Can Seahawks avoid same post-Giants win slump they had in 2022?

Taking Super Joes questions during the Bye Week! Seaside Joe 1678

First question…

Seasider La’au

Can Hurtt and co replicate what we saw on Mon vs. and actual NFL team?

To review La’au’s question with context, even though you already know the context, the Seahawks held the Giants to three points, 136 net passing yards, tied a franchise record with 11 sacks, and forced three turnovers.

And I agree 100%: The Giants offense is one of the best opportunities for a Pete Carroll defense to pad their stats in his entire coaching career.

New York would have had a bad offensive line even at full strength, but these were the backups to mostly-bad starters, including an in-game injury to center John Michael Schmitz, and right tackle Evan Neal has regressed since being a top-10 pick over Charles Cross in 2022. Daniel Jones would be one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks behind any line. These receivers would be among the worst receivers. And Saquon Barkley didn’t play.

The Giants have scored 0, 31, 12, and 3 points in four games, with all 31 of those points in Week 2 coming in the second half against the Cardinals.

In a league with so many bad offenses to start the season—Bengals, Panthers, Jets, Bears, Steelers, Patriots, Falcons, Raiders—nobody has scored fewer points than the New York Giants. We NEED schedule and opponent-based context when talking about the Seahawks, ESPECIALLY because Seattle beat the Giants last season 27-13 and it was their second-best defensive performance of the season by EPA (Expected Points Added) and Jones was sacked five times in that game…

The next week, the Seahawks beat the Cardinals, and then Seattle lost five of six.

I want just as badly as you do to believe that the 2023 Seattle Seahawks are the best football team that your God has ever constructed, but to quote Tom Cruise when he was defending me in court for following a code red….

“It doesn’t matter what I believe, it only matters what I can prove!”

Nobody can prove that the Seahawks are going to replicate what they did against the Giants against other teams, New York’s offense is the closest thing that Seattle’s pass rushers are going to get to experiencing heaven on earth. Just look at this replay of Jordyn Brooks sacking Daniel Jones for the second time:

However, it’s also not guaranteed that the good times will stop rolling, as two other teams that have trouble protecting the quarterback (or the QB protecting him) are the Washington Moons and Cleveland Browns.

The Seahawks play the Moons in Week 10 (24 sacks allowed, most in the NFL) and the Browns in Week 8 (16 sacks allowed). Additionally, the Seahawks play the Bengals after the bye week and Cincinnati is 31st in points, 32nd in yards, and 32nd in QB calves. I’ve watch a lot of analysis this week on why the Bengals suck and the answer couldn’t be any simpler: Because Joe Burrow sucks.

Or at least, he’s playing like he sucks. Burrow has the same number of touchdown throws as Jones (2) and he’s 34th in Y/A at 4.8. I didn’t even know the league expanded two teams in London already!

So three of the next five opponents have giant offensive problems even if they don’t quite have the Giants offensive problems, and the other two opponents are the Cardinals and Ravens. Who could have guessed a month ago that the team I’d excuse as being a little more difficult than the Bengals would be the Arizona Cardinals?

But they’re still the Cardinals.

So, do I think the Seahawks will sack Joe Burrow 11 times? No. He’s only been sacked eight times total. Do I think they can sack Sam Howell 10 times? Maybe. Do I think that the Seahawks defense can emerge on the other side of the next five games being totally lost in their feelings and more confident than they’ve been in years because they played a string of teams with issues? And potentially healthier than they were in September?

It could happen and success in this league has a ton to do with confidence.

Rather than say “The Seahawks will” or “The Seahawks won’t”, I’ll say: The Seahawks had an opportunity for success and they’ll have more in their next five games, so let’s put a pin in this question and ask again when they are about to play their rematch against the Rams on November 19.

Another edition of the Seaside Joe suggestion box went out to Super Joes this week, which is basically like a mailbag but with a different name. If you want to receive suggestion box emails in the future to add your questions, upgrade from Regular Joes to Super Joes at a prorated annual rate or sign up for the first time today:

Seasider Kastnjl:

Could you review your preview of our NFC West division rivals, 4 games in? It seems like they are all performing above expectation.

Seasider Joel

I got one: your opinion on Brock Purdy as a QB after 4 games in 2022 or maybe it should be: has your opinion of the Niners changed after 4 games?

I had to go back in the bag (the Seaside Joe archives) for this one, but you’re 100% right: I have been off on all three other teams so far. (Nothing has surprised me about the Seahawks yet.)

I said the Cardinals were tanking (and still that was a clever title), the Rams would be deadline sellers, and the 49ers were in more trouble than people admitted.

Not a good look, Joe! Only way to rectify mistakes is to admit to them.

With regards to the Cardinals, any football fan would respect that they’ve fought as hard to win as any team in the NFL. They’re second in rushing yards per carry, fourth in turnovers, and Josh Dobbs hasn’t thrown a pick. Dobbs is playing better than any quarterback from the last three first rounds with the exception of C.J. Stroud.

And also, Arizona is 1-3. They could still be a three-win team. After seeing how the 49ers beat them in Week 4, I want that for Seattle. But I won’t overlook them anymore.

