Seahawks-Bucs: Of playoff matters
This won’t be a matter of counting your chicks before they hatch, it’s just a fact: The Seahawks didn’t win the division last year because they lost one too many NFC games.
We’ll never know how Seattle would have done against the Rams in Week 18 if L.A. was trying, but we know that the Rams didn’t have to try because they won a “strength of victory” tiebreaker already. If the Seahawks had just beaten the Giants in — yep — Week 5, the final chapter of the 2024 season is no less than dramatic. Instead of what it turned out to be, which was anticlimactic and pointless.
That would be like putting The Rock in a true story sports movie and … Well, I’ll spare you my review of the movie I saw last night.
We don’t know if the Seahawks will make the playoffs or if the Bucs will make the playoffs or if both will miss the playoffs, but it’s okay to say that both are in contention and could be involved in a tiebreak or a playoff game. That’s why it doesn’t matter if it’s Week 1, 5, or 18, all of these games matter but NFC GAMES matter considerably more than those against the AFC.
The Seahawks went 4-1 against the AFC and 6-6 against the NFC. They should have gone 3-2 against the AFC and 7-5 against the NFC.
Seattle got over one proverbial hump by going to Pittsburgh and beating the Steelers and that’s really super, but what they really need to do is accumulate wins over potential NFC playoff competition like the Bucs (Week 5), Moons (Week 9), Vikings (Week 13), and Falcons (Week 14), in addition to their NFC West rivals.
In the same way that the Seahawks wish they had done better against the Giants, Rams, and Vikings last season in games that had wins that slipped through their fingers.
Not only would a win on Sunday help the Seahawks, it also hurts the Bucs, a team that will drop to 1-2 in the NFC if they lose to Seattle.
Knowing that Tampa Bay still has two games left against the Panthers and two games left against the Saints, that’s potentially four more “easy” conference wins that Baker Mayfield can add to his team’s tally. If the Bucs win on Sunday, that would mean at least 7 conference wins for Tampa Bay should they sweep their own division (the Bucs beat the Falcons in Week 1). That’s a lot of NFC wins. That’s more than the Seahawks had all of last year.
So the best thing that the Seahawks can do for themselves to increase the odds of a) making the playoffs, b) having a tiebreaker advantage, and c) hosting a playoff game against the teams they beat would be, obviously, to beat them in the regular season.
This may sound obvious and it may sound premature and it is BOTH of those things.
Well, the obvious and premature games last season, the season before (Cowboys loss), and season before (Falcons, Bucs, and Panthers losses) were apparently not as obvious as we thought and you can never care too soon.
The next two games are against the Jaguars and Texans and though those contests are also very important (as all games are), Seahawks fans can breathe a much greater sigh of relief if Seattle can take a 3-1 conference record out of their Week 9 bye; continue to increase your wiggle room, hope you never have to use it(!), and don’t lose pace with four more (far more difficult than the NFC South) division rivalry games left on the schedule.
The 5 most important players in Seahawks-Bucs
I decided to pick 5 players from either team and I’m limiting the rules to only picking one quarterback because if I could pick both I would always pick both.
QB Baker Mayfield, Bucs
Mayfield vs. Seattle’s defense is more “rubber meets the road” than Sam Darnold against the Bucs defense, so that’s why I’m siding with Mayfield as the more important quarterback in this contest: He has the much harder assignment.
Since getting to the Bucs, Mayfield’s career isn’t just “as good as” a former number one pick, it’s actually much better than the norm from those quarterbacks. He is on track to make his third Pro Bowl in three seasons with Tampa (8 TD, 1 INT, 3 game-winning drives) and he’s had to do so with a more limited supporting cast than usual:
2 starting OL on IR
Mike Evans will miss his 2nd straight game
Chris Godwin returned last week (and was bad)
Rookie Emeka Egbuka has had to be a WR1 immediately
Now Bucky Irving, with 430 scrimmage yards in four games, is out for Week 5 and that puts even more pressure on Mayfield.
Similarly, there’s a lot of pressure on Seattle’s defense and Tariq Woolen/Nick Emmanwori to step up in the absences of Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love.
G Grey Zabel, Seahawks
The All-22 breakdown of Grey Zabel is like a Quentin Tarantino movie because it’s all about the feet.
Zabel’s matchup against game-wrecker Vita Vea (2 sacks last week) is the cinema you won’t want to take your eyes off of when Seattle has the ball.
