One thing. I think that Hawks havent stayed where they were (maybe they ended there with three picks). But If i remember it, they traded down in 4th round and then Up for Stone Forsythe...
Some intriguing options. I'd be happy if we landed Carter because his talent is so unusual. Speed, strength, power, quickness, great feet, ability to get off blockers or run right through them. Yes, I know the risks. But how often does a guy like that come along? I'd be very happy with Kancey but thrilled if we landed Nolan Smith at 20. Kancey's undersized for DT but would really help with our run defense because he's really fasts and athletic. I don't see him at a top 10 guy but good value at 20. I just love Smith. He's great against the run and has potential to improve and be great rushing the passer. He's not huge or freakishly athletic (though decent in both categories), but his heart makes him special. He's the kind of guy who will never take a play off. Like you were saying about Witherspoon (and Anderson a while back). This is why I've been saying I'd love to land Carter and Smith. The fact that they were teammates means some of their ability to communicate could carry over, though that's less important than what they bring and who they are. One may be the freakiest athletic mutant in the class (with such a unique mix of skills) while the other is super high energy and character.
Having said all that, if we had the first pick in the draft, I'd want to take Young. I get the risk with him too but, man, I've never seen a college level guy who can process so quickly and play so smartly. I love his arm too. Not a howitzer but plenty strong with incredible touch and placement. I see him as truly special. If he were in the same class with Lawrence, it would be a really hard choice. But Lawrence was regarded at the time as the kind of guy who comes along rarely. More stature for sure. But Young just seems so special. Reminds me of how special Montana was in his prime.
Thanks for the great write up. #3 is oddly my favorite but its because of Mazi and our glaring hole at NT. Lots of great options. How about a double down draft? NTs Mazi and Sia in 2nd round. Edges Anderson and Van Ness/murphy/smith in first round. Then go Wypler, Dell, McBride, V Miller , Ford-Wheaton and Rodriguez JR and call it good this year. 2 NT, 2 edges, 2 WR, 2 RB, C and a LB? Hit the holes and piss off the analysts. Worked well last year. Really hoping Tre Brown comes back strong and takes the left CB spot.
I have a question that I cannot quite figure out how to ask. The repeated mention of Mr. Adams on PUP next year, following much discussion about Mr. Richardson's relative lack of experience, has brought it top of mind. If it's too out of line, use some of that Moderator Pixie Dust & make it go away. I will understand!
When the Brain Trust traded away a trove of picks for Mr. Adams in July of 2020, my first thought was "this pandemic pandemonium is just getting started...some (maybe all) of those picks might not be worth as much over the next couple of years as they normally would be". Setting aside the injury issue (which could not have been prognosticated), I still wonder about that sometimes.
My thought was that fewer college games were likely to be played over the following season or two (for all anybody knew at the time) resulting in poorer-quality data. Now, I see a similar issue raised with respect to potential low-round selection of Mr. Richardson (paucity of observed data on which to base a reliable estimate) so it seems to me that there might be something to the notion.
Given that every draft pick is a roll of the dice based on estimates before the fact ("a priori"), and everybody's opinion can factor in the known subsequent injuries ("a posteriori"), is there a way to estimate the quality of that original decision? Say, by comparing the "hit rate" of picks for those two draft years to the preceding years. I have no idea how that would get measured.
Maybe it is too soon to ask questions like that. Maybe it won't be time to do it until all of those two years' worth of picks are out of the game. As noted above, I need some help figuring out how to ask the question.
Aside: for the Latin-challenged, "a posteriori" crudely translates to "searching for something up your own a**". "A priori" translates (with equal crudidity) as "that hasn't had a chance to get up anybody's a** yet".
(Did I need to use assterisks? Having no way to assay the issue, I had to assume. Are there rules here? I have no idea if there are rules. There are always rules, and I am always in trouble!)
Thanks in advance for y'all's very kind consideration.
I would like Anderson, Van Ness and Mazi Smith with someone like Bergeron/Avila/Mauch with our late R2 pick, please and thank you.
I'm more on board with Witherspoon than I would have been last week; I do think he can bring value covering guys like Deebo, CMC and Kupp out the slot as well as growing into an outside corner and even taking some reps at free safety thanks to his speed, play recognition and tackling. When you look at it through the prism of "which PERSON would you like to give a $34m contract to?", Witherspoon is definitely on that list.
On Simms' position on the Edges, I made an exception and actually watched the video and I came away deeply unimpressed. I'm 100% sure this is because I'm a massive Will Anderson fan. Nonetheless, the leeway and optimistic projections he gave prospects like Tyree Wilson and Will MacDonald should have been afforded to Anderson too. I found him too willing to overlook weaknesses that were evident on tape(measure) in favour of best-case-scenario upside. Rant over.
Thanks for the writeups, I found it a helpful exercise in terms of projecting depth charts and highlighting just how thin we are across the front 7.
Since discovering Witherspoon as a potential target for the draft, I have spent time looking at the Safety group for other possible targets later in the draft. I didn't find much after the top round guys with traits, and I was just about to give up when I found a guy who I honestly cannot understand why he is buried as the forty something best safety in the class. What?
I'm not saying he will be a target, but this is the kind of guy who when the Seahawks draft him, everyone says, "where did they find him".
His highlight reel is short and mostly covers his interceptions since he was a freshman. He's not a Witherspoon type of tackler, but he's not shy, either. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0XFilaUL0U
Would love to see others here suggest players who we all might have overlooked.
Luckily it's not just the draft left to add players! There's always the Undrafted, and usually some of those guys make the fringes of the 53 to add depth. Plus there are still FA's to sign and trades to make, there's quite a lot of solid FA's out there in fact we could make good use of.
Draft for BPA and talent, not for "need" or "depth". I'd say only 8 or 9 positions are really locked in at the moment, and only one (WR1) can survive an injury without a sizable drop off in quality. A good coach and coordinators will get the best talent on the field and firing, they just need the players to do it. We're not going to win the superbowl this year, but another high talent draft will put us in range of winning in 2024.
Very helpful, realistic scenarios for the top of the draft. What’s your thoughts on middle round guys like WR Charlie Jones? His balance and body control on tape reminds me of Cooper Kupp at EWU.
Does anybody know what the status is of Tyreke Smith? Will he be available for OTA's and ready for camp this year? We can't forget about him.
I think I like Heavy (1.0) the best, actually. Carter (from what I have seen) is the most likely to be dominant in the NFL and that is exactly what the Seahawks need. But let's not forget about Tyreke!
Apr 12, 2023·edited Apr 12, 2023Liked by Seaside Joe
Closing the Gap on the Niner's - this year.
Typically, draft picks do not produce much until their second year. Our Seahawks will get a Lot out of one year of seasoning and a second training camp for their already proven picks from last year as well as the opportunity to see how much growth we can get out of those who have yet to show their stuff.
As fun as it is to imagine how much the home team can get out of its new picks for 2023, lets play with last year's draft for a spell:
1) Charles Cross - will he get better? Absolutely. How much? Perhaps he is on the road to dominate. I expect him to be consistently reliable with further developing upside.
2a) Boye Mafe - improvement from a rotational player in 2022? Yes. In year two, his game will move up. Still a rotational pass rusher with genuine edge-setting skills against the run. Watch out for his year-three growth.
2b) Kenneth Walker III - unleashed lightning? Unless the dude gets hurt, I expect 1800 yards from scrimmage. This one is legit. Book'em Dan-O.
3) Abraham Lucas - is he topped out as a reliable RT? Heck no. Honest, Abe is on the road to a long/strong career w/ plenty of pancakes in his 2023 season. I expect him to serve up lots of them in his time with his hometown team. Great 3rd-rounder for sho.
4) Coby Bryant - here is a player who un-expectantly took over where veterans where not delivering. Highlighted by his tackling (causing 4 fumbles), his place in the passing game will indeed improve beyond being a nice surprise. Athletically, expecting more than a steady performer from his future is unlikely but even that is a wow for the 4th-round.
5a) Tariq Woolen - Hot dang! This dude was the Top draft value in the whole league last year. His passion for improvement in last season's training camp was legendary. Expecting the same passion seems like asking too much but really, does anyone think that his drive to improve will fade out? Doubtful. I expect him to be that much More legit in 2023 and beyond. He will Not be thrown at very often - a la Sherm's experience.
5b) Tyreke Smith - No show due to injury. He will have last year's familiarity with the setting, etc. to make his training camp this year to 'slow down' some. I suspect he will become a rotational pass rusher in his career. Something like a Quinton Jefferson.
6) Bo Melton - Gone.
7) Dereke Young - Here is our upcoming 'bag-o-tricks' guy. After his second training camp, it will not surprise many if he lands A- 4th WR, B- Blocking/receiving FB or C- the combination of A and B. With his Batman utility belt consisting of hands/size/passion for blocking/running ability, and speed, I expect by the end of this year and into his third season, we will be talking about him being a serious draft steal.
2023's draft will be worthy of all this scintillating discussion and yet, even if PC/JS pull off a dud, last years crop will provide the typical second year growth jump. That augmentation of known production is equally cool. Right?
Personally I like Tyree Wilson and Lucas Van Ness with the picks at 5 and 20.. tho I think van Ness may be gone by 20
And....who plays NT if there is not Mazi Smith?
One thing. I think that Hawks havent stayed where they were (maybe they ended there with three picks). But If i remember it, they traded down in 4th round and then Up for Stone Forsythe...
Some intriguing options. I'd be happy if we landed Carter because his talent is so unusual. Speed, strength, power, quickness, great feet, ability to get off blockers or run right through them. Yes, I know the risks. But how often does a guy like that come along? I'd be very happy with Kancey but thrilled if we landed Nolan Smith at 20. Kancey's undersized for DT but would really help with our run defense because he's really fasts and athletic. I don't see him at a top 10 guy but good value at 20. I just love Smith. He's great against the run and has potential to improve and be great rushing the passer. He's not huge or freakishly athletic (though decent in both categories), but his heart makes him special. He's the kind of guy who will never take a play off. Like you were saying about Witherspoon (and Anderson a while back). This is why I've been saying I'd love to land Carter and Smith. The fact that they were teammates means some of their ability to communicate could carry over, though that's less important than what they bring and who they are. One may be the freakiest athletic mutant in the class (with such a unique mix of skills) while the other is super high energy and character.
Having said all that, if we had the first pick in the draft, I'd want to take Young. I get the risk with him too but, man, I've never seen a college level guy who can process so quickly and play so smartly. I love his arm too. Not a howitzer but plenty strong with incredible touch and placement. I see him as truly special. If he were in the same class with Lawrence, it would be a really hard choice. But Lawrence was regarded at the time as the kind of guy who comes along rarely. More stature for sure. But Young just seems so special. Reminds me of how special Montana was in his prime.
Thanks for the great write up. #3 is oddly my favorite but its because of Mazi and our glaring hole at NT. Lots of great options. How about a double down draft? NTs Mazi and Sia in 2nd round. Edges Anderson and Van Ness/murphy/smith in first round. Then go Wypler, Dell, McBride, V Miller , Ford-Wheaton and Rodriguez JR and call it good this year. 2 NT, 2 edges, 2 WR, 2 RB, C and a LB? Hit the holes and piss off the analysts. Worked well last year. Really hoping Tre Brown comes back strong and takes the left CB spot.
I have a question that I cannot quite figure out how to ask. The repeated mention of Mr. Adams on PUP next year, following much discussion about Mr. Richardson's relative lack of experience, has brought it top of mind. If it's too out of line, use some of that Moderator Pixie Dust & make it go away. I will understand!
