Great thought experiment! I can't wait until we see how Grubb's scheme actually looks on game day "for real" with all the 1's playing. I anticpate a lot of RPO where Geno makes the choice based on how the D lines up in the box. More P/A off of formations that look set up for a run, and running out of passing formations (kind of like LA's scheme, frankly). This is gonna be FUN!
I'm very excited to see what both Walker and JSN can do this season. I hope that Geno and the O-line can do their part to help them reach their potential.
Regarding the premise of the "Close Your Eyes" test, have you considered adding and intuition score? Perhaps you could add this to the traits score to combine observation and feeling into a grand total. Or, perhaps more useful, would be to highlight the difference between the two scores to judge how well we think we know a player. For example, I see Walker as a 3.9 today, but I feel he's a 4.3 ready to happen, and a plus 0.4 differential is significant progress for a player with a very good traits score. Tyler Lockett, on the other hand, might be a 3.5 traits value today, but I feel he's really a 2.5 value and that negative 1 point differential is a huge drop that puts him closer to Bobo range than DK.
You could make an intuition value differential table!
Or, maybe I'm missing the point by trying to put values on feelings.
I love the premise, but I would like to have had more data on blocking and receiving. K9 excels in adjusting behind the OL and being able to actually make it work. He’s also king of the open field. He’s not as forceful up the middle, and I honestly don’t have a feel for his blocking and receiving. So, he’s super valuable behind a questionable OL, but might not be well rounded enough to confuse defenses. We should learn much more in 2024.
If we really want to run it up the gut, Charbonet might have more value - if the OL is up to the task. His blocking and receiving might also be stronger, making defenses play against more possibilities.
KM is a guy who plays above his stats. Hopefully, he is mostly healthy and sitting, meaning that the team can stick with the numbers 1 and 2 for the duration.
I kind of like Charbonet on 1st and 3rd downs, where he can deliver body blows early, open up possibilities, benefit the passing game, and hit short yardage plays. K9 can provide explosive plays on 2nd and short, and make something out of nothing on 2nd and long.
KM has the versatility to keep the playbook open, though his ability to beat the man in front of him isn’t as great as what his teammates can deliver.
Overall, it all comes down to the OL, staying healthy, and Grubb’s ability to adapt to pro ball. SEA has the talent in the backfield, if those other factors line up.
I am guessing that Charbs will get a whole series when K9 needs a rest. They have competing strengths, both designed to get opposing D players on tape doing bad things. K9: speed burn /missed tackles; Charbs, hit you so hard you will be flying through the air and crying for your momma.
I think you’re right. While I “kind of” like them on different downs, it doesn’t usually work that way. By avoiding substitutions, the defense often can’t substitute. And by going with one guy, he can get a feel for the game. What I really want is for both players to have all the strengths. 😎
Charb has always struck me as a guy who can dish out and absorb maximum punishment, making him most valuable early in games when blocking schemes have yet to be fully designed. My bet is this is when Carter damaged his neck, slamming into 330+lb giants for one yard. Hold K9 out during the trials and testing stage of the game. A softened secondary shying from hard tackling is wide open to K9's jukes and spins. Holani strikes me as a guy who could be best at filling in for either of this 1-2 punching. Plus it seems he has found the joy of blocking better than Macintosh's duty to learn to do okay at it. Such a guy immediately knows he must block a blitzer over continuing past him on your route to the flats, which I saw Penny do a number of times. Geno would get leveled before anything could develop.
I can't decide who is going to have the biggest breakout amongst JSN, Witherspoon, and Kenneth Walker. Witherspoon is getting some preseason hype, but I really think people don't know how explosive Grubb's offense can be. Granted, I understand it hasn't been tested at the NFL-level yet...
I agree that Charb is not nearly as valuable to the Hawks as K9. K9 wins a side by side comparison easily as well as the stats case, the eye test and the intuition test. Therefore, Charb should lean into his inner battering ram and turn himself into a Fullback modeled after Miami's Larry Csonka who never lost a yard, maybe he never failed to gain a yard. He was the single most important part of that undefeated season by the Miami Dolphins.
As Philidelphia showed with the last two seasons was that making 4th and 1 99% of the time (Larry Csonka was 100%) brings your team to a new level of dangerous. Being reliable at 4th and one is not something our team has had ever. If Charbonnet can improve our chances at 4th and goal or 4th and one, that would be a great addition to our offense.
I am so ready for this season to get underway. Feeling cautiously optimistic about how this season will unfold.
Cautious because…Seahawk history. Optimistic because…I guess I’m ready for complete and total change. Trying the same thing again and expecting a different result is one definition of crazy. I’m excited at the newness and uncertainty.
Woohoo! Here we go (ok…here we go Sunday afternoon).
Ken, it’s hard to tell what you are trying to accomplish here.
In any case, consider dropping Supply & Demand. The salary cap and rookie scale distorts the market too much for S&D to tell much about an individual player.
Great thought experiment! I can't wait until we see how Grubb's scheme actually looks on game day "for real" with all the 1's playing. I anticpate a lot of RPO where Geno makes the choice based on how the D lines up in the box. More P/A off of formations that look set up for a run, and running out of passing formations (kind of like LA's scheme, frankly). This is gonna be FUN!
