Seahawks vs. Broncos: Does QB patience beat QB persistence?

Or, "Those Damn, Dumb Denver Broncos": Seaside Joe 1886

In Greek mythology, Sisyphus is the trickster who twice cheated death, so as a punishment he was condemned to an eternity of pushing a rock up a hill in Hades that would always end up rolling back to the bottom. That means that right at this moment and also a billion years from now, Sisyphus will always be doing something pointless. But he has competition for whose purpose at completing a task is more eternal and pointless: Him and the rock or the Denver Broncos and finding a franchise quarterback?

At least Sisyphus never had to manage an $85 million cap hit from Ares.

The Broncos also know what it is like to cheat death twice.

Born in 1960, the Broncos didn’t really have an identity over their first two decades of existence in the way that you might say the Packers did with Vince Lombardi or the Chiefs and Len Dawson. That changed in 1983, when Denver was coming off of a 2-7 season (strike) but that wasn’t bad enough to get the number one pick in a draft class that wouldn’t be rivaled in first round quarterback selections until last week: The ‘83 class had John Elway+5 other first round QBs and the ‘24 class had Caleb Williams+5 other first round QBs, but those two were obvious standouts as the quarterback most teams wanted a little bit more than the others.

Instead of picking first, the Broncos were fourth behind the Colts, Oilers, and Rams, and as most of you already know, Elway was adament that he would never play for Baltimore. So despite some pushback from those who said, “Well, I never!”, trade offers started pouring in for Colts owner Robert Irsay and GM Ernie Accorsi to see what they could get for 1983’s version of Caleb Williams: The 49ers, Raiders, Patriots, and Chargers were all rumored to be in the mix, but the Broncos were sitting at four and could pick the player who Baltimore wanted as a consolation, that prospect being tackle Chris Hinton.

98 or 99 percent of the time, John Elway would simply go play for the Baltimore Colts and there wouldn’t be any additional story to it. That’s what would happen just as Caleb Williams is now playing for arguably the worst franchise in the NFL at developing quarterbacks instead of forcing his way onto the New England Patriots or Minnesota Vikings. Because of something completely out of their control, the Broncos were able to trade Hinton and a future first round pick for Elway and he helped lead Denver to five Super Bowls and two championships.

Were it not for the Colts’ obvious ineptitude, proven to be a good move for Elway when the team parted ways with Accorsi and moved to Indianapolis in 1984, the Broncos might have had at least two more decades of irrelevance.

That was the first trick that got Denver temporarily out of Hades and the second verse was almost the same as the first: The Colts have always proven to have the best timing for being the worst team in the NFL, falling backwards into Peyton Manning in the 1998 draft instead of being a fraction better the previous season and having to choose Ryan Leaf. Manning saved Indianapolis from probably having to move again if they continued to be as helpless as they were in the 80s and 90s, making the Colts the second-best team in the AFC in the 2000s.

Until almost 30 years after Elway, Indianapolis’s bad fortune-turned-good-Luck ended up allowing Manning to become the best free agent of all-time in 2012. And when I say “best”, I mean that before Manning and until Tom Brady in 2020, top-10 all-time players don’t usually become available while they’ve still got that all-time juice left in the tank. Were it not for Manning’s neck injury that forced him to miss all of 2011, the Colts would have never let him out of Indianapolis. Never.

But because the Colts were unsure of his health and once again had the number one pick in a class with a generational quarterback prospect, Indy let Peyton Manning leave without a franchise tag or a fight. The Seahawks (who coincidentally traded up to the third pick in 1983 for Curt Warner so could have been in position to trade for Elway, who wanted to be on the west coast, but ironically had a good feeling about Dave Krieg after he had willed Seattle to victory in 1982’s finale over the Broncos) were also interested in signing Manning in 2012, but couldn’t convince him to get on their plane.

