Will lost season help Seahawks find their way?

How the Seahawks can beat the 49ers via Vision Board

This article by Seaside Joe (a family-first Seahawks newsletter business) highlighted some changes that head coach Mike Macdonald has to make to the starting lineup as the backwash to Seattle’s slump slurp. In the 10 days since that post, three of those backups have been elevated:

• Olu Oluwatimi has replaced Connor Williams (retired) at center

• Tyrice Knight has replaced Tyrel Dodson (released) at linebacker

• Josh Jobe has been signed to the 53-man roster

A fourth, A.J. Barner, should start this weekend as Noah Fant sidelined with a groin injury and he may not have a job to come back to when he’s healthy. Should the Seahawks lose to the 49ers on Sunday, days are also numbered for Laken Tomlinson, Dre’Mont Jones, and he whose name envokes too much controversy.

It feels strange to talk about Seattle’s playoff hopes potentially being over in November, but that’s only because the Seahawks haven’t had to trudge through a lost season in a long time.

The Seahawks probably can’t recover from losing five of their last six, but they definitely won’t emerge from the ashes of being 0-4 against the NFC West if they lose to the 49ers again. And then the only names that won’t be on the chopping block are those that coaches know will be here in 2025.

Vision Board: Seahawks-49ers

Outwit: Stop the 49ers on the ground

The biggest mismatch of the game will be San Francisco’s ground attack (4th in rushing yards, 3rd in yards per carry, second in success rate*) against Seattle’s struggles against the run (26th in yards, 26th in yards per carry, 27th in runs deemed not successful) and Christian McCaffrey already had a warm-up game: The 2023 Offensive Player of the Year had 107 yards last week, although he was just 13 for 39 (3 YPC) on the ground.

*Next Gen Stats defines success rate as “plays that keep the offense on schedule”, meaning the run picked up at least the necessary amount of yards based on down, distance, and situation.

The Seahawks held the Rams to 68 rushing yards in their most recent game, but L.A.’s Kyren Williams is behind a banged up offensive line and he’s also just not that good. The 49ers have always been able to run the ball effectively under Kyle Shanahan, McCaffrey just adds an element of explosiveness that he’s never had before.

Hold the 49ers under 100 rushing yards

San Francisco was held under 100 yards for the first time all season last week and they have only been under 100 yards twice since the start of 2023.

The Seahawks think Ernest Jones IV gives them a leg-up at linebacker that they’ve lacked all season, plus Knight gets the first crack over Drake Thomas at being a long-term answer at WILL.

Outplay: Spread the ball around on offense

With DK Metcalf returning this week, this is Ryan Grubb and the QB’s opportunity to prove that they won’t just lock onto one receiver…whether that’s DK or Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

In his last three games against the 49ers, throws to DK are 8-of-25 (32% catch rate) for 132 yards (5.3 yards per target) and no touchdowns.

In DK’s last game against the 49ers, he caught 3 of 11 targets for 48 yards. Was that the product of a bad day or a bad plan? Don’t be so quick to blame “the plan” because DK’s almost always bad against the 49ers. Here are his 6 games against the 49ers since Seattle made a change at QB:

• 4 catches on 6 targets, 35 yards (27-7 L)

• 7/9, 55 yards (21-13 L)

• 10/13, 136 yards 2 TD (41-23 L*)

• 3/9, 32 yards (31-13 L)

• 2/5, 52 yards (28-16 L)

• 3/11, 48 (36-24 L)

*Wild Card

It’s not throwing DK or the QB under the bus to say that the Seahawks may benefit from not targeting DK 10-15 times this week. Aside from a 50-yard touchdown in that wild card game — which is awesome and what DK is capable of at any moment — almost no other throws in his direction have been successful against the 49ers in the last three years.

NO Player Over 100 Yards

Vision Board has never predicted that a Seahawks player should not get 100 yards, but the Seahawks have also never won a playoff game in the Vision Board era so maybe it’s time to make adjustments.

• If Kenneth Walker wants to rush for 200 yards, that’s great.

• If Metcalf takes a ball 75 yards to the house and ends up over 100 yards, that’s great.

• If JSN gets open 15 times, that’s amazing.

But what about actually UTILIZING YOUR GREATEST STRENGTH on offense: The DEPTH at receiver, tight end, and running backs who can catch.

Remind fans that the Seahawks not only have DK and JSN, but also Tyler Lockett, A.J. Barner, Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Jake Bobo, and Laviska Shenault. (Cody White probably won’t be elevated.) Instead of one guy getting 120 yards in a loss, what about 5 guys getting 40-60 yards in a win?

Outlast: Outpunt, Outkick, Outcover

If we could eliminate two problems from Seattle immediately:

• Read/React/Angle/Leverage/Tackle properly

• Stop wiping yards and points off of the board with stupid offensive penalties

The concept of “Hidden Yards” is something that Seaside Joe will be paying close attention to for the rest of the season because the Seahawks continue to be their own worst enemies:

• 8.3 penalties per game (Worst in the NFL!)

• 63.4 penalty yards per game (4th-worst in the NFL!)

• 10 interceptions (tied for most in the NFL!)

• 5 lost fumbles (18th)

• Only 9 takeaways (18th)

• 3.1 sacks allowed per game (6th most!)

• 96 punt return yards (t29th!) and 7.4 yards per return (28th)

If the Seahawks were exactly the same but one of those “annoyingly good teams at the fundamentals” then we would probably be talking about Seattle holding a 1 or 2 game lead in the NFC West. Instead, they do all these things wrong, they also still miss a ton of tackles, and they blow their opportunities when they do finally get the ball at the other team’s 7.

It’s not all bad.

• The Seahawks are good at kick returns and kickoffs

• Michael Dickson isn’t having an All-Pro season, but he’s not a problem either and he’s getting better each week

• Jason Myers is usually good

Goal for Seahawks players and coaches: Just don’t embarrass the Seahawks anymore

Taking advantage of good field position and San Francisco’s mistakes could end Seattle’s losing streak to the 49ers.

Playing undisciplined, chaotic, and fighting over who’s to blame will not.

Seaside Jay’s “Vibes” Picks:

Hero of the week is...  Olu Oluwatimi. His coworker, Connor Williams, just retired so there's a little more pressure to perform and I see a diamond in Olu.

Zero of the week is... 49ers offensive tackle, Trent Williams. Please don't talk to me unless you're Trent Reznor. 

Seaside Joe 2085