What is the most unfair win probability on Seahawks schedule?

Seahawks have 60% odds to start 2-0, but then the schedule gets difficult: Seaside Joe 1931

According to Sumer Sports, a “cutting-edge analytics site powered by NFL expertise and A.I.” (‘powered by A.I.’? What is this, 2023?!?!), the Seattle Seahawks are basically a boom-or-bust team that isn’t the most exciting to watch, but also isn’t a total time suck like intentionally and unironically binge-watching HBO’s The Last of Us.

Although to be fair, I was more frustrated by the Seahawks in 2023 than I was by Pedro Pascal.

If Sumer Sports’ win probability projections proved accurate, then the Seahawks will finish 5-12 and that’s going to be especially frustrating after Week 2 because Seattle has greater than 60% odds to win each of their first two games. (I know that if you’re favored 60% to win each game, then the probability of winning both games is lower than that, but I couldn’t calculate the actual math there.)

The Seahawks are underdogs in 7 of their next 8 games and other than being favored to beat the Giants in Week 5, Seattle is no better than 42.5% in any contest.

Is that fair?

Which example of the Seahawks being underdogs is most unfair?

Now, no need to yell at the television set that “THE GAMES AREN’T PLAYED IN JUNE!” I mean, it’s okay to yell but definitely direct that anger at anyone who thinks that it matters to be underdogs at any point before a game, but especially three months ahead of time. However, my brother has always told me that “you can learn something from everybody you meet” and I think that can apply to analytics too.

We don’t need to “care” about Seattle’s win probabilities months down the road, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to be learned.

Like why are the Seahawks—a team that has beaten the Lions in each of the past three years—such massive underdogs to Detroit in Week 4? And why is the “Watchability Score” for that game only a 5.55 out of 10 when every single meeting between the two franchises has been a highlight of each of the past three seasons?

That’s what we’re getting to the bottom of in Friday’s Seaside Joe.

Week 1 - vs. Denver Broncos, 1:05

Win Prob: 64.8%

Watchability Score: 1.55

This is what the probability page looks like at Sumer Sports and as you can see, Seattle is about 65% to beat the Broncos in Week 1. This is easily the Seahawks best odds to win a game all season. And when you click the “Preview Matchup” button, you get more information for each team, part of which looks like this:

As you can see, the Seahawks were 10th in offense and 30th on defense in 2023 based on “Estimated Points Added” per play. To what degree Sumer or any website can project how Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb will change Seattle is impossible to calculate (much harder than winning two 60% games) and this is why we don’t need to put emotional stock into the numbers. It’s their job to come up with numbers, I can’t fault people for trying to create NFL stats websites. I encourage them to keep trying.

The other standout number here is 1.55: That’s the lowest “Watchability Score” for a Seahawks game all season long and there’s no other game that comes close. By comparison, Ravens-Chiefs has a watchability score of 9.56 and I don’t need to know what the number means to understand why it looks fair.

Do you think that Broncos-Seahawks will be the most boring game of the season even though it’s the season premiere?

Week 2 - at New England Patriots, 10:00

Win Prob: 59.3%

Watchability: 4.05

The Seahawks could face rookie quarterbacks in each of their first two games, with Bo Nix probable to start for Denver in Week 1 and Drake Maye unlikely to start for the Patriots in Week 2. Unlikely, but not impossible. Remember when the Chargers were going to sit Justin Herbert behind Tyrod Taylor and then minutes before their Week 2 game, someone on L.A.’s staff stabbed Taylor (with a needle) and Herbert never looked back?

The Patriots are my lowest-ranked team in the NFL at the moment and for that reason I can’t see Jacoby Brissett starting for very long, but he should still be in line to start in Week 2.

Week 3 - vs. Miami Dolphins, 1:05

Win Prob: 42.5%

Watchability: 7.9

This is considered the third-most entertaining game on Seattle’s schedule and every time I dig more into Ryan Grubb’s offense, it becomes easier to understand why: Grubb and Mike McDaniel are two of the most intriguing offensive play callers in the NFL now. I think the Dolphins are a house of cards with too many players that seem to have injury issues or are past their prime, so this isn’t one I would be surprised to see the Seahawks win.

Week 4 - at Detroit Lions, 5:15 (MNF)

Win Prob: 30.6%

Watchability: 5.55

The aforementioned Lions game. Don’t get me wrong, I think that the Lions could get to the Super Bowl this year and they’re very well setup for the near future, but 30% seems to be overlooking the fact that the Seahawks went to Detroit last year and won that game in overtime in front of a stunned crowd. A 5.55 watchability score also makes no sense, the Seahawks and Lions average about 90 points per game when they play each other.

