Seahawks Obviously Dangerous Again

How Seahawks can clinch a 1-seed in Week 17 and rest starters in Week 18

Winning is so much more fulfilling than losing.

Instead of my mid-game plan to subtly ignore what happened on Thursday night for the following 24 hours, I’ve been obsessed with the Seahawks 38-37 win over the Rams. Who among us in the Seaside Joe community isn’t going through SODA since last night?

(Seahawks Obsessive Disorder Affliction)

(Sam “Optimal” Darnold Arrangement)

(Seattle’s Overtime Dominance Assignment)

(Seaside-Only Dialogue Allowed)

(Saubert Open! Don’t Ask!)

(Sooooo…. Okay. Damn! Alright.)

Instead of having to root for the Steelers to beat the Lions this weekend just to make sure that Seattle’s playoff berth was clinched, we can focus on what can happen to help the Seahawks clinch the number one seed before Week 18.

Here’s what would clinch the NFC West before Week 18:

• Seahawks beat Panthers, improve to 13-3

• 49ers lose to either the Colts or the Bears, they can’t do better than 12-5

• Rams lose to Falcons, they can’t do better than 12-5

Under these circumstances, Seattle would win the NFC West next week. If the 49ers lose to the Colts on Monday, then we know that all that has to happen is a Seattle win and an L.A. loss.

To clinch the 1-seed:

• All that + Bears lose to Packers or Niners

The only other team that has a sliver of a chance at the 1-seed is the Bears, but it’s not likely. Chicago would need to win out (Packers, Niners, Lions) and have the Seahawks finish 13-4 with a loss to the 49ers. Seattle can clinch the 1-seed next week and rest their starters in Week 18 against San Francisco, giving their hurt players two weeks off to recuperate.

So yes, we get to talk about how the Seahawks can clinch the 1-seed rather than worrying about how Seattle can even make the playoffs and what their chances are on the road in the wild card round.

Sorry! Only Divisional-playoffs Allowed!

I read all of your comments after the game. Here are a few choice ones I’ve plucked for the newsletter!

Don Ellis: Sam Darnold: I hope the commentary about him winning big games is put to rest after tonight.

That’s the funny thing about commentary, it’s often wrong or misleading because of recency bias. It was exactly Week 16 a year ago that Darnold goes into Seattle as a Viking and throws a game-winning touchdown to beat the Seahawks.

Other Darnold games last season:

• 4 TD/0 INT to beat the Texans

• 3 TD/1 INT to beat the Packers

• 3 TD/1 INT to beat the Packers again in Week 17

• Helps Vikings come back from 21-10 only to lose to Lions on a FG

• 2 TD/0 INT in his first game against Rams

• 2 TD/1 INT to beat 49ers in Week 2

TD/INT ratio is hardly the best stat, I’m just trying to be efficient. I don’t think anyone would argue that Darnold was bad in those games and those are all examples of good teams, including San Francisco early in 2024. Darnold’s track record was very clearly in his favor last season (14-2!) prior to losing the last two.

Cut to this season and I wouldn’t even argue that Darnold has had his best games against the best teams, but Seattle’s been in every game and he was close to beating the 49ers in Week 1 and beating the Bucs in Week 5. If you get to Week 17 and there’s not a single game that you couldn’t have won on your last drive, guess what: You can win big games.

Ray Farmer’s reply to you in the comments (“It won't be. He needs two more games. SF in two weeks and a SB win.”) is also accurate. Darnold has not yet gotten to the part of the season that cursed him last year so locking in the 1-seed (I’d also add that beating the Panthers next week is a HUGE game and hopefully makes Week 18 moot) is what the Seahawks need to do before anyone forgets how bad he was against the Rams prior to the endgame.

Isaac B: Can Sam Darnold stand tall against the consensus best team in the NFL on a no-shit win or lose play when the road to the #1 seed in the playoffs is resting squarely on his shoulders??

You’re dadgum fuckin-a right he can.

That’s a Begaw.

I have to ask the fans to be honest when they answer this poll question because nobody will negatively judge you if you were skeptical prior to the last play:

Can you describe your emotions going into Seattle’s final drive and final play? Did anyone have flashbacks to “that” Super Bowl?

