49ers were going to draft Mac Jones over Trey Lance in 2021 and lost a little bit too much on that gamble, I have sworn off repeating the same mistake of having way too much faith in my football beliefs. There are far too many variables to consider, at least for a regular Joe like me!

However, I think we can still use the betting odds and gambling sites as resources for information and certain talking points, including this one that came across my desk on Tuesday:

Geno Smith is +3500 to win 2023 MVP

Russell Wilson is +3500 to win 2023 MVP

What kind of odds could you have gotten in 2022, if you were allowed to bet that Geno would have the same MVP odds as Russ in 2023?

Do they even make numbers that high?

Seaside Bonus post for Tuesday: The beginnings of Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a Texas high school football legend!

Wilson’s advantage going into next season is that he’s now being coached by a real coach and not Nathaniel Hackett. The Broncos not only traded for Sean Payton, they also invested money into their offensive line (RT Mike McGlinchey, G Ben Powers), and are hoping for healthy seasons from LT Garett Bolles (broken leg), WR Tim Patrick (ACL but should be ready in Week 1), and RB Javonte Williams (ACL but midseason return).

If Payton is as good as they say, rarely has he had a receivers room (Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Patrick, second rounder Marvin Mims, K.J. Hamler, Marquez Callaway) as good as this one for his quarterback.

Geno’s advantage is that he might have an even better wide receivers unit: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Dee Eskridge, and Dareke Young. If the Seahawks offensive line shows improvement, which I think is a fair expectation given the play of each tackle as rookies and the changes on the interior, then Seattle could have a balanced mix of high-level play from the running game (Kenneth Walker, Zach Charbonnet) and a bevy of weapons for Smith in the passing game.

In an ideal Seahawks universe, there was no bigger upgrade in the NFC this offseason than Smith-Njigba replacing Marquise Goodwin and Eskridge.

But maybe Geno’s greatest asset towards MVP votes as opposed to Russ specifically, is simply that MVP votes are tied to win totals and the Broncos making the playoffs in the AFC seems far less likely than Seattle making the playoffs in the NFC.

Or is it? That’s what we’ll address today. But first:

Wilson also has the second-best odds to win Comeback Player of the Year, only behind easy frontrunner Damar Hamlin, and that’s an award that Geno can say he already owns.

Now that I got that out of the way, you should know that Trey Lance, Jordan Love, and Jared Goff are also +3500 for MVP right now. I just wanted to sit in that room for a while when we were only looking at Geno vs Russ, but how can TREY LANCE or JORDAN LOVE be in this conversation too?

The only way to “gamble responsibly” is to save your money and play “Would you rather?” with some friends instead.

Today, we’re just surveying Seahawks fans to gauge a little bit of reactions/expectations of the 2023 season as we wait for more news and information between the end of the draft and the start of training camp. May, June, and July is the doldrums of the NFL year, but at Seaside Joe, this is where we start to shine since we take no breaks.

In order to not miss the results of these survey questions, subscribe to the newsletter if you haven’t already!

“Are you sponsored by a gambling site now or something?”

NO. NEVER. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

So where am I getting my odds? Who cares! Fuck ‘em! It’s all basically the same anyway.

Seahawks vs Rams - Week 1 opening odds

In case you have a real problem and need to place your bets in May, Seattle has opened as 5.5-point favorites against the Rams.

Who knows why you’d gamble with such a tiny amount of information at your disposal. If the Rams don’t show up in Week 1 with Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, or Cooper Kupp—which I do find feasible—this betting line could end up at -15.5 or more. And you got it for…-5.5. Only good if you’re betting on the Rams.

But then keep in mind that at the end of last season, L.A. didn’t have any of those three players and the game was decided by three points. In overtime.

There are also already point spreads posted for the rest of the season, including +2 at the Lions in Week 2, -4 against the Panthers in Week 3, and +1 at the Giants on Monday Night Football in Week 4.

Seahawks Super Bowl odds — +3000

12 teams have better Super Bowl odds than the Seahawks: Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, 49ers, Bengals, Cowboys, Jets, Ravens, Dolphins, Lions, Chargers, and Jaguars.

I was speaking to a friend recently about the competitive nature of the major American team sports, and he said that what he didn’t like about the NFL is that he feels that each season starts with only four or five true Super Bowl contenders. Certainly I think on this list many fans would say there’s a drop-off between Bengals and Cowboys.

But there’s a lot of recency bias at play there.

