Could Seahawks still blindside the fans with Kenneth Walker extension?

Kenneth Walker is still the best RB in the 2022 class, but we haven't heard a peep about an extension

While the Los Angeles Rams have been open about their intention to extend Kyren Williams, the 15th running back off the board in the 2022 draft, the Seattle Seahawks have not even touched the rumor mill as it pertains to the future of Kenneth Walker, the 2nd running back picked in the same class.

If the Rams will extend Williams, the Seahawks might “blindside” us with an extension for Walker, a better running back with a higher ceiling who is potentially on the verge of a breakout season.

The only logical reason for Williams to get an extension before Walker, a player who might not be extended at all, is timing. It’s not because Walker isn’t a better running back than Williams — because he is — it’s more about the fact that Walker missed six games due to injury in 2024…whereas Williams had his most serious injuries in 2022 (broken foot) and 2023 (high ankle sprain).

(Williams also had surgery for a broken hand this past January.)

Kenneth Walker had core injuries in 2023 and 2024, a calf strain and an ankle sprain last December, but to this point has missed 10 career NFL games. Williams has missed 13.

Some other comparisons:

Playing in a better system for a running back, Williams has a higher YPC average than Walker, but loses in almost every other category and is especially troublesome as it pertains to fumbling, which also happens to be one of Walker’s greatest strengths. Over three college seasons, Walker never fumbled.

That’s a total of two fumbles in the past six years for Walker. Williams had six fumbles for Notre Dame, giving him a total of 14 fumbles in the past seven years.

• Kyren Williams has averaged 2 fumbles per year since starting college

• Kenneth Walker has 2 TOTAL fumbles since starting college

In addition, Walker was an early second round pick because he’s a 5’9, 211 lbs running back who ran a 4.38 40-yard dash and a 10’2 broad jump with a 34” vertical. Williams was available in the fifth round because he’s 5’9, only 194, and he ran a 4.65 40-yard dash with a 9’8 broad jump and a 32” vertical.

In a vacuum, Kenneth Walker should always be better than Kyren Williams.

Now that the Seahawks have replaced Ryan Grubb with Klint Kubiak and Laken Tomlinson with Grey Zabel, maybe Seattle is finally back to being that vacuum that won’t suck for running backs.

Kenneth Walker contract estimates

If we set aside the contracts for Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Derrick Henry because they are such outliers, then the next “top” of the running back market is Jonathan Taylor at $14 million per season with $19 million fully guaranteed. For all intents and purposes, a contract like the one that Taylor signed with the Colts ends up as a two-year deal worth about $28 million.

The next-most expensive RB contract would be the two-year, $23.5 million extension that Alvin Kamara signed with the Saints last October. As always, New Orleans backed itself into a corner and had to work around it by going even deeper into the crevice.

And then there’s Josh Jacobs, who signed a four-year, $48 million contract with the Packers but in reality he could be cut after making $20 million over two seasons. Jacobs “practical” number is about $10 million per season.

The market for a top-10 starting running back should sit somewhere between $8 million per season on the low end (Chuba Hubbard, D’Andre Swift, Rhamondre Stevenson) and $14 million on the high end (Taylor). Unless you’re one of the MVP candidates — Walker and Williams aren’t — that’s your realistic range in negotiations.

If the Seahawks extended Walker before the 2025 season:

• They could argue to him that $9 million per year is fair and that he could get nothing if gets injured or if he gets replaced by one of the backups.

If the Seahawks don’t extend Walker and then he plays out of his mind:

• Walker could argue that he’s worth $15 million per year as he enters free agency in 2026.

It’s a risk that one side will eventually end up taking, either by taking an extension (risky for both parties) or not (risky for both parties).

However, the Seahawks would have to be REALLY LOW on Walker and/or REALLY HIGH on Zach Charbonnet and Damien Martinez in order to be totally uninterested in keeping 2022’s 41st overall pick beyond next season.

The timing of an extension this summer or fall probably seems like, “Well, why extend him now when his best games were 1-2 years ago?” but the counter-argument for that point is that Kenneth Walker’s extension may never come as cheap as it would while he’s at a low point in his career:

The Colts extended Taylor when he was coming off of a season with 6 missed games. He didn’t rebound that first year on the new deal, but then Talor had 1,431 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2024.

The Eagles signed Barkley as a free agent coming off of a season in which he averaged only 3.9 yards per carry with the Giants. Could Seattle’s change at OC — from one of the worst run play callers in the NFL to potentially one of the best — be a similar change for Walker as if he was completely changing teams?

Most Seahawks fans probably see no reason for an extension before or during the season because Walker’s “what have you done for me lately?” is rather barren. And that could be the best and smartest course of action, to let the future play out and gamble the small chance that he’ll play himself out of Seattle on a high note.

But just because we didn’t see it coming doesn’t mean that it’s out of the picture.

Seaside Joe 2277