Sometimes in the NFL draft, when you are picked truly ain’t nothin’ but a number.
Drafting Grey Zabel at 18th overall on Thursday is great news for Seattle’s offensive line, for players like Sam Darnold and Kenneth Walker, and for Seahawks offensive line coach John Benton because he’s the most talented guard or center prospect that the franchise has added in a very long time.
But taking a guard in the top-20 means that John Schneider is not so happy with the three guards that he’s drafted in the previous two years (four if you include Michael Jerrell), nor is it a glowing endorsement of the top prospects in the class. We already had good evidence that the 2025 class is lacking in blue chip talent at premium positions, namely:
QB (One in the top 24)
OT (Three in the top 28 but they could all move to guard)
EDGE (Four in the top 25 and at least two of them were a reach)
WR (Only one went ahead of the Seahawks pick)
Go down a road with me for a second:
If we pretend as though the 2025 NFL Draft had 15 fewer first round prospects than a really good first round, then in a way we could add +15 to where the Seahawks picked him at 18 and the end result would be Pick 33.
An early second round pick.
The Seahawks would have gladly traded back and taken Zabel later, and Schneider said that the team tried to do that:
This class has also been referred to as the “screw it draft” because teams were likely to pick prospects earlier than their typical value due to a lack of interest in trading up and GMs sacrificing that perceived value by saying “Screw it!” and taking that player wherever he may have to go.
We saw this happen when the Broncos took Bo Nix at 12th overall in the 2024 draft. That was much earlier than Nix’s perceived value, but if Denver could not find a partner to trade back with that would make them comfortable of still landing Nix, then that’s what they had to do.
Grey Zabel’s typical draft value is significantly lower than pick 18 with examples such as:
Quinn Meinerz going 98th overall in 2021
Former teammate Cody Mauch going 48th overall in 2023
Jackson Powers-Johnson going 44th overall in 2024
It seemed like teams were paying a PREMIUM PRICE for players throughout day one, and not just the Jaguars giving up the farm to guarantee that they left the 2025 draft with Travis Hunter. The Patriots picked Will Campbell at four, which would make him one of the highest draft guards in history if he’s moved there (or a reach at tackle, according to most experts); Tetairoa McMillan may have been worth a top-10 pick, but experts were split on whether he even deserved a first round grade; Colston Love (10) and Tyler Warren (14) are two of the highest-drafted tight ends of the century; like Zabel, Tyler Booker (12) is also one of the highest-drafted guards of the era.
Drafting Zabel “too early” doesn’t change the fact that Seattle really needed a player like him at guard and that he immediately injects talent and hope into a position that desperately needed both.
Whether the Seahawks drafted Zabel at 18 or 33 or 50 or 82, he would be the same prospect, and many of the best guards/centers in the NFL were taken on day two. Probably most of the best ones were taken on day two. Now the Seahawks have one of those, just taken on day one.
Where Zabel Plays in 2025
The Seahawks will have a competition at center between Olu Oluwatimi and Jalen Sundell, unless they draft another one on Friday, as Schneider has been saying they would since last month. Zabel figures to play guard in 2025, but Seattle will determine whether that’s on the left side or the right after they settle on a roster and go through offseason workouts.
Should Christian Haynes, Anthony Bradford, Sataoa Laumea or someone else step up with Benton’s coaching, the Seahawks do figure to have a much improved offensive line next season. To imagine that Zabel would be worse than Laken Tomlinson is the stuff of nightmares.
Day 2: Picks, Needs, BPA, Seahawks mock
Here are the best available players on day two and how the Seahawks might use their four picks with a mock for their four picks: