Return of the back

Drafting Kenneth Walker could be John Schneider's best move: Seaside Joe 2060

It showed foresight. It showed his loyalty to a belief. It was the exact opposite move that the Internet was begging him to do with Seattle’s third pick in the 2022 draft. Selecting Kenneth Walker III was John Schneider’s gutsiest decision in recent years, and that’s true whether you hated the pick or loved it.

Walker was praised as the star of training camp and through his first 5 games, the Seahawks have only given us a preview of how much they actually intend to build their offense around him. Head coach Mike Macdonald told reporters as much, “He’s a difference-maker for us and we want to get the ball in his hands as much as possible — in the pass game and the run game. When he’s out there, it makes a difference.”

He’ll get more touches and I would be shocked if Walker doesn’t finish with at least 1,200 rushing yards, over 400 receiving yards, with a minimum of 15 touchdowns, just based on what OC Ryan Grubb and Walker have shown us so far. The only reasons Walker doesn’t have more production is a) injuries and b) how poorly other parts of the team played during his first 2 games back.

If it doesn’t seem like Walker has been productive because he hasn’t hit 100 rushing yards since Week 1, consider these numbers:

• He didn’t just miss 2 games, he missed 2 amazing opportunities to put up big numbers against the Patriots and Dolphins

• He’s averaging over 93 total yards per game and he’s been a factor in all 5 games, whether that’s as a runner or a receiver

• He’s caught 23 passes for 160 yards, on track for career-highs in both categories: He’s gone from 1.9 to 4.6 receptions per game and 17.3 receiving yards to 32.

• Walker has scored in 4 of his 5 games and is only 3 TD shy of a new career-high; 4.7 YPC is also a career-high, a number I hesitate to share because I think it is going to get better

The Seahawks get one more season with Walker after this one and then must make a decision regarding how much “the running back” is worth to the team’s Super Bowl aspirations on his next contract offer. Seattle can start having those discussions as soon as next year and one side (Walker) has gained much more leverage recently than the other, which is exactly what Schneider and Pete Carroll hoped would happen when the Seahawks picked Walker despite a significant campaign on Twitter to not do that.

Given recent developments at the running back position this season and Walker’s pending negotiations, it’s worth discussing what to expect moving forward with a player who has fulfilled his draft day promise as a fan favorite.

Running Back Free Agency Has Changed

The two best free agent signings in the NFL this year were running backs and that’s not something that gets advertised very often because we’ve been told over and over again that “running backs don’t matter”.

The Eagles signed Saquon Barkley to a 3-year contract worth $12.6 million per season and the Ravens signed Derrick Henry to a 2-year contract worth $8 million per season. Henry is a legit MVP candidate (but will always lose to the Ravens QB), having rushed for 873 yards and 8 TD in his first 7 games, over 200 yards more than second place. Barkley is third with 658 yards and has 5 touchdowns.

They are posting these numbers because they are Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley, not because they play in certain schemes with certain offensive lines.

Barkley’s $12.6 million AAV was the 20th-most expensive free agent signing this year (not including the players who re-signed before free agency) and made him less expensive than guys like Chase Young, Gabe Davis, and Damien Lewis. Nick Wright said the Eagles overpaid for a running back.

Henry was cheaper than Barkley, tied for the 47th-most expensive deal at $8 million AAV. Cheaper than Jordyn Brooks, Jadeveon Clowney, and Sam Darnold; current success aside, the previous version of Sam Darnold got more money than Henry. Few people were against the deal since it’s Henry and it’s the Ravens but there’s always Jason LaCanfora, who said Henry wasn’t worth even that small amount.

Come up with any response to those RB$ numbers that you want: If you tell me that I can add Henry or Barkley to a team for less money than Dre’Mont Jones, sign me up immediately. I’ll take two.

Some say Giants GM Joe Schoen should be fired for not re-signing a running back. There are those saying that the Ravens will finally get over their playoff disappointment and get back to the Super Bowl because of a running back.

Who would have imagined phrases like that possible a couple of years ago?

A couple of years ago is also when the Seahawks drafted a running back in the second round and were threatened by the Internet to “take it back, or else”; that it would be better to waste the pick on a quarterback even if there were no quarterbacks worth taking.

If we were to rank all of the Seahawks draft picks since 2022 by “bravery”, Walker and Zach Charbonnet in the second round would be in the top 2 positions. This does not inherently make them good picks, they’re just the “bravest picks” because running back is the only position that has an active and loud online campaign against teams making significant investments into it. You are allowed to pay Dak Prescott $60 million per season, you are not allowed to draft a running back in the second round…according to some.

Kenneth Walker III is the Core of Seahawks Offense

While Kenneth Walker has yet to reach a peak like Henry or Barkley, or even Josh Jacobs, the fact is that the Seahawks hold the rights to Walker, get first right to negotiations, and win games because of him.

If the Seahawks play their cards right with Walker, he could be Seattle’s starting running back for the next 5-6 years. That may not sound like a long time when you first hear it, but a running back lasting nine years with the same team is rare and usually only happens with players as good as Walker.

If you think I’m overrating Walker, that’s totally fine. I’d just ask that you re-live some of his highlights against the Falcons by watching this video by All_22 films:

I became a fan of Walker two summers ago, and even before the draft I let Seahawks fans know that there was nothing wrong with wanting Seattle to pick Walker or Breece Hall. A pro-running back article in 2022 felt like writing a confession that I was a witch in 1822, but somebody had to do it.

Walker was a prolific scorer in college (3 predictions I made before his career started: He’s going to score a lot of touchdowns, he’s going to improve a lot as a receiver, he’s going to be the best in the league at hitting the edge) and he’s already scored 7 times in his first 5 games. Had he not missed 2 games with an oblique injury, we might already be talking about Walker leading the NFL in TDs and as top-5 in rushing.

Kenneth Walker’s Contract Status

I wrote about his contract potential in June after the Patriots extended Rhamondre Stevenson to a 4-year contract worth $9 million AAV. But now I think Walker is on track to first surpass Stevenson, then Jacobs next, and then he’s coming for Jonathan Taylor.

If you think that it’s too soon to talk about Walker’s contract, I understand. But hear me out: What better time to celebrate why we like Kenneth Walker than as Kenneth Walker is happening? I don’t want to be restricted to only talking about Walker’s future in the future, because I won’t remember all the feelings experienced during the games as clearly as I do now and what I would tell my future self right now based on those experiences is: “Walker is going to get paid.”

Not every good team has a great running back, just like not every good team has a great quarterback. Not every great running back is on a good team, and that would apply to any position. Not every running back has the same value regardless of talent, confidence, competitiveness, and work ethic, and that should be too obvious to need to be said by a GM after a draft pick.