Between Elway’s retirement in 1999 and Tim Tebow’s last stand in 2011, the Broncos were back to being a pathetic mess at quarterback until they got the backdoor free agency win of the century in 2012. In fact, we know that the Broncos are so sure of their ineptitude at drafting quarterbacks that it’s what always motivates Denver to push so hard for good ones when they become surprisingly available whether that’s Elway, Manning, or Russell Wilson.

Signing Manning gave the Broncos a ticket to two more Super Bowls, one that they won and I think one that they got…if I read this correctly…They got their “asses handed to them”???…but since his retirement in 2016 the Broncos have been in the running as the worst team in the NFL: Eight seasons, zero playoff appearances, four last place finishes, six different head coaches, and 12 different starting quarterbacks.

That number is likely to hit 13 this year after the team drafted Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th pick, probably 20-40 spots higher than anyone imagined he would go, and not many predict he will be as successful as 1983’s sixth first round quarterback…Dan Marino. Probably not that, but I guess we won’t know until we know.

So far this sounds like a story about the Denver Broncos, but the Seattle Seahawks were in position to draft Chris Hinton and trade him to the Colts with a future first round pick. The Seahawks thought they were on track to fly Peyton Manning to Seattle in 2012, which would have turned the fates of two franchises, as well as the history of the Super Bowl from at least 2012 to 2015. And the Seahawks could have said “screw it” on Thursday, called the Jets, and traded up to 10 for their pick of J.J. McCarthy or Nix.

But these franchises sit on opposite ends of the quarterback acquisition spectrum: The Broncos, who to their credit have won three Super Bowls by being aggressive for Elway and Manning, keep firing shots at quarterback and missing. The Seahawks, who to their credit have been to three Super Bowls since 2005 and won one, have spent two first round picks on quarterbacks in their entire HISTORY of existence.

Denver used the 12th overall pick on a quarterback, the fourth first round pick that the team has spent on the position since 2016 alone, whereas Seattle feels that they got a better prospect by swapping picks with Washington to acquire Sam Howell. Who will win and who is right?

The differences between the Broncos and Seahawks on quarterback philosophy are drastic and that’s what we’re going to look at today: A comparison between the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos in terms of draft assets and financial resources spent to address the quarterback position.

And here’s a preview: Since 2010, the Broncos have spent five first round and four second round picks on the quarterback position. The Seahawks haven’t spent one—not a single one—first or second round pick on a quarterback since Rick Mirer in 1993. In fact, with the Russell Wilson trade included, the Seahawks actually have a SURPLUS of two first and two second round picks on the quarterback position.

Buckle up…It’s gonna be a Rocky road.

Broncos expenditures on QB since 2012:

2012: Peyton Manning, free agency, 5-year, $96 million contract

2012: Brock Osweiler, draft, 2.57

2013: Zac Dysert, draft, 7.234

2015: Trevor Siemian, draft, 7.250

2016: Paxton Lynch, draft, 1.26 (traded pick 3.94 to Seahawks to move up)

2016: Mark Sanchez, trade, conditional 2017 seventh (not met)

2017: Brock Osweiler, free agency

2018: Case Keenum, free agency, 2-year, $36 million contract

2019: Joe Flacco, trade, 4th round pick ($18.5m salary)

2019: Drew Lock, draft, 2.42 (traded picks 4.125, 6.182 to move up)

2021: Teddy Bridgewater, trade, 6th round pick ($4.4m cap hit)

2022: Russell Wilson, trade, 2022/2023 first round picks (9th, 5th overall), 2022/2023 second round picks (40th, 37th overall), a 4th/5th pick swap, Lock, Noah Fant (Denver’s 2019 first round pick), and Shelby Harris, plus Wilson signed a 5-year, $245 million contract

2023: Sean Payton (QB whisperer), trade, 2023 first round pick and 2024 2nd/3rd pick swap

2023: Jarrett Stidham, free agency, 2-year, $10 million contract

2024: Bo Nix, draft, 12th overall pick

Soak everything in because I know that was a lot for only 13 years and this doesn’t go as far back as picking Tim Tebow in the first round of the 2010 draft and trading up for him.