Samuel Garfield: Boy did you call it in terms of special teams making a difference today, Joe! Special teams is starting to become my favorite phase of the game!

Danno: Can’t wait for the updated EPA ST number

Seahawks posted a special teams EPA of +15.15 according to Pro-Football-Reference, their second-best of the year behind +16.41 against the Saints. That’s four double-digit special teams EPA games on the year, which I believe is the most in the NFL. (The Jets have three of them and a +9.29.)

According to this chart, the Seahawks lead the league in EPA per special teams play, followed by the 49ers:

It is only because of special teams that the Seahawks are essentially tied with the Rams in NET EPA per play. It helps that L.A. has consistently ignored special teams in their team building moments (rotating through coordinators and kickers for years under Sean McVay) and given Seattle opportunities to beat them in the manner that they did on Thursday.

How funny that if you asked any Seahawks fan what team has annoyed them the most based on special teams plays it would be the Rams. Most of those plays came under coordinator John Fassel, who McVay fired for some reason in 2020 without a clear explanation. (Fassel’s Titans are 10th in special teams EPA.)

Seattle is now in first place in the NFC and a lot of credit goes to those decisions to emphasize good special teams hires, signings, and draft picks in the offseason.

Beezo: KK has been talked about a lot. But what about this plot twist, what if - in true Seahawks fashion - the OC gets overlooked, and Jay is the one with HC interviews?

I don’t think Jay Harbaugh getting head coach interviews is out of the question (although I don’t think it’s happening in 2026) but Klint Kubiak is still by far the more attractive head coach for one reason: He’s an offensive coordinator and he’s going to call offensive plays.

Teams are going to have a lot of questions for Harbaugh on who he is going to hire to run the offense AND run the defense because he can do neither. No other head coach candidate can do neither of those jobs. Even the head coaches not hired to call plays (which isn’t that common anymore) sometimes need to take over, as we’ve seen Dan Campbell do with the Detroit Lions this season. Harbaugh can’t take over offense or defense in a pinch.

So if he can’t steal Kubiak and he can’t steal Aden Durde, who is he going to get to be his offensive and defensive coordinators? Heck, even if he gets Durde, the best case scenario is that Durde’s defense is so good that he’s gone in a year. Then who does he hire? Look at how many coordinators that John Harbaugh has had to go through with the Ravens over the years and Baltimore’s long-running issue that if it’s bad it’s bad, but when it’s been good the coach can leave (Macdonald).

I think that’s the main reason why Jay Harbaugh isn’t going anywhere and why special teams legends like Dave Toub and Fassel have never been hired as head coaches. Also, with offensive coordinators making upwards of $6 million per season, it’s more expensive to hire a special teams coordinator as your head coach.

We could fairly pick apart Kubiak’s season and play calling this year, but in an era of struggling offenses I think he’s probably at the front of the line.

Bob Bryan: Can we now say that John f’n Schneider made the best mid-season acquisition IN THE LEAGUE for the 3rd year in a row??

So we are looking at:

• 2023: Leonard Williams (re-signed)

• 2024: Ernest Jones (re-signed)

• 2025: Rashid Shaheed

Kinda starting to feel like Shaheed will be re-signed. Naturally that leads to the question of what Shaheed will cost and that’s a really interesting debate because as exciting as his game-changing plays are he had 0 catches last night. Shaheed is a return man and a gadget player, yet he’s been a huge help to Seattle winning the last two games.

I wonder if there will be a disconnect between what Shaheed’s agent thinks he’s worth and what John Schneider thinks he’s worth.

Keep in mind that there are six players with multiple return touchdowns this season (Shaheed is the only one with 1 PR and 1 KR) and they’re all on their rookie contracts, including Shaheed. The Seahawks also just drafted Tory Horton, a return man and receiver, who they want to see contribute for the next three years.

Seattle’s ideal comp is Kalif Raymond, the Lions 31-year-old return man and gadget weapon who was extended in 2023 on a two-year, $10.5 million deal. I think that’s a compliment to Shaheed (Raymond is a two-time All-Pro) so hopefully it’s a very simple two-year, $12 million contract.

