Will Seahawks ever get comp picks again? 2025 comp pick projection

2024 compensatory picks announced and Seahawks left empty again: Seaside Joe 1832

The NFL’s compensatory draft picks system is easy to understand, but Seahawks fans should be forgiven for being out of the loop because Seattle has not received any of them for years. That continued on Friday as the NFL awarded 34 comp picks in the 2024 NFL Draft (including 5 to the 49ers and 4 to the Rams) and for the sixth time in the last seven years, none for the Seahawks. Why not?

Because the Seahawks haven’t done a good enough job recently of acquiring and developing talent at the player, coach, and front office level; because of the league’s minority hiring incentives program, the Rams received pick 3.98 (and another third rounder next year) because the Falcons hired Raheem Morris to be their head coach and the 49ers received 3.99 because the Titans hired Ron Carthon as their GM/the Texans hired DeMeco Ryans in 2023.

(For what it’s worth, which isn’t much, longtime former Seahawks assistant Dave Canales would have qualified for the minority hiring program but Pete Carroll never gave him a promotion to OC. He left in 2023 and spent one season with the Bucs as OC then was hired as the Panthers head coach in January; Tampa Bay will not receive comp picks because the candidate has to be with the team for at least two years.)

Compensatory picks are no joke: The L.A. Rams drafted wide receiver Puka Nacua with the last pick of the fifth round because they lost a defensive tackle named Sebastian Joseph-Day in free agency the year before and then Nacua set the NFL’s rookie record for catches and yards.

The 49ers had three third round comp picks in 2023 and right now those players are safety Ji’Ayir Brown, kicker Jake Moody, and tight end Cameron Latu. Between the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals, that made for 11 compensatory picks going to the NFC West and none to the Seahawks, as they couldn’t receive any for the losses of D.J. Reed and Gerald Everett because the team signed Uchenna Nwosu and Austin Blythe.

Then last year, the team only lost one free agent who could qualify for a comp pick—Cody Barton, which projected Seattle for a sixth—but the Seahawks signed Dre’Mont Jones, Julian Love, Jarran Reed, Devin Bush, and Evan Brown to offset any potential compensation. On one hand, the Seahawks have Jones, Love, and Reed signed for at least one more season. On the other, Seattle didn’t do enough to have more attractive free agents on the market than Barton.

The case should be different in 2024-2025, but only depending on how the Seahawks approach free agency: They have really good players hitting the market, but will they re-sign any of them and will they off-set any losses by signing comparable free agents?

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The Seahawks COULD be in line for 2025 comp picks

What you will notice in the announcement of comp picks is that there were only two third rounders for free agent losses and only three fourth rounders, so the majority of these picks are in the fifth, sixth, and seventh. The two biggest non-offsetting losses were the Jaguars getting a third rounder for the loss of right tackle Ja’Waan Taylor (Chiefs), and the Eagles getting a third for the loss of defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (49ers). The 49ers still got a fourth rounder for the loss of QB Jimmy Garoppolo.

Yes, the 49ers get a FOURTH for losing a player who they didn’t want and who will certainly be released this month by the Raiders.

The Seahawks 2023 free agents were, as noted, not that appealing: Barton, Travis Homer, Rashaad Penny, Johnathan Abram, and Marquise Goodwin.

By comparison, Seattle’s list opf 2024 free agents (and released players do NOT count, so no Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Will Dissly, or Bryan Mone) could have at least four players who qualify for the compensatory formula if they leave in free agency. What matters here is Annual Average Value (your average salary), not guarantees or signing bonuses or anything like that: If Kirk Cousins signs a one-year, $45 million contract, then he’s got an AAV of $45 million, which will far surpass any other free agent.

DL Leonard Williams

Contract Projection AAV: $17-$19 Million

Last year, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds signed a three-year, $72 million contract with the Bears ($18m AAV) that sent back a fourth round pick to the Bills. If Williams signs a comparable contract in free agency, we could assume that Seattle gets between a 4th and 5th round 2025 comp pick in return if they do not sign a comparable free agent.

I did mention in my article on Thursday that there are one or two names that I could see the Seahawks being interested in at that level, especially if they do not re-sign Williams.

