Are Seahawks waiting on Tyler Lockett to take a pay cut?

Seahawks GM makes comments that imply to me that Tyler Lockett needs to re-do his contract or face release: 3/8/2024

In addition to Seahawks GM John Schneider telling the media on Thursday that the team is in negotiations with Leonard Williams about a new contract and that Seattle had to release players like Quandre Diggs because of their intent to be active in free agency next week, one of the most intriguing revelations is what he didn’t say: When asked if the Seahawks were done releasing players, Schneider didn’t say, “No.”

I know that part of the job of running an NFL team is to lack transparency when it comes to revealing your plans, but certainly there is no apparent downside to telling fans that the team is done cutting players for cap purposes. “No, we’ve done what we had to do, it’s over, put your fears at rest.”

It’s not like telling fans (and players and agents for players) that the franchise is happy to announce that the “bad news is over” could have negative consequences, but what Schneider said instead was “I hope to be done, yes. We hope to be done.”

The door to more cap casualties isn’t closed. It’s hopin’.

I don’t want to create an entire conversation and backstory that would solely serve to support the belief I’ve shared that the Seahawks will release Tyler Lockett based on Schneider’s five-word response, “We hope to be done.” But I honestly do not know many other ways that Schneider’s answer could be interpreted other than this:

a) The Seahawks ARE still deciding if another player(s) should be released (this seems indisputible based on JS’s answer)

b) If the Seahawks are still deciding then most likely that means that they aren’t entirely happy with a contract

c) If a team isn’t entirely happy with a contract, then they likely want the player to accept a pay cut

d) If the player will not accept a pay cut, then the team must either release, trade, or admit they were bluffing

Well, there are not very many players left on Seattle’s roster who this could apply to other than Tyler Lockett and he might be the only one up for debate. The team could release Julian Love to save $5.68 million (and a $5 million base salary) but by cutting their two starting safeties it would seem that he’s in a good position to stay. The team could cut Jarran Reed to save $4.87 million but that’s a bargain based on the season he just had. The team could cut Nick Bellore to save $2.85 million, but what would be the point of the delay? It’s such a small amount, they could have sent Bellore out with Mone.

There are only four players on the roster making a significant amount of money in 2024: Dre’Mont Jones has an $11 million base salary but is only entering year two of his contract and the team would lose money if they released him. He’s not going to accept a pay cut as there is no threat of him being released if he does. DK Metcalf has a $13 million base salary that is fully guaranteed, the team would not release Metcalf or ask him to take a pay cut. Geno Smith has a fully-guaranteed $12.7 million base salary and because Seattle let him reach his incentives and paid him a bonus, the team doesn’t have any leg to stand on for a pay cut because they can’t release him.

There is only one player who John Schneider could be talking about when he says that they “hope” to be done with player cuts and it is Tyler Lockett.

The Seahawks would save $7.1 million if they released or traded Lockett but I think the more significant number is $17 million: Lockett makes $17 million in 2024, including a $15.3 million non-guaranteed base salary and $1.7 million in per game roster bonuses. What that means is that Lockett will be paid $1 million in cold, hard cash for every game of the 2024 season. That is by far the most on the team.

Realtors in Washington State make an average of 5% commission, so Lockett would need to sell roughly 20 $1 million houses per week to make as much money as he will be paid by the Seattle Seahawks if he’s not released.

Lockett is being paid as if he’s the best player on the team when the reality is that he probably won’t even be one of the two most-important receivers in Seattle if he stays. Lockett’s $26.9 million cap hit is the eighth-highest in the NFL at his position next season and his $17 million cash paid ranks 17th among receivers. He will be paid as much as Davante Adams and more than the likes of D.J. Moore, DK Metcalf, and Brandon Aiyuk (until Aiyuk signs an extension).

Last season, Lockett led the team with 122 targets (Metcalf probably would have surpassed him but missed one game) but he only caught 79 passes for 894 yards and five touchdowns. His numbers went down in both 2022 and 2023 and at age 32, it is far more likely than not that his production is hitting an extinction level recession. Lockett’s 7.3 yards per target was tied for 76th in the NFL last season, his yards ranked 35th, yards per game ranked 46th, and his 64.8% catch rate ranked 124th.

It wouldn’t seem that there’s much hope for a rebound not only because of his age but due to the fact that the Seahawks aren’t likely to have a change at quarterback. There is a new offensive coordinator, but that could only do more to imply change is necessary.

On Friday, Broncos receiver Tim Patrick took a massive pay cut in order to avoid the easiest (second-easiest) decision of Denver’s offseason which would have been to release him instead. Patrick is 30 and he’s missed both of the last two seasons. The Broncos dropped his base salary from $9.5 million to the league minimum of $1.205 million, adding in some minor incentives to create $8 million in cap space.

It would seem to me that the last holdup in the Seahawks pre-free agency contract moves would be to come to an agreement with Lockett that keeps him in Seattle rather than do what seems necessary and releasing him to save $17 million in cash and over $7 million in salary.

What I assume would happen is that the Seahawks drop his base salary considerably lower than $15.3 million, convert some money into a signing bonus, which gives him a little bit more money upfront but leaves a more appropriate base salary and cap hit for 2024. Lockett would be incentivized to re-do his deal for several reasons, including the probability that he will be released anyway, that he will not have to uproot his life (and real estate business) from Seattle, and continue to have a role on the Seahawks as they move into the Mike Macdonald/Grubb era.

It benefits the Seahawks to keep Lockett because they will need to find a new Z receiver if they don’t keep him, they’ll have a veteran who won’t require as much attention to develop for this season as the team has a lot of work left to do, and I never said he wasn’t a good player. He’s just not as good as he once was and not nearly in the conversation for top-10 or top-20 at the position like he’s being paid. If the Seahawks do release Lockett and are forced into the market, they’ll have a significant number of affordable options on the free agent market and one of the deepest/most intriguing wide receiver classes in history through the draft.

I’ve seen some people talk about Schneider’s comment about being done releasing players as if he said that they probably were. I see it as a clear indication that they aren’t and that either a release or a new contract will be announced over the weekend. If I’m Lockett, I “hope” I’m wrong.