Seahawks RBs and the 'Close Your Eyes' test

Rating every Seahawks player with a 6-category, 5-point system to predict their 2024 seasons and futures: Seaside Joe 2014

Is it possible that we can bridge the gap between “analytics” and “intuition” this year? If not as soon as this week before the Seahawks open their season? With the help of an old buddy who has inspired a few Seaside Joe newsletters for me this summer, I think we can.

Today I’m going to unveil the biggest and most explosive* series in the history of Seaside Joe’s premium section for Regular Joes and Super Joes subscribers: The 2024 Seattle Seahawks “Close Your Eyes” test for all 53 players on the opening week roster.

*Is this guy talking about Apollonia again already?

What is the “Close Your Eyes” test?

As you know, I’ve referenced Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking, Fast and Slow” a lot this summer and one note I gave myself for a good series was the “Close Your Eyes” test that he references in part two of his book. Here is Kahneman’s explanation of the test and its effectiveness from a Ted Talk podcast:

Adam Grant:
Jumping in here, because this is such a cool example, but it needs a little explaining. Danny created a system for interviewers to rate job candidates on specific traits-- like work ethic, analytical ability, or integrity. But interviewers did not take it well.

Daniel Kahneman:
They really hated that system when I introduced it. And they told me, I mean, I vividly remember one of them saying, 'you're turning us into robots,'

Adam Grant:
Danny decided to test which approach worked best. Was it their intuition or their ratings from the data? The answer… was both. Their ratings plus their intuition. But not their intuition at the beginning… their intuition at the end, after they did the ratings.

Daniel Kahneman:

That is you rate those six traits, and then close your eyes and just have an intuition. it turned out that that intuition at the end was the best single predictor. It was just as good as the average of the six traits and it added information. You know, I was surprised. You know, I just was doing that as a favor to them, letting them have intuitions, but the discovery was very clear and we ended up with a system in which the average of the sixth traits and the final intuition had equal weight.

I liked that a lot, so I decided to try and apply it to the Seahawks. I come up with six categories that I can judge on a 1-5 point scale, then with the help of the “data”, I close my eyes and decide from there what my “intuition” tells me will happen in the future. These predictions won’t be totally accurate, but I trust Kahneman with my life so maybe they’ll be more accurate than without combining data and feelings.

Part II: Wide receivers

Part III: Defensive Bigs

Part IV: Linebackers

Part V: Tight Ends

Part VI: Interior O Bigs

I’ll share this first article as today’s FREE Seaside Joe, but the remaining posts in the series will be exclusive to paid members. It’s only $5 per month for Regular Joes, or you can pay $55 right now and you’ll be entirely paid up from now through the 2025 offseason. Super Joes will get you every single thing that Regular Joes get, plus participation in a regular Q and A session for our mailbag.

The 6 traits

History (Sliding Scale NFL production)

Health (Last 5 years)

Athleticism (Combine/Pro Day testing+Estimated Decline)

Consistency (Percentage of ‘Good’ vs ‘Less Good’ Seasons or Games)

Supply and Demand Value (Contract, Draft Status, Trade Value)

Versatility (Positional and Scheme)

It was not easy to pick only six traits, especially because I feel I’m unqulalified to rate very important intangible qualities like “competetitiveness” (maybe the most important trait of all), “leadership”, and “toughness/dawg”, but I think what we can measure is also critically important.

History: How productive has this player been IN THE NFL and how productive has he been recently?

Health: Injury history/durability and durability concerns

Athleticism: How was the testing and how long ago was it?

Consistency: Hard to measure, I think, but fair to estimate a score

Supply and demand: The trait I’m a little iffy on, but the reason I included it was that the pre-draft process is the most rigorous evaluation of a football player’s entire life and that gives us an idea of what all 32 teams believe about this player; similarly, free agency and the trade market can tell us everything about what the NFL thinks about a veteran player

Versatility: Can you play multiple positions and for different kinds of coaches?

