Seahawks playoff odds back to coinflip if they beat Eagles

Seahawks playoff odds depend heavily on Monday night's outcome against Eagles: Seaside Joe 1750

The Seattle Seahawks will have a 52% chance to make the playoffs if they beat the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday, but that number falls to 13% of they lose, according to the New York Times playoff simulator.

Win (7-7):

Lose (6-8):

Other than the Rams beating the Moons on Sunday, almost all else went about right for Seattle’s playoff chances. But even with L.A., we might as well just ignore what the Rams do, because it is still up to the Seahawks to end their four-game losing streak and at least win their next two games. Do that, and Seattle’s going to be roughly 70% to make the postseason absent of worrying about other outcomes.

And I’m getting UNREASONABLY CONFIDENT about beating the Eagles. How about you?

As a huge favor for not letting Andy Dalton get a win while Bryce Young was out against the Seahawks, potentially causing a massive ripple in the conspiracy to fire Frank Reich, the Carolina Panthers beat the Atlanta Falcons and dropped them to 6-8. And as thanks for not stealing Baker Mayfield away from the field in 2022, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Green Bay Packers and also put them at 6-8. Best of all, the Cincinnati Bengals repaid their debt for breaking my heart and playing red zone defense against Geno Smith by defeating the Minnesota Vikings in overtime on Saturday, and the purple fell to 7-7.

If Seattle gets a win at home against Philadelphia, their 7-7 record will tie the Vikings, Rams, and Saints; and the Rams play the Saints on Thursday, so in four days one of those teams will be 7-8.

According to the New York Times simulator, it is still preferable for the Saints to win that game. But personally, I could see the argument for rooting for L.A. because while the Rams hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks, New Orleans should be easier to climb over: The Seahawks have a better conference record than the Saints, plus it seems more likely that New Orleans will lose to Tampa in Week 17 than it is that L.A. will lose to the Giants in Week 17.

Again, the only emphasis here is on the Seahawks beating the Eagles on Monday, then not squandering that victory when they face the Titans in a week. Why am I feeling optimistic about a team on a four-game losing streak set to host a Philly team that just clinched their playoff ticket without playing on Sunday?

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Desai; De-see ya

A day ago, I was tweeting about how the Eagles might be in a defensive tailspin because Matt Patricia was hired as a consultant this year. By Sunday, it was announced that actually Patricia is the new defensive coordinator and former Seattle assistant Sean Desai had been demoted this week. Desai will be in the booth as a consultant, Patricia will be calling defensive plays.

Is that good or bad news, if you’re a Seahawks fan?

As much as I want to hop on the bandwagon of ripping on Patricia, admittedly I didn’t go into the week with any fears about facing Desai. The Eagles have one of the worst defenses in the league already, so making a change that will impact their gameday calls is no less than intriguing.

Patricia served six years as the Patriots defensive coordinator and won two Super Bowls, but had Bill Belichick holding his hand. In three years as head coach of the Lions, Patricia was consistently among the worst defenses in the league: 25th in net yards per pass attempt in 2018, 28th in 2019, and 32nd in 2020.

But those are different players, different roles.

I just hope that Philly’s unpredictableness this week works against them and not against the Seahawks.

Jalen Ills

Not since Michael Jordan’s “flu game” have I been confident of an outcome because of a star player’s illness. Jalen Hurts is sick this weekend, but preparing as if he’ll be cleared by Monday night. Will his body be at 100%, even if he’s cleared?

I’m not over the fact that backup Marcus Mariota led the Falcons to a 27-23 victory over the Seahawks last season, so I’m kind of “whatever” about the whole situation. Nobody knows who is starting at quarterback for either team right now, which could still maybe be less of a story than the fact that neither Seattle nor Philly has a defense capable of getting themselves off of the field: The Seahawks are 28th in defensive plays, the Eagles are 32nd.

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Super Joes questions

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Seasider Roger Woitte

Pete believes in people and gives them chances to contribute, improve etc. Who should run out of chances and be let go before the end of the season?

Always good to see you, Roger.

I don’t anticipate any notable names released before the end of this season. At this point, you just ride it out with who you have unless there’s an injury that forces a decision based on positional needs. However, I could see time running out for a few players.

Dee Eskridge has played 18 snaps. I am ashamed to say that I fell for spring and offseason reports that he was one of the players that Pete Carroll was most excited about this year. It doesn’t even matter that he was suspended six games, he hasn’t shown us anything as a pro football player to make me think he needs to take up a roster spot in 2024.

The Seahawks should sign a veteran cornerback who can compete with Riq Woolen as a starter. It’s not that Woolen has to go, but he has to be pushed. Seattle had Ahkello Witherspoon on the roster in 2021 and while I wouldn’t say trading him is regrettable, he is now playing lights out for the Rams. It’s not advisable to enter next season with only Woolen, Mike Jackson, and Tre Brown as corners next to Devon Witherspoon.

I think it’s beating a dead horse to mention Jamal Adams again. I think Adams, Will Dissly (unfortunately), and Quandre Diggs are the most obvious cap casualties. And Phil Haynes should be allowed to leave in free agency.

One player who I’m leaning the other way with lately is Darrell Taylor. He’s still young and inexperienced, so I’d be hesitant to have Taylor leave and develop somewhere else and become a better player. That’s a guy who I have more patience for than I expected.

One more from Roger:

Favorite football movies

I finished watching all of Big Brother, and now I’m onto watching every episode of Siskel and Ebert that’s on YouTube. You can see the entire playlist here. I just got to 1980.

One of their favorite movies is North Dallas Forty, which I haven’t seen yet. I think the only key to a “good sports movie” is that first it has to be a good movie. Any relationship to football should only be a detail because we don’t actually care about how the sport looks in the movie, right? If we wanted to watch a football game, nothing would compare to a real football game.