Two QBs were drafted in the first round (Lynch, Nix), two QBs were drafted in the second round (Osweiler, Lock), two first round picks were traded for Wilson, two second round picks were traded for Wilson, one former first round pick and one former second round pick were also traded for Wilson, one first round pick and a second was traded for Sean Payton and a third strictly because of his past success with quarterbacks, the Broncos handed out record-breaking contracts in 2012 and 2022, plus burning cash on the likes of Keenum, Flacco, and Bridgewater.

Were it not for Manning and one very weird 8-8 season with Tebow, we’d probably be talking about the Broncos as a franchise that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2005.

This is every draft pick, trade, and notable contract for the Broncos since 2012. Keep this list and the length of it in mind as you look at Seattle’s recent history at the position.

Seahawks expenditures on QB since 2012:

2012: Matt Flynn, free agent, 3-years, $19.5 million

2012: Russell Wilson, draft, 3.75

2013: Tarvaris Jackson, free agent returnee, 1-year, $850k

2016: Trevone Boykin, draft, undrafted free agent

2017: Austin Davis, free agent, $855k

2018: Alex McGough, draft, 7.220

2018: Brett Hundley, trade, 2019 6th round pick

2019: Paxton Lynch, free agent

2019: Geno Smith, free agent

2022: Drew Lock, trade, acquired in Russell Wilson deal

2022: Geno Smith, free agent returnee, 1-year, $3.5-$7 million

2023: Geno Smith, extension, 3-year, $75 million

2024: Sam Howell, trade, 3rd+5th to Moons for 4th+6th

By the way it looks now, it seems like Seattle’s list isn’t that much shorter than Denver’s, but I was forced to scratch and claw for transactions that have almost no relevance like Boykin, Davis, Hundley, Lynch, and Geno prior to his 2022-2023 deals. Not only did the Seahawks bring back Tarvaris for cheap, they even got a seventh round pick for him one year earlier in a trade with the Bills.

Seattle’s bargain shopping netted them Russell Wilson, who is easily better than any quarterback EVER DRAFTED BY THE BRONCOS, and Geno Smith, who is easily better than any attempt Denver has made at quarterback since Manning’s retirement.

In the question of “Who is winning the quarterback race?”, there is nothing if not a clear answer. It’s the Seahawks. Not only is it the Seahawks, but Seattle has directly benefited from the Broncos’ overexuberance to improve at the position multiple times since 2016.

The incredibly wide gap between Seattle and Denver

Of course, the Seahawks did spend a lot of money on the quarterback position after Wilson’s rookie deal was up for negotiation including extensions in 2015 ($22m per season) and 2019 ($35m per season), in addition to the dead money that Seattle had to eat in 2022. But if you look at this way, the Seahawks paid Russell Wilson a total of $181.3 million over 10 seasons of service, according to OvertheCap, and $155.3 million against the cap.

The Broncos had Russell Wilson for less than two seasons and they will end up paying him $85 million.

The Seahawks paid Wilson $181 million for 10 good years so the net value is very much a positive for Seattle. The Broncos paid Lynch a first round contract and he never started for them, they paid Keenum $25 million guaranteed and let him go after one season, they traded for Flacco’s $18 million base salary and benched him for Lock, they traded for Bridgewater and benched Lock for him, only to feel so trapped that they made a trade that some call the worst move in NFL history.

Then after trading for and paying Payton a reported $18 million per season to “fix” Wilson, the Broncos instead ate $85 million and drafted the sixth-ranked quarterback with the 12th overall pick.

Who is better now?

Despite the Seahawks dominating this particular showdown, what are we really left with since Seattle’s inaugural season in 1976?

I don’t know of any stories involving the Seahawks reasons for pursuing or not pursuing Elway in 1983 despite his intentions to play on the west coast, his Washington roots, and Seattle’s available resources to make a trade if they wanted to block him from going to their AFC West rivals.

Who among us that have walked the streets of Pullman, Washington hasn’t seen Elway’s name there? Elway’s father was an assistant coach at Washington State for a brief time, nearly putting him in position to be a Coug if not for his dad accepting a job at Cal-State Northridge when John was a high school sophomore.