Got ideas for different traits that could be measured?

Today I’m starting with running backs, in part because I felt like Kenneth Walker’s score would be one of the less controversial ratings I could share with you. He’s one of my favorite players, not only on the Seahawks but in the entire league, I believe he has the potential to be an All-Pro. Which I think would be good for you to keep in mind that I said that if you get to his score and think it’s too low.

Walker’s first two seasons were good, not great, so his current score doesn’t reflect what his score could be by the middle or end of the season.

Again, I’ll be doing QBs, WRs, OLs, CBs, etc., so make sure you’re a subscriber not to miss anything! Or give a Seahawks fan a gift subscription today if you think they’d enjoy Seaside Joe for the next 1-12 months.

HERE IS A RUNNING LIST OF SEASON PREDICTIONS SO FAR:

Seahawks WRs (Metcalf, Lockett, Bobo, JSN, Shenault, Young)

RB Kenneth Walker III:

History: 3.5/5

Health: 4.5/5

Athleticism: 5/5

Consistency: 3/5

Versatility: 4/5

Supply and Demand: 3.5/5

Of course, all the scores are curved by position. A receiver is going to have a different bar for athleticism than a guard or a quarterback or a linebacker. A running back probably isn’t going to play as many positions as, say, a safety in Mike Macdonald’s defense would, but there is still more than one way to be useful. A rookie isn’t going to have any history and he’s going to get dinged for it. Oh well, that’s a universal ding—every rookie loses points.

Where Walker scores his most points for me would be his elite athleticism (4.38 40-yard dash is better than all RB scores in 2023-2024 other than DeVon Achane (4.32), Isaac Guerendo (4.33), Jahmyr Gibbs (4.36), and Keaton Mitchell (4.37)), but combined with his skills as a running back, that’s a score I think deserves placement in the top-5 of the league at the position.

Kenneth Walker top plays 2022 / Top plays 2023

Walker has missed a few games in his career, but has been relatively healthy dating all the way back to high school. And I think he’s scheme versatile, excelling in Wake Forest’s slow mesh, Michigan State’s spread offense, and Shane Waldron’s version of a Sean McVay offense, but I also think he has positional versatility if the Seahawks need him to split wide or return kicks.

Where Walker has the most room for improvement is that he’s had a good career so far, but he’s underachieved. He ranked 19th in rushing yards last season and even if there’s a lot of context missing, don’t I need room to give him a 4 or a 5 in this category next year if he rushes for 1,500 yards? I gave him a 3.5 in history because he’s good and he could be better.

Same score for supply and demand. In most cases, running backs have a huge supply and little demand, but elite running backs are still valuable. He may never be as valuable as Christian McCaffrey because Walker hasn’t been utilized in the passing game like that but as a trade chip or a free agent, I say he would have a lot of suitors. I still think he’s closer to Jonathan Taylor than Rhamondre Stevenson, running backs separated by $5 million in annual salary.

Finally, Walker’s lowest score for me is consistency. Yes, Walker’s 2022 and 2023 seasons look very similar. This is a player who went off at times during his rookie campaign, but we didn’t see “that guy” very often in 2023 and he averaged only 3.8 yards per carry with only two touchdowns in the second half of the season. Walker should be explosive, Walker should be elusive, and Walker should be able to finish carries in the end zone…consistently.

Therefore, my total score for Kenneth Walker comes to 23.5 over six categories and an average score of 3.91/5.

Kenneth Walker III: 3.9/5

Greatest strengths: Elite athleticism, Barry Sanders-lite elusiveness, dependability (one thing that is consistent is that Walker doesn’t fumble), and versatility

Greatest weaknesses: Hasn’t improved on rookie season (will he?), devalued position without transcending via receptions, week-to-week inconsistency

Now the final step is intuition…

Intuition

When I close my eyes and imagine what Walker’s season will look like, I see 1,250 rushing yards and almost 5.0 yards per carry. To me, Walker’s getting closer to being that kind of running back in the top-five for rushing yards, especially with the addition of Ryan Grubb. 1,250 would have ranked second in 2023, but only sixth in 2022, so it’s a good number and not the top number most years.

