Will Seahawks extend Uchenna Nwosu prior to a Geno Smith franchise tag?
Seattle would be smart to invest in Nwosu prior to free agency: Seaside Joe 1460
I’ve been saying this a lot lately, but because the concept is parroted by so many others in Seahawks media, I have to repeat it one more time: How could the Seahawks afford this “perfect world plan” of giving Geno Smith the franchise tag and simultaneously drafting a top-10 quarterback, as Mel Kiper recently proposed?
That’s $32.4 million for Geno, $6.2 million for the fifth overall pick in 2023, and if that player is Anthony Richardson then Seattle should probably re-sign Drew Lock for $3.5 million or so to make sure that the Florida QB never sees the field as a rookie. As far as I know, not even AR believers are suggesting that he should play for an NFL team in 2023.
All totaled, the Seahawks would be spending over $42 million at the quarterback position in 2023 for that plan (19% of the salary cap) and I’m only estimating that Lock could cost that much. Maybe it’s more. Maybe Lock goes to the Buccaneers and Seattle has to pay $6 million for a backup quarterback. Thats $10-$12 million next season alone for the Seahawks backups at the position, which is more than they spent on Geno and Lock combined in 2022.
Even accounting $26 million in dead money for Russell Wilson last season, Seattle spent roughly $31 million in cap space at quarterback. The “franchise tag+draft” scenario is a bump of at least $8 million. Trading down from five to nine would only decrease the rookie salary cap hit to $4.2 million.
Of course, unlike others, we did a full breakdown of how the Seahawks—roughly $24.4 million in current 2023 cap space per OvertheCap.com—could even find the money for a QB franchise tag alone, not including a $6 million rookie backup, and the results were not pretty. It just does not add up with Geno and in my opinion, Pete Carroll and John Schneider have laid out hints that the Seahawks won’t tag him.
Consider that Washington has already tagged Da’Ron Payne, the Raiders are tagging Josh Jacobs, and Giants GM Joe Schoen has made it crystal clear that the organization will tag Daniel Jones if they aren’t able to reach an agreement by Tuesday’s deadline. If the Giants do re-sign Jones, New York is thought to be tagging Saquon Barkley.
So then why haven’t Pete and John said the same about Geno Smith? Not once have they said, “If we can’t make a deal, we still plan to keep him.”? The media has reported the same kinds of lip service quotes that Pete and John gave about Frank Clark four years ago—”He’s a Seahawk and we’ll figure it out somehow”—but nothing concrete and no explanation for how Seattle can even retain their own free agents, sign the 2023 draft class, and upgrade a porous defense with $35-$45 million being spent at quarterback.
Giving raises to Phil Haynes and Nick Bellore does not conveniently fit into the same plan as giving Geno Smith a salary 10 times what he made in 2022.
So then let’s say I’ve convinced all these people in the media who confoundingly are not subscribed to Seaside Joe that the franchise tag is a non-starter for Pete and John. Then they’ll give Geno one of the contract proposals that I and only I have attempted to adequately estimate based on real world numbers from the last couple of offseasons, right?
“Sign Geno Smith to a contract that is realistically only two years long, draft a QB at five, cut or trade Geno in 2024 to move onto the next era at quarterback. EASY!”
Yeah. Probably too easy, right?
It may be all too common these days to just expect that if you ask for a birthday party and 100 presents, someone will just show up and throw you a birthday party with 100 presents. Stop making up scenarios based on what makes sense for yourself or the Seahawks and try to put yourself in the shoes of Geno and agent Chafie Fields instead.
John: “So we think what works best is that we give Geno Smith a three-year, $100 million contract, but we’re gonna draft a quarterback and get the hell rid of Geno in 2024 if we can help it.”
Chafie: “Oh. Well. No?”
John: “I don’t….think you can say that?”
And even if Seattle does give Geno the type of contract that let’s say creates a manageable $15 million salary cap hit in 2023, then it would have to include a structure that essentially still guarantees him a wonderful and guaranteed base salary or roster bonus in 2024 that could bump that cap hit to $40 million or more. That’s the only way to convince Geno to sign a deal longer than one year because he needs to know that if he bets on himself and win that he can get a raise in 2024. That’s reasonable to assume, right?
Yes, the salary cap will go up and the Seahawks will have more room. But this plan still includes potentially $40 million for Geno and with the suggested draft double-down plan, about $8-$9 million for the rookie. That’s now $50 million being spent at the quarterback position in 2024, fully guaranteed for both quarterbacks, and essentially the entire proposal of “saving money on a rookie QB contract” is worthless because you’ve set it up so that someone like Anthony Richardson is now sitting for the first two years of a four-year deal with a fifth-year option.
It’s yet another article that I wrote recently, the disappearing value of rookie contract quarterbacks because all the good ones want their extensions after three years.
It all brings me back to square one: How can the Seahawks afford to keep Geno Smith and draft a quarterback that a) fits under Seattle’s salary cap, b) would appeal to Geno and Chafie Fields, and c) would make sense for the franchise quarterback you just drafted?