The Rams have the most talented quarterback in the NFC. Ignore statistics, Matthew Stafford is carrying a much worse offense than he had in 2021 and Aaron Donald is carrying a much worse defense. How? Well, the coaching is pretty good (no surprise) and despite having no first round picks, they have three rookies playing like they should have been first round picks: G Steve Avila, OLB Byron Young, and WR Puka Nacua. Not even kidding, they could all be Pro Bowl players as soon as their rookie seasons. That’s a testament to opportunity, but they’re seizing their chances.

Finally, I definitely picked the 49ers to win the NFC West and be a Super Bowl contender, I just saw potential issues, none of which have come close to biting them.

I’ll say this, they’ve beaten the Steelers, Rams, Giants, and Cardinals. You look at these next nine games and tell me if maybe San Francisco goes 5-4 or 6-3 in this stretch: Cowboys, @ Browns, @ Vikings, Bengals, bye, @ Jaguars, Bucs, @ Seahawks, Eagles, Seahawks

The hype on Brock Purdy was definitely a little much last season. He’s gotten better and he also has a lot of advantages that he didn’t have going into his rookie season as the third string QB and then being thrown into the fire in December. He’s a good quarterback, no question, for me.

I can’t have been the guy who defended Russell Wilson in 2012—when so many non-Seahawks fans wouldn’t believe he was a legit quarterback—and then not afford that same support to Purdy. He’s doing the job, it’s the hardest job in sports, I’ll give him credit.

Loaf Bench:

What with Andy Dickerson’s mastery of o-line tetris so far this season, how about an origin story? What he’s managed to achieve thus far is really impressive, and his likeable personality and good vibes lead me to thinking his journey could make quite the interesting read!

Good idea!

Seasider Roger Woitte

A preview of the next four games.

Touched on this a little bit already…Bengals, Cardinals, Browns, and Ravens, including two home games and all following a bye. There will be more time for a more in-depth preview of each and the schedule, but I’ll say this:

Division-winning teams don’t go 2-2 against the schedule. I’m not saying those are bad teams because they’re not bad teams. What I’m saying is that from Week 12-Week 15, including two Thursday games, the Seahawks play the 49ers twice, the Cowboys, and the Eagles.

If they got a 2-2 stretch in them, let it be that one!

A wild card team can go 2-2 against the Bengals, Cardinals, Browns, and Ravens. The NFC West winner would not. That’s what I’ll say.

Winning the division isn’t about winning the game of the year. It’s about beating all the teams you can beat. Cincinnati has played so poorly this season, the NFC West winner would definitely take advantage of them right now.

zezinhom400

When I first saw our super early bye week I was pissed. Now I’m grateful given the slew of injuries already. Is that just my perception? Or have the Hawks suffered an inordinate amount of injuries so far?

I’ve thought about this recently too and what I think is every year the perception is “this is the worst NFL injuries have ever been”.

Even if I saw a chart that “No, this is the worst it’s ever been” I would still think of it as an anomoly. Every injury is concerning on some level, but I don’t concern myself with injuries. It’s part of the game. Injuries and “unfair” penalties or non-calls, those are two things I never blame for losses.

No team wants the Week 5 bye, but Pete Carroll has admitted that this is probably ideal now that we know Seattle can come back with Charles Cross, Jamal Adams, and maybe a few more in Week 6.

Paul G

Given a healthy OL, can the offense become elite with Geno at QB? To define “elite” use the SSJ construction of being able to score 35 points if needed.

Or even the most relevant SSJ construction, “Can the Seahawks outscore the 49ers, Cowboys, and Eagles?”

I think that the Seahawks can outscore the Cowboys. We’ll see about the 49ers, it’s the most important question left on Seattle’s schedule.

I wonder, who are the four-best defenses the Geno Smith had played well against in the last two seasons? The Saints? The Chargers? This year’s Lions? I’m an “I’ve seen it, I believe it” guy, so now that Geno has earned an extended opportunity, I’m more than open to seeing it. People say I’m too hard on the quarterback—I’ve admitted many times that he’s better than I thought he would be and that he’s very talented!—so you tell me, who are the four best defenses that Geno has been great against:

They could be out there, I should review them again.

I’m the type of person who says there are maybe five or six great quarterbacks in the world, so as long as you agree that Geno isn’t one of them (not you, Paul, just the general “you”), we’re probably on good terms. I think every team knows when they have one of those quarterbacks, when they don’t, and will jump at the chance to get one when they can.

Seasider Joshular

I love Pete and hope he goes a while longer, but who should be the next Seahawks head coach?

I think about the stuff sometimes and I’m planning to write about the importance of Pete Carroll this week. However, it’s such an impossible question to answer—mostly because “When does Pete leave?”—that I have nothing of value to add. Pete could coach another 10 years. Really!

Seasider Luke

I’d be very interested in a breakdown on each of the 11 sacks we got against Giants.

I probably won’t cover every sack in the next All-22 article, but definitely going to be a point of emphasis. So if you’re reading this and not subscribed to Regular Joes yet, that would be a good opportunity to do it!