On Grubb’s offense, DK Metcalf said:

“Our run game (will be the bread and butter of the offense), we’re going to run the ball downhill and make the defense stop our run first…It all just starts with the run game and building a foundation from there…Grubb said (during the first meeting), ‘All right guys, I knew we had explosive players, but we’re going to run the ball.’”

If you put Walker in an offense that asks him to catch 70 passes, he can do it. Maybe similar to a LeSean McCoy type. But if the Seahawks really like the idea of increasing Walker’s rushing attempts (averaged about 220 so far, but leage leaders are over 250), they might want to pass off those targets to Seattle’s other backs.

Walker is a 3.9 today, but could have a ceiling of ~4.5.

RB Zach Charbonnet

History: 2/5

Health: 4.5/5

Athleticism: 4/5

Consistency: 3/5

Versatility: 3.5/5

Supply and Demand: 2.5/5

Charbonnet’s case is exponentially harder to evaluate than Walker’s because his career his half as long and he’s only had 25% as many touches. That’s why I could not give him a good score for History because we didn’t see a lot and most of what we saw didn’t go much higher than “acceptable”. I also can’t really say if Charbonnet is consistent or not because he didn’t get a full workload. In the three games in which he played the most, Weeks 10-12 while Walker was out, he was consistent but not in a way that was explosive or showed that he needs to start.

Charbonnet top plays 2023

Walker had the second-highest athleticism score for running backs in 2022, while Charbonnet’s ranked 16th in 2023. But it’s not that Charbonnet is a bad athlete. They’re built different, as Walker has a lower center of gravity (5’9 vs 6’1) but is roughly the same weight as Charbonnet (210-215) and quite a bit faster. However, this makes them a good pairing and I’m sure as a defender it gets exhausting to switch back and forth between a running back who will run around you and a running back who will run right through you.

It’s hard to say if Charbonnet would have become as good at Michigan as what he did for Chip Kelly at UCLA. Is he scheme versatile or is he never going to be as good as he was for Kelly? Charbonnet went from 5.1 yards per carry at Michigan to 5.6 YPC in 2021 to 7.0 YPC in 2022. How he fits with Grubb and whether or not he can be like a fifth receiver when he’s out there will say a lot about his versatility moving forward. We heard a lot about Charbonnet’s receiving ability going into the draft but didn’t see it much during his rookie season.

As far as supply and demand goes, it’s funny because you’d think that as second round picks that Walker and Charbonnet would be equals. I don’t think so. Whereas Walker and Breece Hall were by far the two best RB prospects in 2022, Charbonnet for me falls into a much fatter category and was interchangeable with quite a few backs who got picked after he did. In fact, here we are a year later and the back picked 237th doesn’t seem like he’s that far behind him on Seattle’s depth chart.

Overall, Charbonnet gets a total score of 19.5 out of a possible 30.

Zach Charbonnet: 3.25/5

Greatest strengths: Toughness, Durability, and he’s a Good Athlete; he could complement Walker similar to David Montgomery-to-Jahmyr Gibbs

Greatest weaknesses: Not a lot of evidence at the pro level, somewhat inconsistent (averaged 3.75 yards per carry in the final 10 games), lacks an elite ‘gear’ so he relies on his power so much that it could put him in harm’s way, unlikely to surpass Walker on the depth chart so could be RB2 for a while

Intuition

When I close my eyes and imagine what Charbonnet’s season could look like, I do see a tough player who is running into too many walls because he’s relying on his power as a fallback for not being that fast, not being that elusive, and maybe not always recognizing the right path to take. Charbonnet has the potential to be a productive back as a starter (ceiling: Josh Jacobs) but won’t get many touches this season while Walker is healthy. I’d go as far as to say that Seattle would listen to trade offers for Charbonnet in the future if Walker goes off and then they also start to get good feelings about McIntosh and George Holani.