When the Brain Trust traded away a trove of picks for Mr. Adams in July of 2020, my first thought was "this pandemic pandemonium is just getting started...some (maybe all) of those picks might not be worth as much over the next couple of years as they normally would be". Setting aside the injury issue (which could not have been prognosticated), I still wonder about that sometimes.
My thought was that fewer college games were likely to be played over the following season or two (for all anybody knew at the time) resulting in poorer-quality data. Now, I see a similar issue raised with respect to potential low-round selection of Mr. Richardson (paucity of observed data on which to base a reliable estimate) so it seems to me that there might be something to the notion.
Given that every draft pick is a roll of the dice based on estimates before the fact ("a priori"), and everybody's opinion can factor in the known subsequent injuries ("a posteriori"), is there a way to estimate the quality of that original decision? Say, by comparing the "hit rate" of picks for those two draft years to the preceding years. I have no idea how that would get measured.
Maybe it is too soon to ask questions like that. Maybe it won't be time to do it until all of those two years' worth of picks are out of the game. As noted above, I need some help figuring out how to ask the question.
Aside: for the Latin-challenged, "a posteriori" crudely translates to "searching for something up your own a**". "A priori" translates (with equal crudidity) as "that hasn't had a chance to get up anybody's a** yet".
(Did I need to use assterisks? Having no way to assay the issue, I had to assume. Are there rules here? I have no idea if there are rules. There are always rules, and I am always in trouble!)
Thanks in advance for y'all's very kind consideration.
I do like Mazi Smith, but under these listings I would go with D-Heavy or D-Heavy 4.
Jammie Robinson gives a good interview!
I like the sound of your 3.0 scenario; I'm just not sure Nolan Smith will be there at #20.
I would like Anderson, Van Ness and Mazi Smith with someone like Bergeron/Avila/Mauch with our late R2 pick, please and thank you.
I'm more on board with Witherspoon than I would have been last week; I do think he can bring value covering guys like Deebo, CMC and Kupp out the slot as well as growing into an outside corner and even taking some reps at free safety thanks to his speed, play recognition and tackling. When you look at it through the prism of "which PERSON would you like to give a $34m contract to?", Witherspoon is definitely on that list.
On Simms' position on the Edges, I made an exception and actually watched the video and I came away deeply unimpressed. I'm 100% sure this is because I'm a massive Will Anderson fan. Nonetheless, the leeway and optimistic projections he gave prospects like Tyree Wilson and Will MacDonald should have been afforded to Anderson too. I found him too willing to overlook weaknesses that were evident on tape(measure) in favour of best-case-scenario upside. Rant over.
Thanks for the writeups, I found it a helpful exercise in terms of projecting depth charts and highlighting just how thin we are across the front 7.
Since discovering Witherspoon as a potential target for the draft, I have spent time looking at the Safety group for other possible targets later in the draft. I didn't find much after the top round guys with traits, and I was just about to give up when I found a guy who I honestly cannot understand why he is buried as the forty something best safety in the class. What?
I'm not saying he will be a target, but this is the kind of guy who when the Seahawks draft him, everyone says, "where did they find him".
Cory Trice, Purdue, CB/S,
HEIGHT: 6-3 (91%*) WEIGHT: 206 (48%*)
HANDS: 9 3/4 (70%*) ARM: 32 3/8 (68%*) SPAN: 77 (67%*)
FORTY: 4.47 (C) (82%*) SHUTTLE: 4.06 (P) (85%*) TEN YARD: 1.56 (C) (61%*)
VERTICAL: 35.5 (C) (49%*) BROAD: 132 (C) (97%*)
THREE CONE: 6.70 (P) (91%*) BENCH: 17 (C) (51%*)
His highlight reel is short and mostly covers his interceptions since he was a freshman. He's not a Witherspoon type of tackler, but he's not shy, either. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0XFilaUL0U
Would love to see others here suggest players who we all might have overlooked.