I close my eyes and my eyes tell me I can't make a serious judgment until the Hawks get a good line! Sorry.
I'm very excited to see what both Walker and JSN can do this season. I hope that Geno and the O-line can do their part to help them reach their potential.
Regarding the premise of the "Close Your Eyes" test, have you considered adding and intuition score? Perhaps you could add this to the traits score to combine observation and feeling into a grand total. Or, perhaps more useful, would be to highlight the difference between the two scores to judge how well we think we know a player. For example, I see Walker as a 3.9 today, but I feel he's a 4.3 ready to happen, and a plus 0.4 differential is significant progress for a player with a very good traits score. Tyler Lockett, on the other hand, might be a 3.5 traits value today, but I feel he's really a 2.5 value and that negative 1 point differential is a huge drop that puts him closer to Bobo range than DK.
You could make an intuition value differential table!
Or, maybe I'm missing the point by trying to put values on feelings.
I like where your head's at, Grant. I had a similar thought but also considered..."maybe I'm missing the point by trying to put values on feelings."
I love the premise, but I would like to have had more data on blocking and receiving. K9 excels in adjusting behind the OL and being able to actually make it work. He’s also king of the open field. He’s not as forceful up the middle, and I honestly don’t have a feel for his blocking and receiving. So, he’s super valuable behind a questionable OL, but might not be well rounded enough to confuse defenses. We should learn much more in 2024.
If we really want to run it up the gut, Charbonet might have more value - if the OL is up to the task. His blocking and receiving might also be stronger, making defenses play against more possibilities.
KM is a guy who plays above his stats. Hopefully, he is mostly healthy and sitting, meaning that the team can stick with the numbers 1 and 2 for the duration.
I kind of like Charbonet on 1st and 3rd downs, where he can deliver body blows early, open up possibilities, benefit the passing game, and hit short yardage plays. K9 can provide explosive plays on 2nd and short, and make something out of nothing on 2nd and long.
KM has the versatility to keep the playbook open, though his ability to beat the man in front of him isn’t as great as what his teammates can deliver.
Overall, it all comes down to the OL, staying healthy, and Grubb’s ability to adapt to pro ball. SEA has the talent in the backfield, if those other factors line up.
I am guessing that Charbs will get a whole series when K9 needs a rest. They have competing strengths, both designed to get opposing D players on tape doing bad things. K9: speed burn /missed tackles; Charbs, hit you so hard you will be flying through the air and crying for your momma.
I think you’re right. While I “kind of” like them on different downs, it doesn’t usually work that way. By avoiding substitutions, the defense often can’t substitute. And by going with one guy, he can get a feel for the game. What I really want is for both players to have all the strengths. 😎
Ditto to Doug...great thought experiment. But I am playing K9 all day unless he wants a breather. No one else. Not even a question to me.
Charb has always struck me as a guy who can dish out and absorb maximum punishment, making him most valuable early in games when blocking schemes have yet to be fully designed. My bet is this is when Carter damaged his neck, slamming into 330+lb giants for one yard. Hold K9 out during the trials and testing stage of the game. A softened secondary shying from hard tackling is wide open to K9's jukes and spins. Holani strikes me as a guy who could be best at filling in for either of this 1-2 punching. Plus it seems he has found the joy of blocking better than Macintosh's duty to learn to do okay at it. Such a guy immediately knows he must block a blitzer over continuing past him on your route to the flats, which I saw Penny do a number of times. Geno would get leveled before anything could develop.
I can't decide who is going to have the biggest breakout amongst JSN, Witherspoon, and Kenneth Walker. Witherspoon is getting some preseason hype, but I really think people don't know how explosive Grubb's offense can be. Granted, I understand it hasn't been tested at the NFL-level yet...
I think they are all going to have breakout seasons.
I agree that Charb is not nearly as valuable to the Hawks as K9. K9 wins a side by side comparison easily as well as the stats case, the eye test and the intuition test. Therefore, Charb should lean into his inner battering ram and turn himself into a Fullback modeled after Miami's Larry Csonka who never lost a yard, maybe he never failed to gain a yard. He was the single most important part of that undefeated season by the Miami Dolphins.
As Philidelphia showed with the last two seasons was that making 4th and 1 99% of the time (Larry Csonka was 100%) brings your team to a new level of dangerous. Being reliable at 4th and one is not something our team has had ever. If Charbonnet can improve our chances at 4th and goal or 4th and one, that would be a great addition to our offense.
Boy Howdy on Csonka! My recall had him driving the team's identity in their unbeaten season.
I am so ready for this season to get underway. Feeling cautiously optimistic about how this season will unfold.
Cautious because…Seahawk history. Optimistic because…I guess I’m ready for complete and total change. Trying the same thing again and expecting a different result is one definition of crazy. I’m excited at the newness and uncertainty.
Woohoo! Here we go (ok…here we go Sunday afternoon).
Ken, it’s hard to tell what you are trying to accomplish here.
In any case, consider dropping Supply & Demand. The salary cap and rookie scale distorts the market too much for S&D to tell much about an individual player.
Walker is the real deal - IF he can stay healthy-