I’m sorry but this can’t be compared to Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes because that Smith wasn’t a pending free agent in 2017.
You are more than welcome to argue—as I have—that maybe the free agent market at quarterback isn’t what Geno expected. It’s certainly possible. Geno talks to other teams, sees that Seattle’s best offer actually is his best offer, and he comes back to the Seahawks after playing the field.
But if the franchise tag wasn’t difficult enough to justify already, then tagging Geno and drafting a quarterback with a top-10 pick takes this argument to a whole ‘nother level of HOW?
I want to get back to how the Seahawks can save money in the short run and set themselves up for a successful period in free agency because there’s something else there that I came to realize about Uchenna Nwosu. Before that, let me share a quick note that today is the end of FOUR STRAIGHT YEARS of Seaside Joe without missing a single day of the newsletter!
This week we hit 1,700 TOTAL subscribers, and our six biggest traffic days EVER have happened in the last two weeks alone.
There isn’t another person on Earth who has written more articles or more words about Pete Carroll’s Seahawks than I have and 1,460 straight days plus bonus content is a commitment that I make out of necessity—I can’t seem to turn “this” off, whatever it is inside of me that makes me obsess over the Seahawks like this—not necessarily because I’m anything special, but if you can help support Seaside Joe by upgrading and helping us get more subscribers, that means a lot.
If everyone who reads this sentence just recruits 1,000,000 other people to join Seaside Joe, we’ll be rich and famous.
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Don’t set a bad precedent with Uchenna Nwosu
The Seahawks have a good reputation with Pete Carroll for finding under-appreciated defensive talent and getting the most out of the players once they reach Seattle: Chris Clemons, Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, and most recently Nwosu.
In the cases of Avril and Bennett, Pete convinced them both to sign with the Seahawks in 2013 even though it was going to be a crowded edge room and maybe not enough snaps for everybody all the time, but because they felt they could still raise their stock by playing for him.
He was right: Avril signed for two years, Bennett for one, but both got lucrative extensions shortly thereafter.
This premise of “Come join us, we’ll make you better and get you paid, but you need to be willing to come cheap this year” is a great idea in theory. It only works if the Seahawks follow through by paying the players who they promise to pay. We saw how upset Bennett eventually got by feeling like Pete was taking advantage of him when the topic of his contract and salary came up.
“I signed for this low because you said I would be doing A, but now that I’m signed you have me doing A, B, and C. I should be paid more.”
I’m paraphrasing an idea.
Nwosu signed with the Seahawks on a deal that wasn’t bad by any means: $10.5 million guaranteed and he’ll get a salary raise from $1 million to $7.5 million this year. But he outplayed it, as he and Pete were hoping for, going from five sacks and 17 QB hits in 2021 to 9.5 sacks, 26 QB hits, and three forced fumbles in 2022.
He’s also positioned to argue that Seattle has no other great edge players and that they’ll want him around beyond next season. He’s right.
The Seahawks should extend Uchenna Nwosu and they should do it soon.
First, it proves that they’re good on their word for these two-year “prove it” deals with outside free agents. Nwosu wasn’t perfect by any means—outside of two games against the Rams, he wasn’t very productive in the last eight weeks—but he can say that he’s as valuable as Leonard Floyd, at least. Floyd has a four-year, $64 million contract with the Rams.
Turning around and giving Nwosu a lucrative contract extension shows to other free agents that if they give Seattle a “discount” now, and show out for Pete in 2023, that they will be rewarded. It will help bring better values to the Seahawks in free agency at a time when they desperately need defensive values to sign in Seattle.
Second, it lowers Nwosu’s 2023 cap hit. The Seahawks can bring down his 2023 base salary from $7.5 million to $1 million and with whatever signing bonus he gets, probably save $3-4 million against the cap. Money that they could use to sign the next Nwosu or yes, to keep Geno.
In addition to what I wrote about potentially restructuring Quandre Diggs or cutting Gabe Jackson if he won’t take a pay cut, these are the moves to chip away at the salary cap that the Seahawks need to make.
And third, it keeps a 27-year-old edge rusher coming off of his best season on the team for the foreseeable future. Nwosu can’t play anywhere else after 2023, the Seahawks should realize that by now. By getting this extension done before free agency, and potentially before the franchise tag deadline on Tuesday, it clears up “the books” as they’re setting up for their next series of moves.
I think the Seahawks will extend Uchenna Nwosu and it’s in their best interests to get it done soon.
Ken, you continue to impress with your realistic analization and clear presentation of some of the many complicated aspects of what the Hawks COULD or CAN do in their efforts of building and fielding a team to compete for the illusive Lombardy. Your dedication, hard work along with the consistency of providing it deserves far more recognition and rewards. From myself and I'm sure all your other subscriber's THANK YOU for all you do!
Happy Anniversary Ken!
Four years is a long time. In football world, a 4 year anniversary is celebrated with what? Silver Cleats? Wooden Helmet? Whatever it is, kudos to you.