J.J. McCarthy's dramatic draft rise could be media-induced delusions

If J.J. McCarthy is "the green room slide" on draft day, the Seahawks should also pass on Michigan QB: Seaside Joe 1860

Why is it that two years ago every draft analyst was saying it was hard to evaluate prospects who played for Georgia because “the entire team is great” but not giving the same treatment to the players who just won a national championship at Michigan? Maybe it’s as simple as the fact that Georgia had five first round picks—all defense—and Michigan still might not have any (we will soon get to whether the QB is a lock or not), but this is a group that could have nearly 20 prospects drafted and the Chargers aren’t the only team with a strong connection to the program.

Obviously, the Seattle Seahawks have their own ties with former Michigan defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald now coaching the team (there were five Wolverines on Seaside Joe’s recent pre-draft visits list) and Jay Harbaugh moving up as college special teams coordinator to NFL special teams coordinator (I wrote about 3 potential Michigan draft ST connections here).

I will be surprised if the Seahawks get to the first rookie minicamp and there isn’t at least one Michigan player on the roster. There might even be two or three and any of those prospects might be a draft steal because Macdonald and Harbaugh had first-hand knowledge of their skills, but more importantly their work ethic and what it is like to work with him on a day-to-basis.

However, one of the Michigan prospects who I’m not sold on as being as good as his currently projected pick (which has gone up almost 40 spots recently based solely on rumors) is the one who is the most talked about from the team, if not in the entire 2024 draft class: QB J.J. McCarthy.

Today’s Seaside Joe is about skepticism. Usually draft topics tend to gravitate around prospects we like and “Oooh, if only the Seahawks could get this guy” similar to 2023’s posts about Devon Witherspoon. That’s something I’ve covered a few times already—like this one trying to figure out who the top-15 prospects will be and my “top-5 remaining” list—or this one about 10 prospects I’m circling for the first round—or this one on 5 prospects who the Seahawks “can’t” draft—and those are all very good and valuable topics to research at this time of year.

But it is just as important to narrow a list down as it is to hype certain scenarios up.

In reviewing some draft profiles on first round prospects lately, I became a little bit nervous about the Seahawks picking any of these players with the 16th overall selection. Perhaps this anxiety will prove misplaced in a couple of years, but we can’t run away from being skeptical or critiquing prospects because it isn’t as “nice” as saying why they could be great. Any of these prospects could be great. I’m not sold that they’d be great picks in the first round, including the quarterback from the school that has the most NFL Draft prospects this year.

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Originally, this was going to be a post about several prospects but the section on McCarthy turned out to be long enough for a single profile. There will be future articles on draft skepticism at other positions—ones more likely to be picked by Seattle in the first—so subscribe not to miss any.

QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

The “Mich” in QB4 should be “Michael”, not “Michigan”. I can’t say that I will have a lot conviction for either prospect’s future in the NFL—no matter how many times we hear that this guy’s great or that guy’s awesome, the data is crystal clear that the league would be extremely lucky to get 3+ future long-term QB starters out of the draft—but so far I’ve come away more convinced that Michael Penix Jr belongs in the first round and not Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy.

Ultimately it could be both or none of them going in the first round and I won’t say that McCarthy “sucks” or anything like that. It’s just that when a prospect’s most-repeated greatest strength is “Just trust me, bro”, that’s like the opposite of what I want to do. I don’t trust you! Why isn’t there something more concrete?!

“Because you don’t understand the Michigan offense, it just doesn’t run through the quarterback.”

I heard Brett Kollmann repeat someone else’s quote recently by saying that “the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” as if because McCarthy didn’t do something it doesn’t mean he can’t. Here, I’ll queue it up to him saying the quote right now:

Okay, but you do also know that I could make a quote that says, “the absence of evidence isn’t the presence of evidence either, right?” I know it doesn’t do the whole “good quotes are always symmetrical” thing, but it’s at least as true as the one that sounds better.