John Schneider mentioned on Thursday that the team is working to bring back Williams. If a team re-signs their own free agent player, this does NOT factor into the comp pick formula; it only matters if the team signs an outside free agent. As far as whether I expect the Seahawks to re-sign Williams and Schneider’s comments, I’m sure that the team would like him to return. The question is whether they’re offering him enough money to keep him from testing the market.

Spending $20 million-ish per year on a 30-year-old defensive lineman who doesn’t get to the quarterback when there will be younger, cheaper options on the market, I’m not sure if that’s the plan or not. I would assume that Mike Macdonald has final say as to whether or not he expects Williams to be the type of player he values and thinks is difficult to replace, but the Ravens got by with far cheaper options en route to having the number one defense in 2023.

LB Jordyn Brooks

Contract Projection AAV: $10-$12 Million

For some reason, the Titans gave free agent offensive tackle Andre Dillard a deal paying him $9.6 million AAV in 2023 and that returned a fifth rounder to the Eagles. The Broncos paid guard Ben Powers a $13 million salary and that sent a fourth rounder to the Ravens. So if Brooks leaves Seattle at the projected signing level then the expected return would be a 4th-5th round compensatory pick.

I’m not as sold as others that Brooks has a clear value in the $10-$15 million AAV range. The Chiefs re-signed linebacker Drue Tranquill this week to a deal that pays $6 million AAV. Tranquill isn’t a great linebacker, but is he half as good as Brooks? I’m not sure about that. There were people in Seattle who expected Barton to be paid a lot and that he was “an incalcuable loss” to the Seahawks defense, but he signed for only $3.5 million.

In any case, I expect Brooks to sign a deal that would result in a 2025 compensatory pick between the fourth and sixth rounds if not off-set.

TE Noah Fant

Contract Projection AAV: $9-$12 Million

I’ll be stunned if Fant doesn’t get at least $9 million as tight ends always get more than you think they will. The position is probably the second-hardest in the NFL to master behind only quarterback and it seems like teams loathe the development process in coaching a player to both block and run routes/receive. I’m not so sure that Fant will ever be great at the blocking part but he’s certainly good enough and I’ve been saying that I expect him to leave Seattle for an offense that will feed him the football more often.

Unless Ryan Grubb and Macdonald have promised him an upgraded role on the Seahawks, I feel like he will want to take an offer elsewhere to increase his value similar to Evan Engram signing a one-year, $9 million deal with the Jaguars two offseasons ago.

We just saw the Texans re-sign tight end Dalton Schultz to a three-year, $36 million contract and Schultz did the same thing as Engram: He signed a one-year, $6.25m deal with Houston in 2023 and proved his value on an upgrade contract in 2024. Schultz didn’t set the world on fire to get $12 million per year, he only had 635 yards and five touchdowns, but that’s enough at that position.

Fant is capable of stats like that, if not better, so I expect him to test the market and leave in free agency.

G Damien Lewis

Contract Projection AAV: $9-$13 Million

The Rams re-signed guard Kevin Dotson on Thursday to a deal paying him $16 million per season. Less than a year ago, Dotson was traded to L.A. for a day three pick swap after he had lost a starting job on the Pittsburgh Steelers, so that’s how quickly fortunes can change in this league.

By all accounts, Dotson is better and more valuable than Lewis, but the 27-year-old Seattle guard still has 61 career starts since being a third round pick in 2020. He’s a definite starter on any offensive line that needs a guard and so it would be a stunner if he got less than $8 million and he could get as much as $13 million. The Jaguars re-signed guard Ezra Cleveland, a player I mentioned as a potential Lewis replacement in this article last month, to a deal paying him $8 million per year.

Lewis is better than Cleveland and “worse” than Dotson, so his agent should have a clear goal of reaching the $13 million AAV that the Broncos gave to Powers in 2023. I had the Seahawks re-signing Lewis in my offseason plan and the pre-free agency signings of Dotson and Cleveland emphasize that there won’t be many obvious replacements available, but I have my doubts about this team paying an above-average guard that much money per year right now.