It’s like, Draft Day is closely related to football…but I think it’s a BAD movie. Can you ignore that it is a bad movie because it’s two hours of content about a thing you love?

Jerry Maguire is only tangentially related to football, but it is related to football. And I think it’s a great movie. Probably depends on what day you ask me this question, I’ll have a different answer. I like Jerry Maguire, I’ll go with that one today. What do you say, Seasiders? Best football movies, go:

Seasider Loaf Bench

What about an early look at the next drafts crop of quarterbacks?

My mind goes there too, Loaf. I definitely intend to do so in the future, and have only been hesistant for draft previews because I worry I do too much looking ahead to next offseason based on recent lack of success. As much as possible, I want to appease the need to stay focused on the current Seahawks.

Another reason I don’t is that we still don’t know if the Seahawks will pick 8 or 18 or somewhere in between. I have a LOT of thoughts on quarterbacks, both current ones in the league and next year’s draft class.

For those wondering, Grayson McCall has transferred to NC State, the same place it all started for Russell Wilson. I thought maybe we’d see McCall in the 2022 draft, he didn’t declare. I thought maybe we’d see him in 2023, he didn’t declare. I DEFINITELY thought we’d see him in 2024, and he didn’t declare.

Transferring away from NC State turned Wilson from a baseball prospect to a draft prospect. Maybe transferring to NC State will turn Mcall into a draft prospect.

Seasider Ian Lamberton:

Okay - I again heard a couple sports talk people saying how "talented" these players are. Sorry, I want to know who we're talking about, really. Gimme a list. And since, in a way, everyone who makes it to the NFL is "talented," what we're really looking for is "super-talented." We heard for example for a long time how "talented" Darrell Taylor was. Well, maybe he was at Tennessee and before he hurt his leg, talented enough to make it to the NFL. But talented enough to set the edge consistently, stop runs, and make lots of sacks? If the jury's out, I wouldn't put him on the list. To win in the NFL, you have to be better than all the other players who are equally talented. You have to be better than average. And really, much better than average. So, who do we have that's better than average? I'll start the list... Michael Dickson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Ken Walker (?) Abe Lucas, JSN... But are they Cooper Kupp, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Trent Williams, Micah Parsons, Bobby Wagner in his prime talented? To me, that's talented. So, who's really talented? Gimme a list.

In addition to sending in questions, I also told Super Joes that they were free to write comments, opinions, and questions to the community. Good job to run with that, Ian.

What does the community think: What does “talented” mean to you and who are the Seahawks most talented players?

Seasider Rusty:

KJ wright says that the team is lacking in vocal leaders and that there should be at least 4. He sort of pointed at DK as being a problem. How much stock do we put in a former player saying this?

I’ll put some stock into it! I do assume that players come into the NFL with a different attitude and mindset in 2023 than they did when K.J. Wright was a rookie in 2011. The world is different, but also the Internet is different, and college football is extremely different. It’s like an entirely new set of rules in the last three years!

I think that younger players are maybe harder to “lead” today than they were when Wright was on the team and that was not even that long ago.

Maybe he’s saying that Metcalf, who is now a senior member of the team, isn’t taking on that type of leadership role that his predecessors would have when they had been in the NFL for five years. And I can’t say that I’ve seen a shred of evidence so far that would suggest that Wright is wrong.

Seasider Grant:

I hurt my ankle last week, so running laps for Lock hasn't happened for me yet. It's been so long since this idea was a thing, that I've forgotten what the specifics were. If I recall correctly, you were going to run five miles for each TD pass all in one go. I'm curious if you are still running regularly and if you logged a 10 mile run for last weeks performance?

For those who weren’t here then or have forgotten, I said that if Drew Lock won the QB competition last year that I would run 5 miles for every touchdown pass in 2022. He didn’t even throw a pass. If Lock is the starter in 2024, we can definitely bring back Laps 4 Lock.

Seasider Paul G:

On his weekly appearance on Brock & Salk, Pete Carroll was both discouraged and fed up—sounding every bit like a coach who has lost control of his team. Has he lost control of the team and what does that mean going forward?

Reply by Seasider Grant:

Good question. My take on his comments and general attitude is that he's disappointed because he believes these guys are so much better than what they are putting out on the field. It seems like he's seeing it in practice and in their meeting rooms, but it's not translated to game-day performance. Last year I think we lacked for good players (especially on defense). This year I think the talent is there, but they are falling short of their potential. Pete is frustrated, but I'm not certain that is the same as loss of control. He's challenging his leaders to step up or make way for new voices.

Good question, good reply by Grant. I think my post on Friday happens to serve as a bit of a longer answer for my thoughts on this, which is that I think that the perception of “losing a locker room” is heightened when a team is 6-7 and loses four straight. So basically, if that perception would still exist if the Seahawks were 8-5, which is a perfectly reasonable expectation given some of Seattle’s close losses this year, then I can respect that opinion.

However, I agree with Bobby Wagner’s take that the media searches for a “problem” sometimes when there isn’t a problem and that winning cures all.

Even after all these years and all that’s happened, it seems like Marshawn Lynch still respects Pete Carroll and who has a better reason to turn on Seattle’s head coach than Beast Mode? Carroll credited Lynch for being a guy that got everyone else on board during the good years because if you could earn the respect of him, everyone else would follow. Based on Lynch’s comments on Thursday that Richard Sherman shouldn’t turncoat against the Seahawks, it doesn’t feel like B. Mode has lost faith.

Maybe it’s up to someone like DK Metcalf now to say, “Hey guys, let’s listen to coach.” Or maybe Seattle should hire Marshawn as an assistant.

Either of those options works for me.