WR Emeka Egbuka, Bucs
The Tacoma, Washington-born Egbuka was linked to the Seahawks before the draft and then he went directly after Zabel at pick 19. Seahawks fans love Zabel but they would love Egbuka just as much if John Schneider had decided to go in that direction. His highlights this season have been among the best in the league already.
Egbuka did need 10 targets to get just 4 catches against the Eagles last week, but he had 101 yards and a touchdown. Egbuka now has 282 yards and 4 touchdowns on the season, albeit with two drops.
“NFL wide receiver” belongs to the young people now. It’s a Gen Alpha position. Egbuka may only be a rookie but he could be one of the top-10 receivers in the league when we get to the end of the season. He’s already 13th in yards and third in touchdowns.
Is this going to be Woolen’s redemption matchup or does Macdonald need to put someone else on Egbuka to be safe? Or double Egbuka? Does Chris Godwin have his breakout game because of it?
S Nick Emmanwori, Seahawks
Yes, this is in fact the third rookie I’ve mentioned already.
Emmanwori’s next snap will only be the FIFTH of his career, but Mayfield himself shouted out the safety as a dangerous weapon for Seattle’s defense when he did his press conference earlier this week. I thought that was odd but it must be what he’s seeing on film, either college or preseason.
With Love and Witherspoon both out, Emmanwori’s role on defense becomes more important and he’s also likely to be one of the most unpredictable players in the game. Macdonald hasn’t totally revealed the plans yet, which is a silver lining to playing three games without Emmanwori (3-0 by the way).
The Bucs have scored 20+ in every game.
The Seahawks haven’t allowed more than 20 in any game.
Which side gives? I’m thinking that Seattle’s defense is as motivated as any unit in the league to prove itself as “elite”. Maybe jitterbugs and nerves and the anxiety of waiting an additional month will have Emmanwori playing a little bit overzealous to start the game, but he could be the guy who blows up one play to completely turn the game around.
RB Kenneth Walker, Seahawks
It seems like the Bucs always have a great run defense and that’s still true (2nd in yards per carry allowed) but one area that they’ve allowed yards is running backs as receivers.
Bijan Robinson, 100 receiving yards
Saquon Barkley, 31 receiving yards
Nick Chubb, 29 receiving yards
So a lot of that is basically one play by Robinson, if we’re being honest, but the majority of these running backs’ good plays were through the air.
Can Walker, notably not a very productive receiver, still prove valuable if Seattle struggles to run the football (again)? That makes Walker and how he’s utilized on Sunday and what he does with his targets all the more important. Walker has two career receiving touchdowns.
Will he get his third? That could be the difference.
Who are your top-5?
Seaside Joe 2406
We have different views on The Smashing Machine - but similar views on they key areas for the game.
I'd swap out NickE for like Charlie Heck or Elijah Klein. Can the Buccs O-Line hold up against our Rush Rotation? Mayfield is good and will play good, but that O-Line has weaknesses and our Pass Rush could do with a second prove-it game to show they are capable of wrecking a game themselves. Taking down Murray a lot isn't crazy hard, putting Baker on his butt 3+ times would be a statement of intent to the league.
I’ve watch some all-22 analysis on the Bucs, and it seems they’re quite poor defending against passes in the middle of the field between the numbers. Darnold is killing it using the middle of the field with an adjusted completion rate of 90%. I’m not sure what adjusted completion rate is, but 90% does sound outstanding. The Bucs linebackers have been struggling as pass defenders. I’d really like to see what Barner and Arroyo can do attacking the middle of the field, beating the linebackers. I know I’ve called for a TE breakout game already, but quick passes to the TEs will stifle to TB pass rush. I want to see Horton beat one of the TB outside corners for a big TD catch. How about K9 gets 2 or 3 explosive runs.
On defense, I want to see our D-line attack the whole right side of the TB O-line which is missing both starters. How about another 6 sack game with both Williams and Murphy getting sacks, Chenna, Hall, Mafe AND Emmanwori! We get 2 INTs, I’m thinking E Jones get another, and can Woolen get some redemption with an INT?
Go Hawks! No score prediction, but the Offense scores over 30 and the defense holds TB to 17 or fewer points. The 12s hit 110db regularly and 4 false starts plus a delay of game on TB.