I think the team would ideally like to see Charbonnet be that bruiser at the goal line and short yardage situations because in spite of his toughness, he scored only once as a rookie. In 22 red zone carries, Charbonnet had 14 yards, one touchdown, and he was targeted once (incomplete).

You start him with a good offensive line, Charbonnet has Pro Bowl potential. As an RB2 behind a questionable o-line, I’m not sure if Charbonnet can do much more than he did last season.

RB Kenny McIntosh

History: 1/5

Health: 2/5

Athleticism: 2/5

Consistency: 2/5

Versatility: 3.5/5

Supply and Demand: 1/5

This is where we get to the players on the roster who won’t usually get high scores and that’s probably going to lead to a few uneasy reactions, but I don’t think there’s much I have to defend with McIntosh.

Has he played in the NFL? No, he missed almost every game last season (so there’s an injury concern) and he only played 13 snaps, all on special teams. he had one of the worst athleticism scores at the 2023 combine, dropping him to the seventh round after a career at Georgia that wasn’t very productive because he was often surpassed by better backs.

I’m not saying that McIntosh couldn’t significantly increase his stock this season. I am saying that without knowing the future, McIntosh would be called a “dime-a-dozen” running back right now who compares to players who could be poached from a practice squad at any time.

On the bright side, he’s got practically no tread on his tires (280 rushing attempts since 2019) and what we’ve seen in the preseason and heard out of training camp has always been very encouraging. But I think the Seahawks would tell you (if you kept it a secret) that he and Holani are about the same value (not the same RB) and the only reason McIntosh made the roster over him was the likelihood that Holani would clear waivers and make it to the practice squad. My evaluation gives McIntosh only 11 total points.

Kenny McIntosh: 1.9/5

Greatest strengths: Whereas Walker has that dog in him, McIntosh is a brand new puppy with all sorts of potential to eat; probably never a number one back but could have a long career as a versatile reserve a la Boston Scott; might be able to complement as pass catcher in 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE)

Greatest weaknesses: From what we can measure, McIntosh is a bad athlete relative to the above-average NFL running back; missed almost his entire rookie season with injury; not praised for his pass blocking and could be stuck on the sidelines during special teams, which he can’t afford

Intuition

When I close my eyes and imagine McIntosh in 2024, I see a player who needs to stay healthy for the entire year and hope he can make a mark on special teams just to increase his odds of sticking with Seattle in the future. Getting into the field could be challenging though because the Seahawks seemingly picked Laviska Shenault and Dee Williams to return kicks and McIntosh won’t be getting favored over Charbonnet or Walker unless an injury happens.

Last season’s third back, DeeJay Dallas, had 10 carries and six receptions over 17 games. Which brings me to another point, which is that teams always have these backs buried on the roster like a Dallas or a Travis Homer and fans tend to wonder “What if?” because guys like Chris Carson and Isiah Pacheco exist (Pacheco ran a 4.37 by the way, he’s faster than Walker).

I get it, McIntosh almost looked like a starting running back in the preseason (56-yard touchdown here). When you see McIntosh run past Cleveland’s defensive players, you have to remember that his 4.62 speed will play a lot better against the Browns’ backups than against NFL starters.

I still think the team could have gone either way between him and Holani and because Holani is the better blocker, the two could flip this season. I’m not giving practice squad players a score, but we can imagine that Holani’s would be about the same as McIntosh. Whereas McIntosh has little experience and no tread, Holani has more tread (685 carries at Boise State) but more evidence of who he is.

Okay, from here on out, all of the Close Your Eyes tests results for the remaining positions will be for Regular Joes and Super Joes subscribers only and I will be sending them all out before the Seahawks game in three days.