Ryan: In reflecting more on this team, I think about how often they talk about picking each other up in their post game interviews - when the offense has a turnover, the defense’s mindset is let’s go pick them up here instead of a frustration at the offense. Same thing when the defense is having an off day - the mentality is let’s go make a play on offense or special teams.

JIMMY JOHNSON: Tonight I watched our guys re-commit to MacDonald Style Football. It works. Don't ask how...it just does. My Game Ball goes to our Bench Guys. Mike's Support Group.

I think the explanation for me is that the players stopped listening to Pete Carroll (and staff) when the team stopped being good and therefore the players didn’t want to take personal accountability for why the Seahawks weren’t very good from 2021-2023. It was easy for those players to blame the coaching staff or their teammates for their struggles ironically because the coach is telling the media every week that “we’ve got all the right players here already”.

No you didn’t.

Once Schneider could oust Carroll — probably more because of his personnel decisions than his coaching decisions — look at the roster moves, especially targeting several big ticket items to trade or release players who outwardly seemed to struggle the most with accountability.

Obviously Macdonald appears to have a significant modern defensive play calling advantage over Carroll(‘s defensive coordinators), but the players are also better players and when you have better players, you play better. When you play better, you win more. And when you win, you’re not looking for people to blame.

BW: Hat off to Kupp for the toe tap catch, especially after the fumble in 1H. The throw by Sam was insane -- tiny window! And how about that Zachwards Pass as they called it in the broadcast?!

“Zachwards Pass”. Nice, I haven’t heard that one! BW original???

Just a note about tight window throws from Darnold: He’s still shy about those.

Darnold had a tight window% of 8.8% last night, according to Next Gen Stats. That’s well below his season average of 13.7% and that number is only that low because Darnold has backed off of tight window throws since the Rams game. He’s roughly 9% since then compared to roughly 16% before.

Darnold has also backed off of deep throws: He went 1-of-2, including the 26-yard touchdown to A.J. Barner that was designed for Barner to fake outside and cut back to the right based on Seattle running the play that way several times earlier in the game.

Darnold’s deep pass rate is about 5% over the last four games compared to being over 12% in the first 11 games.

This may not mean a whole lot, right? Trends aren’t really trends. Changes could just be momentary shifts in strategy based on situational needs at the time. The Seahawks could start airing it out again in the playoffs and Darnold has proven he can throw a great bomb with the best of them.

On Cooper Kupp, I appreciate the clutch plays he made after the fumble. Based on the season he’s having, I hope he can win another Super Bowl in February prior to his retirement as a Seattle Seahawk. It was painfully obvious last night how badly the Seahawks need a WR2. By the way, virtually all of Darnold’s production came:

• To players coming out of the backfield (7-of-7, 106 yards)

• To players in the slot (59 yards, 2 TD)

• To players in the middle of the field

Virtually nothing happened to outside routes and players lined out wide (81 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT), which is even more notable against a Rams defense that has some of the worst corners in the league. Both touchdowns came on play action, both interceptions came on plays that weren’t play action.

And if the Seahawks play the Rams again in the playoffs, they need to get more pressure on Matthew Stafford. Despite his insane stat line, Stafford was just 5-of-16 for 57 yards when Seattle got him under pressure.

This is where Seattle’s pass rushers (didn’t make it into the article, but Derick Hall was just suspended 1 game for stepping on Rams G Kevin Dotson) kind of only got noticed for how un-noticeable they were on Thursday. Seahawks need a better pass rush plan in the future.

One more defensive note:

With all the secondary players out of the game (Nick Emmanwori seems fine, whereas it looks like Riq Woolen could be out of the woods soon and Coby Bryant may have the longest recovery time), Josh Jobe was a lockdown corner. He allowed 3 catches on 7 targets for 20 yards.

I don’t know if CB stats are overrated, maybe they could be, but Jobe’s stats this season are amazing. He hasn’t allowed more than 55 yards in any game and he’s only allowed 62 yards over the past four games. Hopefully the Seahawks can get him to re-sign too, or in other letters…Stay On, Delay Agency.

Seaside Joe 2482