Luckily it's not just the draft left to add players! There's always the Undrafted, and usually some of those guys make the fringes of the 53 to add depth. Plus there are still FA's to sign and trades to make, there's quite a lot of solid FA's out there in fact we could make good use of.
Draft for BPA and talent, not for "need" or "depth". I'd say only 8 or 9 positions are really locked in at the moment, and only one (WR1) can survive an injury without a sizable drop off in quality. A good coach and coordinators will get the best talent on the field and firing, they just need the players to do it. We're not going to win the superbowl this year, but another high talent draft will put us in range of winning in 2024.
Very helpful, realistic scenarios for the top of the draft. What’s your thoughts on middle round guys like WR Charlie Jones? His balance and body control on tape reminds me of Cooper Kupp at EWU.
Does anybody know what the status is of Tyreke Smith? Will he be available for OTA's and ready for camp this year? We can't forget about him.
I think I like Heavy (1.0) the best, actually. Carter (from what I have seen) is the most likely to be dominant in the NFL and that is exactly what the Seahawks need. But let's not forget about Tyreke!
https://www.nfl.com/videos/seahawks-select-tyreke-smith-with-no-158-pick-in-2022-draft
Closing the Gap on the Niner's - this year.
Typically, draft picks do not produce much until their second year. Our Seahawks will get a Lot out of one year of seasoning and a second training camp for their already proven picks from last year as well as the opportunity to see how much growth we can get out of those who have yet to show their stuff.
As fun as it is to imagine how much the home team can get out of its new picks for 2023, lets play with last year's draft for a spell:
1) Charles Cross - will he get better? Absolutely. How much? Perhaps he is on the road to dominate. I expect him to be consistently reliable with further developing upside.
2a) Boye Mafe - improvement from a rotational player in 2022? Yes. In year two, his game will move up. Still a rotational pass rusher with genuine edge-setting skills against the run. Watch out for his year-three growth.
2b) Kenneth Walker III - unleashed lightning? Unless the dude gets hurt, I expect 1800 yards from scrimmage. This one is legit. Book'em Dan-O.
3) Abraham Lucas - is he topped out as a reliable RT? Heck no. Honest, Abe is on the road to a long/strong career w/ plenty of pancakes in his 2023 season. I expect him to serve up lots of them in his time with his hometown team. Great 3rd-rounder for sho.
4) Coby Bryant - here is a player who un-expectantly took over where veterans where not delivering. Highlighted by his tackling (causing 4 fumbles), his place in the passing game will indeed improve beyond being a nice surprise. Athletically, expecting more than a steady performer from his future is unlikely but even that is a wow for the 4th-round.
5a) Tariq Woolen - Hot dang! This dude was the Top draft value in the whole league last year. His passion for improvement in last season's training camp was legendary. Expecting the same passion seems like asking too much but really, does anyone think that his drive to improve will fade out? Doubtful. I expect him to be that much More legit in 2023 and beyond. He will Not be thrown at very often - a la Sherm's experience.
5b) Tyreke Smith - No show due to injury. He will have last year's familiarity with the setting, etc. to make his training camp this year to 'slow down' some. I suspect he will become a rotational pass rusher in his career. Something like a Quinton Jefferson.
6) Bo Melton - Gone.
7) Dereke Young - Here is our upcoming 'bag-o-tricks' guy. After his second training camp, it will not surprise many if he lands A- 4th WR, B- Blocking/receiving FB or C- the combination of A and B. With his Batman utility belt consisting of hands/size/passion for blocking/running ability, and speed, I expect by the end of this year and into his third season, we will be talking about him being a serious draft steal.
2023's draft will be worthy of all this scintillating discussion and yet, even if PC/JS pull off a dud, last years crop will provide the typical second year growth jump. That augmentation of known production is equally cool. Right?