What's the best stat?

Seaside Joe shares some news and answers your questions: Seaside Joe 1983

When the Seaside Joe newsletter started on March 4, 2019, without a day gone by since then without at least one Seahawks article posted here for subscribers, I was obviously a much different person. Not only because that was 5.5 years ago, but back then I wasn’t even the type of person to have a list of non-negotiable daily habits. It just sort of worked out that way and a lot has changed not only in my life, but in all of our lives since the most recent day that went by without at least one Seaside Joe daily newsletter.

When the newsletter started, I had a different job, I obviously wasn’t obsessed with writing a Seaside Joe everyday yet, and the world was still a year away from a global pandemic. When this newsletter started, Frank Clark was about to be traded to the Chiefs, “Let Russ Cook” wouldn’t happen for another year and a half, and the Seahawks hadn’t drafted DK Metcalf yet.

I was also a single man when this newsletter started, but this week Seaside Jay and I will be getting married.

I’m a fairly closed off person in general, so I have an urge to keep this private. I really like to stick to the Seahawks around here. However, many of us have been in each other’s lives on literally a daily basis for the last 5.5 years, so I felt like it would be unfair to not share that as a plot point in the Seaside Joe story arc. I also just think that’s kind of amazing, to say that since the last day that this newsletter did not get out, I’ve gone from single to meeting the absolute right person and getting married.

And don’t worry, I will still be posting Seaside Joe on our wedding day. Seaside Jay, a loyal subscriber herself, wouldn’t have it any other way.

(These may or may not be words I’m putting in her mouth.)

I want to say a pre-emptive “Thank you!” to the congratulative wishes and I’m grateful that all of us here have gone through our own changes, developments, and major life milestones in the last five and a half years together. This is just one of mine, but I’d love to hear about yours as well!

Certainly we are registered at “Subscribe to Seaside Joe and tell Seahawks fans about us!”

It is a perfect day then to kick it over to some of Seaside Joe’s longtime subscribers and biggest fans, the Super Joes, for the latest edition of the Super Joes Q and A. This is where Super Joes founding members send me questions every other week about the Seahawks (maybe every week when the regular season starts?) and I answer them.

If you want to upgrade from Regular Joes to Super Joes for a prorated annual rate, you can do that here, and you will be included on the next Q and A!

Scott M: I would love to hear your take on what stats are actually meaningful. Some stats are just raw figures and need context, while other stats don't provide any relationship or relative factor and therefore don't prove to be truly what they seem. Do you have any stats that are key to determining success at the NFL level that you prefer?

I love this question and I’m also going to start answering it by diverting a little bit to talk about Pete Carroll and what I would call a misconception about how important stats are to everybody in the NFL, not just “analytics” fans.

On the new version of the All Day podcast, former Seahawks linebacker and 2015-2016 assistant linebackers coach Lofa Tatupu talked about what it’s like in the headset during games, specifically citing Pete Carroll asking for stats as his example when he was mimicking the experience.

“Sometimes Pete would still be on the defense (channel) and say “Tater, can you give me the stats on third and”—you know like he wanted it in real time.”

Tatupu wasn’t really talking about how Pete used stats during games, I just thought it was interesting that when he went to do a Pete-on-the-mic impression the first thing that came to mind was Pete asking for stats in order to make an informed decision and this would have been in the first half of Pete’s Seahawks career. Given that the narrative about Pete is that “he’s too old school, he hates using statistics to make decisions”, it’s telling that of course the head coach leaned on situational stats during games.

And Pete would also use stats when deciding which free agents to target, which players to draft, which Seahawks to retain, trade, bench, or start.

I think a lot of people on Twitter or certain NFL websites, shows, content took it upon themselves to believe without evidence that because Pete didn’t always do what analytics “said to do”, that it must mean Pete didn’t use analytics or stats. I think instead Pete just used statistics and analytics WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THE GAME HE WAS COACHING, which is what a good coach should do.

This random LinkedIn post by a fan after the Super Bowl loss in 2015 titled ‘Pete needs a data guy, better respect for stats, or a puppy’ may not come from a professional source, but does encapsulate what I mean:

“We hate to Monday morning coach, but Pete Carroll and his offensive coaching staff gives the best argument for the fact that you can only fly in the face of data for so long before probabilities catch up to you.”

Me paraphrasing: “He must not be as smart as us, because we’re so smart that we would only do what a computer model would tell us to do.”

Pete even cited stats in his press conference before facing the Patriots that year:

They have been a fantastic team. I'll give you a stat that's crucial. Since 2012, they're plus-51 in the turnover ratio and we're plus-51 in the turnover ratio. The next team is plus-28, whoever it is.

Sure, it’s not EPA or DVOA or other stats heavily predicated on yards, touchdowns, and turnovers, but I think even the most old school coaches are keenly aware of stats, analytics, and abiding by the philosophy that if you’re going to make the wrong decision, at least make the right wrong decision.

When I started writing about the Seahawks, I really wanted to be “the stats guy” because I had long been fascinated with the impact that FanGraphs and advanced stats sites like it had on baseball during the aughts. Could analytics ever work that well in football? In my opinion, no. But I think because some people have staked their careers on analytics in football, there’s this ongoing war between “film” and “stats” that almost exclusively exists on Twitter and doesn’t actually exist within NFL and NCAA circles. I essentially stopped wanting to be “a stats guy” when I found out the faces of the analytics crowd were completely athithetical to my own belief systems.

In the NFL, teams are using stats to confirm what they see on film. Or using film to confirm that stats are never enough information to determine if a player or a unit is “good” or “bad”. It has to be a combination of the two, but most people who know how to create stats don’t know how to watch film and most people who watch film for a living probably couldn’t explain how to calculate DVOA or QBR or even passer rating.