Week 5 - vs. NY Giants, 1:25

Win Prob: 61.5%

Watchability: 2.9

Sure, I’ll buy it.

Week 6 - vs. SF 49ers, 5:15 (TNF)

Win Prob: 35.8%

Watchability: 7.77

I’m not afraid to say that both numbers could be too high. Once riding a very long win streak against the 49ers, Seattle has lost five in a row and none of the games were very easy to watch. This will be the first opportunity of the season for Geno Smith to prove he’s not intimidated by the 49ers and for Macdonald to show how his defense will do a better job against Kyle Shanahan than Pete Carroll’s.

Week 7 - at Atlanta Falcons, 1:00

Win Prob: 38.5%

Watchability: 5.26

I can’t say that I totally agree with people that the Falcons are good now because of Raheem Morris and Kirk Cousins.

Week 8 - vs. Buffalo Bills, 1:05

Win Prob: 42.5%

Watchability: 8.87

I would think that all of Josh Allen’s games deserve a Watchability score over 8.00, which is also why I believe that getting a uniquely talented top-4 quarterback is important to keep in the back of your mind if the team you like doesn’t have one. It’s not as though it’s easy to do—if it were easy, it wouldn’t be valuable—but I’m still a believer in the Bills just because of Josh Allen. He might actually be better without Stefon Diggs.

I don’t take issue with either number, it would be a great statement by Macdonald to beat the Bills at home in the middle of the season.

Week 9 - vs. Los Angeles Rams, 1:25

Win Prob: 44.2%

Watchability: 6.75

The first time playing the Rams without Aaron Donald anywhere on roster (inactive or otherwise) since 2013.

Week 11 - at SF 49ers, 1:05

Win Prob: 22.4%

Watchability: 5.6

The lowest win probability of the season. Still, this is almost certainly going to get better as we get closer to the actual game unless the Seahawks actually do lose all the games they’re projected to lose.

Week 12 - vs. AZ Cardinals, 1:25

Win Prob: 59.8%

Watchability: 4.36

As much as we want to say that playing the Cardinals twice in three weeks is a late season gift, Seahawks fans know how foolish it would be to count a “W” in Arizona.

Week 13 - at NY Jets, 10:00

Win Prob: 35.2%

Watchability: 3.24

I’m surprised that Geno vs. the Jets and Aaron Rodgers vs. anyone would get a watchability score of 3.24. Unless those aren’t the QBs they’re projecting for late in the year.

Week 14 - at AZ Cardinals, 1:05

Win Prob: 47.1%

Watchability: 5.99

More Cardinals…

Week 15 - vs. GB Packers, 5:20 (SNF)

Win Prob: 45.9%

Watchability: 8.3

Despite a Watchability score over 8.00, the Seahawks and Packers need to claw and scratch for respectability over the first 14 weeks to not be flexed out of this spot on Sunday Night Football. It seems like Green Bay will always be a draw, especially if Jordan Love continues to play as he did in the second half of 2023, but will both teams be the playoff hunt?

Week 16 - vs. Minnesota Vikings, 1:05

Win Prob: 56.4%

Watchability: 5.56

A late-season win??? Personally, I don’t see a rebound season coming for the Vikings this year and they can only hope that J.J. McCarthy turns out better than Caleb Williams.

Week 17 - at Chicago Bears, 5:15 (TNF)

Win Prob: 38.5%

Watchability: 3.74

The Bears can only hope that Caleb Williams turns out better than every quarterback in Bears history.

But 38.5% to beat the Bears? I guess playing in Chicago in December on a short week isn’t totally forgiving.

Week 18 - at L.A. Rams, TBD

Win Prob: 32.1%

Watchability: 3.37

In the eyes of analytics and even old school football fans, there’s not much hope for the Seahawks against the Rams until the Seahawks prove they can beat the Rams. And Macdonald’s worst game as a defensive coordinator last season came against McVay. But not only will a lot change between Week 1 and Week 18, a lot will change between today and the first day of training camp, and between then and Week 1, so this is just a preview of a preview.

Did you find it to be a fair preview? Let’s find out:

I’m only allowed 5 options, so if you think that a different answer was better, let me know in the comments:

What about the most and least watchable games?

Finally…

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