I’d call it fine if they do, fine if they don’t. Losing Lewis and not paying a comparable free agent should net a 4th-6th round comp pick in 2025.

QB Drew Lock

Contract Projection AAV: $4-$6 Million

Lock got a one-year, $4 million deal to stay in Seattle last offseason and that number alone would put him in the seventh round comp range. But he did play a little bit in 2023 and helped the Seahawks beat the Eagles so it is possible he raised his value slightly albeit not on the level of expecting any team to sign him as a starter. I wrote about Lock’s free agency here and why he’s not going to get a chance to start in 2024 unless it is with Seattle.

The Rams lost Baker Mayfield in free agency last year and that rental netted them a sixth round compensatory pick when he signed for $6.85m with the Bucs. If the Bucs lose Mayfield in free agency next week, he’ll probably sign for at least $30 million AAV. Some contract projections are north of $40 million, but I’d keep in mind that Geno Smith eventually settled for $25 million AAV and I don’t think Mayfield is any more proven now than Geno was a year ago. That being said, you’re worth whatever a team is willing to pay you and the Bucs could overspend.

If the Seahawks tell Lock that he’s going to backup Geno again, or especially that they’re willing to make a change at starter and put Geno on the trade block (I’m not sure if they’d tell Lock that directly or not), where else is a better chance for him to start than Seattle? Nowhere.

That being said, Lock could end up leaving and getting $5 million AAV, which nets the Seahawks a 6th-7th round comp pick in 2025 if not offset.

TE Colby Parkinson

Contract Projection AAV: $5-$8 Million

As I said, expect more than you think with tight ends. If the Seahawks part ways with Fant, it increases their likelihood of re-signing Parkinson, which is what I expect them to do. If Parkinson tests the market, he could easily get three or four teams to compete for his services and pay him a figure in this range. I’m looking at the Josh Oliver, Tyler Conklin, Gereald Everett, Mo Alie-Cox range of deals and seeing $5-$7 million, at least.

Parkinson should factor in the 6th round comp range if he leaves.

Remaining Free Agents

LB Bobby Wagner, iOL Evan Brown, DE Mario Edwards, LB Devin Bush, RT Jason Peters, G Phil Haynes, RB DeeJay Dallas, CB Artie Burns, CB Mike Jackson (RFA), OLB Darrell Taylor (RFA)

It wouldn’t be hard to see Wagner signing a one-year, $6 million type deal with a team in free agency, so that nets a day three comp pick. I’d say that Evan Brown and DeeJay Dallas are right on the border of the seventh round compensatory picks. Haynes, it depends if any team thinks he can play a full season without any issues, which is unlikely. We’ll see if Jackson and Taylor get their restricted free agent tenders.

Seahawks projected 2025 compensatory picks

My Projection: Seahawks get at least one comp pick!

Schneider said something else interesting on Thursday, which is that they felt they had to release those players because of “what free agency looks like”, which signals to me that the Seahawks plan to be active next week. Not just with their own players but with outside options, which is what you’d expect when you change over the entire coaching staff save one person. I wrote about connecting new coaches to their old players here.

So let’s say that the Seahawks clean house with outgoing free agents: Williams, Brooks, Fant, Lewis, Lock, Parkinson, Bobby, Brown, and Dallas, for example. I bet you that those nine players could return four compensatory picks (that’s the max allowed for players lost in free agency) including a fourth for Williams, fifths for Brooks and Fant, and a sixth for the rest.

My compensatory pick projections would be: 2025 4th, 5th, 5th, and 6th

Okay? But let’s say that the Seahawks sign a one free agent to offset Williams, one free agent to offset Fant, and two free agents to offset Bobby and Lock. Then maybe what they’re left with is comp picks for Brooks (5th), Parkinson (6th), Brown (7th), and Dallas (7th). I could still see them getting four picks, just later ones.

Of course, I really expect them to re-sign a couple of these players, like Lock, Parkinson, Brown, for example. And maybe Williams or Brooks could come back. It all depends but because the Seahawks have such a better free agent class in 2024 and aren’t expected to re-sign all of them, if not let most of them leave, then I am looking for at least one and as many as four comp picks in 2025.

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