Seahawks restructure Tyler Lockett's contract

Will Lockett be the first age-32 receiver in the last 10 years to reach 1,000 yards? Seaside Joe 1531

A few days ago, I wrote about the current and future salary cap situation of the Seattle Seahawks, including their restructure candidates. I wrote off the possibility of the Seahawks restructuring Tyler Lockett next year due to his age and what it would do to his 2025 salary cap commitments, but on Thursday the organization did choose to use his contract to create room this year.

By turning $8.535 million of Lockett’s salary into a signing bonus, the Seahawks save $5.69 million now but increase his potential dead money to $19.8 million if released in 2024, when Lockett will be 32. At $26,795,000 in 2024, Lockett ranks seventh among receivers in cap hit, behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Stefon Diggs, and Chris Godwin.

I don’t suspect Williams will reach 2024, and Allen, who is the only one here who is the same age as Lockett, is in similar danger of trade or release. By next season, Lockett could rank in the top-five, as the Chargers save at least $20 million by releasing either of their receivers and they just picked Quentin Johnston in the first round to finally hedge the position.

The Seahawks potential savings with Lockett is now reduced to $6.9 million in cap savings and $19.8 million in dead money.

And I know…”Tyler Lockett is going to be the Tom Brady of receivers because of how he plays the game and his body type and his skillset and because he trains in the offseason by selling houses!” I’m sure I agree with all of your reasons too. I am a fan of Tyler Lockett also! Obviously the Seahawks have people in the organization—many of them, from John Schneider and Pete Carroll all the way down to scouts and assistant coaches and accountants—who are just as aware of the dwindling number of over-29 receivers in the NFL as I am. Or the incredibly short list of receivers in NFL history to have significant success after turning 31 or 32.

Yet they feel comfortable and confident with Lockett, and they know him a lot better than I do, so that’s to be taken into account. Although, they’ve made plenty of bad late-career decisions under Pete and John, including Doug Baldwin, Marshawn Lynch, Kam Chancellor, and Earl Thomas. Maybe they’ve learned from those contract mistakes.

What I do not do at Seaside Joe is say, “Well, I know this is going to happen, so rest easy! Tyler Lockett is the most exceptional receiver in the NFL, so worry not!” And I also won’t say, “Write him off, folks! This decision will look like a mistake in a year!”

Predictions like that will always ring as hollow and disingenuous pleas for attention. What I can do is acknowledge the history of what Tyler Lockett and the Seahawks are looking to accomplish over the next two or three seasons by simply sharing the recent data of the position. These are the receivers since 2010 to reach at least 1,000 yards, sorted by age, ranked from most yards to 1,000:

30 - Wes Welker (2011), Davante Adams (2022), Julio Jones (2019), Antonio Brown (2018), Roddy White (2011), Vincent Jackson (2013), Calvin Johnson (2015), Julian Edelman (2016), Pierre Garcon (2016), Tyler Lockett (2022), Mike Wallace (2016), DeSean Jackson (2016)

Over the past 13 seasons, there have been 12 players to reach 1,000 yards at the age of 30, including Lockett last year. Adams had 1,516 yards on the Raiders last year. Of the other 10 examples, seven won’t appear on this list again.

31 - Andre Johnson (2012), Brandon Marshall (2015), Wes Welker (2012), Roddy White (2012), Jordy Nelson (2016), Santana Moss (2010), Vincent Jackson (2014)

Lockett is entering his age-31 season and along with Adams, looking to be the first receiver in eight years to reach 1,000 yards at that age. Cole Beasley came close in 2020, gaining 967 yards in 15 games. Marvin Jones would be the next-closest in the last five years, gaining 832 yards in 2021.

We can look at some of the above names and reason, “Antonio Brown went crazy” and “Calvin Johnson retired”. But in most cases, the player just fell off and usually what the case is these days: He got hurt and fell off just enough for NFL teams to decide, “I’m not going to pay this veteran $20 million when I could get similar or better production from a player on a rookie contract” and they take that risk.

Adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the roster helps now because the Seahawks needed a great slot receiver but also hedges against that risk.

32 - Andre Johnson (2013), Steve Smith (2011), Reggie Wayne (2010), Larry Fitzgerald (2015)

As noted, Lockett will be 32 in 2024 and he’s posted 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons. So if he gets 1,000 yards in 2023, he will have that opportunity to be the first receiver since Wayne to go 1,000/1,000/1,000 from age 30 to 32. Before him, Randy Moss did it from 2007 to 2009.

We all acknowledge that Moss is one of the top-five receivers of all-time… and his career fell of a cliff when he hit 33. Reggie Wayne lasted a bit longer than that, catching 106 passes for 1,355 yards when he was 34. Marvin Harrison was a top-tier receiver at 33 and 34. Jimmy Smith had six 1,000-yard seasons after turning 30. Jerry Rice led the NFL in receiving yards when he was 31, when he was 32, and when he was 33, and he led the NFL in catches when he was 34!

33 - Anquan Boldin (2013), Steve Smith (2013), Julian Edelman (2019), Larry Fitzgerald (2016)

Boldin had the most yards in this group at 1,179 and the most touchdowns at seven.

The Seahawks are saying, “Tyler Lockett is built to play for another two or three years” and that’s fine. That’s encouraging! We all want Seattle to run out Lockett, JSN, and DK Metcalf for at least two years.

All I’ve been saying for the last five or six years with regularity is that the NFL—not me, the NFL!—has been phasing out almost all receivers once they hit 30, regardless of whether they are franchise legends, Pro Bowlers, superstars, or Hall of Famers. Did you notice that the most recent years at age 31, 32, and 33 are 2019 and 2016! Even at age 30, Lockett and Adams bucked a significant trend that was five or six years running.

I doubt any Falcons fans looked at Julio Jones, maybe the closest thing to a Hall of Famer of his generation, after his 99-catch/1,394-yard season at age 30 in 2019 and said, “Damn, that was the last time we’ll see good Julio!” Jones was on track for another big season in 2020 but injury essentially ended his career that year even if he’s unsuccessfully tried to keep it alive since then.

“The end” happens in an instant and is not something we can predict. The Seahawks needed some money and they only had three options via restructure: Lockett, Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams.

Seattle seems to have more faith in Lockett at 32, than they do with Diggs at 31 or Adams at 29. That is something I think we can all agree on.

We’ve been flirting with 500 paid subscribers for a few days now, who will be the lucky #500? Consider joining the Regular Joes club today! To bring back a term for my youth, there’s “hella” bonus content in the past, present, and future! This morning’s bonus article was the fifth of the month already and with an average of 50 articles per month, that’s basically paying .10 cents per Seaside Joe.

What’s the money for?

As fun as it is to fantasize about shopping, the Seahawks needed general cap space in order to add their rookie class. There’s nothing in the works here for a free agent or trade addition. I expect Seattle to work on an extension for Uchenna Nwosu to possibly create cap space, should they need it during training camp.

Noah Fant could also be a candidate depending on how they feel about Noah Fant.