What did we think of the Bengals two years ago? They went 4-11-1 and then made the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, we give the Bills a lot of credit and yet they have only made it past the divisional round of the playoffs one time in the last 30 years. And we’re seeing the Eagles treated as though they’re a dynasty, but in 2021 they were 9-8 and shared plenty of similarities with the Seahawks of yesterseason.

Somewhere in that lump of teams between the Cowboys and the Seahawks, as well as a few of the teams behind Seattle such as the Vikings, Browns, and Giants, we’re going to find a franchise that reaches a conference championship, if not the next Super Bowl.

Is it really more likely that the Jets, Dolphins, Chargers, or Jaguars will emerge out of the AFC than it is that the Seahawks will win the NFC?

Is it fair to assume that the Lions, of ALL organizations, are the ones who won’t fumble their opportunity to have a breakout season? Week 2 is an extraordinary opportunity for Seattle to beat Detroit at home and set some conference boundaries—”Stay in your room, Lions. And don’t come out until I tell you it’s okay.”—or to concede that the betting markets were right.

I want to start by gauging fan anticipation for conference threats outside of the last two standing from 2022.

Then I want to poke the bear on which team fans think will be the next to emerge as a competitor to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, if it’s not Josh Allen or Joe Burrow. The Ravens extended Lamar Jackson, the Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers, while the Jaguars, Chargers, and Dolphins are hoping that their recent draftees (Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa) are up for the challenge this time.

A coupel of other notable additions this offseason include Jalen Ramsey to Miami and Calvin Ridley will make his debut for Jacksonville.

Finally, we can address the Super Bowl in the room.

Just so you know, the Seahawks are +1100 to win the NFC (fifth in the conference, same as the Super Bowl odds), and you can bet on Super Bowl matchups like Chiefs vs Seahawks (+5000), Bills vs Seahawks (+7000), Bengals vs Seahawks (+7500), and scrolling all the way down to the bottom, Texans vs Seahawks (+100000).

Division Winners

Vegas has the following teams winning their division next season: Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, and Jaguars in the AFC. Eagles, Saints, 49ers, and Lions in the NFC.

And…

Seahawks 2023 win total — 8.5

If you know in your heart of hearts that Seattle will be as good or better than they were last season, then you can make some easy money right now: The bets are placed on the Seahawks being worse than their 9-8 record from a year ago. If you think that Seattle can repeat, you can get -130 (not great) on betting the over. If you think the Seahawks will take a step back then you can get +110 (but then you’re not great, are you?) on betting the under.

For what it’s worth, I don’t think you should gamble or bet at all, but do as you please.

I just think that if you really want to test your luck and be guaranteed to come home as a big winner in life, your best bet is to subscribe to Seaside Joe, join the Regular Joes club, and tell other Seahawks fans about us. Guaranteed to put a smile on your face for life.

Remember last week when I posted that Seaside Joe was ranked 42nd overall and seventh in NFL newsletters? Well now we’re 41st and sixth! We passed Kevin Cole’s Unexpected Points and now our next milestone is the top-30 and to move past a Vikings newsletter to reach the top-five for NFL. Let’s put the fear of Blair Walsh in them.

Your best longshot to win — Tariq Woolen, DPOY

In browsing some other awards, I noticed that Tariq Woolen is +10000 to win Defensive Player of the Year, which is the same as shocking entries like Sam Hubbard, Nick Bolton, Harold Landry, Justin Simmons, and Bobby Wagner.

Bobby Wagner? He’s still in the league?!?!

There are 28 players with better odds than Woolen to win DPOY, including Chase Young, Jaelan Phillips, Travon Walker, and Jaycee Horn.

There was a time when winning DPOY as a cornerback was very unlikely, but Stephon Gilmore won in 2019 and we’ve seen others at least pick up a few votes lately like Xavien Howard and Sauce Gardner. As with picking corners in the top-5, like Gardner, Derek Stingley, and now Devon Witherspoon, the value in the position is clearly on the rise recently.

It would certainly take a historic season, like 10 interceptions or more, but now that Witherspoon is going to be soaking up some number one receiving options next to him, we might actually see Woolen finish with more picks than he had as a rookie (6), which was tied for the NFL lead. And I’d bet him over Bobby.

For other awards consideration: JSN is fifth in OROY odds, Charbonnet is 10th, Witherspoon is fourth in DROY odds, behind Will Anderson, Jalen Carter, and Tyree Wilson.

Seaside Bonus post for Tuesday: The beginnings of Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a Texas high school football legend!