There’s nothing negative to say about Dave Krieg, one of the top quarterbacks of the 80s, yet let’s not be foolish about who is better and what the alternative universe would look like given Elway’s five Super Bowl appearances between 1986 and 1998.

Denver’s aggressiveness has led to seven Super Bowl appearances in the past 38 years. Seattle’s passiveness has saved money and surely a lot of bad draft picks and contracts but they’ve only had three Super Bowl appearances in franchise history. Does one fact lead to the other? Not directly, no. Making the Super Bowl is about more than just what moves you make at quarterback.

But if were observing an objective debate between a Broncos expert and a Seahawks expert on “Who did it better?”, Denver’s side would point to championships and Seattle’s side would point to consistency, value, and fleecing the other team in a one-sided trade that in theory should give the Seahawks a much better roster as of April 30, 2024.

Yet, both the Seahawks and Broncos sucked last season with bad defenses and inconsistent offenses. Would the average fan rather be in Denver’s position with Payton having a new first round quarterback to develop or Seattle’s position to be paying Geno Smith $26 million without a real commitment beyond next season and Howell in the background?

I think for us, the unobjective, the Seahawks are better off.

For outsiders to both situations, the hope that comes with a first round draft pick (regardless of the evidence against it that you see above) might convince them to side with the Broncos because not many see Geno or Howell as “Super Bowl” quarterbacks. Can we really blame them? The Broncos have only ever been to the Super Bowl with Elway or Manning. The Seahawks went to the Super Bowl with Matt Hasselbeck and Wilson, but do they have either the best offensive line of the century or the best defense of the century?

Despite their mistakes, the Broncos are also set to have approximately $70 million in cap space next year and Seattle isn’t going to have any cap space in 2025 until they make cuts or trades. But the Seahawks are building around Charles Cross, Devon Witherspoon, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Byron Murphy, Boye Mafe, Derick Hall, Kenneth Walker, and Zach Charbonnet thanks to first and second round draft picks since 2022, both the ones that they earned from the league and ones that they acquired from Denver out of desperation.

If Bo Nix has a really good rookie season, the perspective of the Broncos and their willingness to throw almost everything at one position will change again. If the Seahawks simultanously struggle due to limitations at quarterback, some will question John Schneider’s willingness to sit back and wait for another miracle to fall in his lap over these past three offseasons.

But if Bo Nix is anything like Denver’s last seven or eight attempts to just throw a first round pick at the problem (we didn’t even get into Tommy Maddox or Jay Cutler), then Schneider has nothing to worry about. The Broncos rock will just keep rolling back down the 14,440 feet of Rocky Mountain aggro crag.

Seaside Joe Giveaway: Off without a hitch!

The “W” glasses giveaway was a huge success and it taught me that Seaside Joe enjoys giving stuff away more than he loves to receive things. In addition to Seaside Jay’s amazing work on the shades, she had a great idea to add a glasses case for them plus a Seahawks care package that includes stickers, a tote bag, and a team logo decal. But I’m calling this merely a “trial run” or “test run” at the start of a journey to keep making better and better Seaside Joe care packages to come in the future. This is only the first of what’s to come so if you didn’t win this time, fear not because all I wanna do is keep spending the money made here to buy and make stuff to give back to YOU.

Here is the legendary Shaymus McFamous showing off his new Seaside Swag Bag:

“Wow! I just thought I was getting some cool Seaside Jay bedazzled shades. But, it was the bonus plan! Thank you so much for the handwritten note, drawstring bag, and sticker and decal, too! Also, the sunglasses case was an unexpected nice touch. Please pass on my sincerest appreciation to SSJay and give Clark a belly scratch for me! - Shaymus”

Thank YOU Shaymus and everyone else who is here in the community either as a free subscriber, Regular Joe, or Super Joes member. I am already starting to compile the next pile of Seahawks/Seaside Joe swag as we speak!

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