(Passer rating’s calculation formula is outdated and has always been absurd.)

I don’t think there’s any high school, college, or pro coach who doesn’t use stats all the time. As far as which ones are useful, I’m sure that’s the question that would separate those coaches into different teams, just as they are separated between different offensive and defensive philosophies and schemes and teaching styles.

For me, I can’t pick any stats that I like more than others. I would only say that I’m open to hearing about any stat, but stats should be treated like doors instead of like rooms. When I hear “Geno Smith leads the NFL in completion percentage”, that should not be the destination, it should be a gateway towards people finding out why Geno leads the NFL in completion percentage and here’s what I think is the most important part:

That person being open to the possibility that Geno Smith leading the NFL in completion percentage could be meaningless, or at least a lot less meaningful than the stat alone would indicate.

I don’t mean to pick on Geno for the purposes of this article, but I bet quarterback stats probably account for at least 50% of all the stats we will ever share, read, or hear about in our lifetimes. And a high completion percentage is something all coaches want from their quarterbacks, but that’s also why coaches have become so adept at creating passing systems that foster an enviroment for not-elite QBs to have a high completion percentage. When Geno led the NFL in completion percentage in 2022 (69.8%), Daniel Jones and Jimmy Garopppolo were tied for fifth (67.2%), and Andy Dalton’s 66.7% was much better than Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson’s rates.

We can use completion percentage as a gateway to asking about a quarterback’s average depth of target (is he, like Cam Newton once, just chucking every pass to Christian McCaffrey within 5 yards?), his heat map all over the field, his average time to throw, or any number of stats that provide more context to that other stat. All stats must be used in combination, there’s no one “best” stat for quarterbacks or receivers or anyone else.

I just think we have to use stats to open doors, not to make decisions.

Joshular: Who do you think will be the biggest surprise (positive or negative) coming out of training camp?

I’ll go through some players that could come out of camp with a positive or negative surprise.

Tyler Lockett - I don’t know if an opinion about Lockett’s camp to this point has been formed at all, I’m sure people are just more focused on newer players, but nobody seems to talk about him and I’d at least like some clarity on his role at age 32 (in September) because the Seahawks do have promising young receivers that would seem “blocked” right now. It’s not just Jake Bobo, those watching practices have also talked about Easop Winston, Laviska Shenault, Cody White, and even Dee Eskridge this year.

None of those players are going to take Lockett’s job, but it’s just a fact that teams don’t have enough targets to go around for fourth wide receivers to be significantly involved.

There are other receivers at basically the same age as Lockett, but Adam Thielen is the only one in the league right now who is older. Since Lockett won’t appear in any preseason games, will fans get any additional clarity on how he looks in camp? The Seahawks don’t have a better example of veteran leadership and a shortcut for some of these recently-drafted offensive players to learn the ropes is to take notes from Tyler Lockett.

But I still think it’s perfectly fair for us to want to know the answer to the question, “How does he look in camp this year compared to past years?”

Christian Haynes - It wouldn’t be concerning if he didn’t win the starting job at right guard, but I would not be surprised if he was the starting right guard in Week 1.

Derick Hall - On Friday, Hall told Wyman & Bob that he was disappointed by his rookie season but that in reality the year went better than how he felt it did because he was able to learn from his mistakes. Hall expects to be dominant against the run by setting the edge and to improve his pass rushing skills, I think he could come out of camp as a de facto starter.

Dre’Mont Jones - Between the changes that the Seahawks made on the coaching staff and the defensive linemen that they’ve brought in or committed to this offseason (Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy, Johnathan Hankins), I think Mike Macdonald will have to consider parting with veterans that the last regime felt were starters. Ultimately, 2024 is going to be an audition for almost everybody to keep their jobs in 2025 and some players, maybe including Jones, could be gone before then.

With Jones sitting out of camp with a hamstring injury, it only weakens his case to play over other options and Seattle has some intriguing other options.

Rusty: As fans, we all have our own neuroses in regard to the Seahawks. We all have a few things we may or may not freak out about if they happened. But you do a good job of getting us to calm down. What one thing or two, that if it happened, would cause you to freak out about the team.

For me, it would be learning Jeff Bezos is buying the team. I just don’t think he cares about Seattle. He just wants to own a team, because Elon doesn’t own one.

I don’t have any comments about Jeff Bezos, but certainly who owns a team is super important. I don’t worry about the sale of the Seahawks, even though it is imminent, because nobody has any idea when that’s going to happen. You can’t make an educated guess. You can’t assume. It could be underway behind closed doors right now or not happen for another ten years. That’s just not something that I’m going to burn my thoughts on when I may not even be alive when it happens.

Freaking out is not my wheelhouse. There were a couple of times when I worried that technical difficulties of which I had no control over would cause Seaside Joe to not be delivered that day, and that caused me to freak out. That’s maybe the only thing that makes me freak out: The streak ending because of something I had no control over.

The Seahawks have failed to win the Super Bowl in 48 of 49 tries. Why freak out over something happening that could cause the Seahawks to not win the Super Bowl when 96% of the time the Seahawks do not win the Super Bowl anyway?

I love this newsletter and I’m a big fan of the Seahawks and the NFL, but we’ve seen the team at the bottom and we’ve seen the team at the top. For as long as the Seahawks continue to be a team in the NFL, for as long as the NFL continues to be the dominant professional football league, forces outside of our control will continue to pull the franchise in all directions. I consider myself an interested observer of that gravitational rotation and outside of that, I plan to stay entertained at all times regardless, therefore no time to “freak out”.