Experience Matters—to the Seahawks especially

When I was pointing out Sam Howell in the 2022 draft, something I focused on was that Seattle has clearly had an affinity for quarterbacks with experience: Russell Wilson threw almost 1,500 passes in college, Alex McGough had over 1,300 attempts as a four-year starter, Drew Lock had over 1,500, and Howell had over 1,100 in three seasons at UNC. Of the few quarterbacks who the Seahawks have either drafted or traded for as potential starters, they all had much more experience in college than the average.

I don’t think these numbers are meaningless in an age where there are so many quarterback busts. Brock Purdy was a four-year starter at Iowa State, Justin Herbert was a four-year starter at Oregon, Dak Prescott was a three-year starter with almost 1,200 attempts at Mississippi State to name three. It’s not a perfect science—there are plenty of four or even five-year college starters not fit for the NFL—but I think teams would rather have the presence of evidence over the absence of it.

J.J. McCarthy had 713 pass attempts at Michigan, less than half as many as players like Russ and Lock, and there’s only so much information you can gather with a sample size that is maybe 50% that of his competition: Michael Penix threw 1,685 passes in SIX years of college. Even if you’re just able to see his faults better that way, at least you are able to see his faults better that way!

When I see talk about Drake Maye skipping passes or throws in the dirt, I know that’s not good, but he also threw the ball about 50% more often than McCarthy did in the past two seasons. If McCarthy had 300 more passes, what would his lowlights reel look like after that?

It’s one thing when the inexperienced quarterback is Anthony Richardson. The drafting team has a 99th percentile athlete with an NFL-ready arm to mold into Josh Allen if they get super lucky, but McCarthy isn’t close to that. Per PFF, McCarthy’s measurements put his hand size under the 10th percentile and his height and weight around the 40th percentile.

McCarthy’s athleticism is considered “good” rather than “great” and that means that he absolutely has to be a winning passer from the pocket. And yet this seems to be another attribute that an NFL team needs to develop with McCarthy rather than one he comes with as PFF had this to say:

As a first-time starter in 2022, he struggled to get off his primary read, fell for sim pressures and didn't have good instincts when pressured. In 2023, all of that improved, though that improvement needs to continue. His arm talent is good, both for velocity and natural accuracy. However, he does need to continue to get stronger to get his arm talent to an NFL level.

So in one of the two seasons that McCarthy was a starter at Michigan, he struggled to read a defense and then when he improved the next year, he was better but not great. He arm is good, but not strong enough. He’s athletic but not a dual threat. He’s tall enough, but not stocky enough and has small hands. He was in a run-first offense, but don’t hold that against him because we said so. He’s great throwing to the middle of the field, but inaccurate and inconsistent throwing outside. He’s got good throwing mechanics and footwork, but lacks touch.

I haven’t had to write this many buts about a Michigan prospect since the tight end Jake.

“Pretty good” is not “first round good”

If McCarthy’s film and draft profiles read as “pretty good” to you, that’s fine and probably how I feel too. However, what I think happens is people in the draft community confuse “he’s a pretty good prospect who I’ve heard could go in the top-5” with “he’s a top-5 prospect”. If you had just only ever heard that McCarthy was a day two prospect, which had been the case for months prior to the combine basically, then wouldn’t these exact same reports read as fitting for a day two QB prospect?

That’s how it all reads to me: This is a day 2 QB prospect who is being talked about like he’s a top-5 pick. Hours before the 2023 draft, Will Levis had become the betting favorite to go second overall.

It doesn’t really matter what the NFL Draft community is talking about because they’re all taking their cues from each other and it only takes a single report from one reputible source for everyone else to start repeating it. McCarthy has one of the most dramatic mock draft rises I’ve ever seen, going from an average of 43rd overall before the combine to 6th as of today:

Why? What happened at the combine? Literally NOTHING that wasn’t predicted before the combine: I was told for a long time that McCarthy would “blow teams away in interviews” and it seems like that’s all it is because McCarthy didn’t do anything significant in drills or in his throwing session. It appears that pre-determined interview momentum has kept rising his stock in the media from the combine to Michigan’s pro day, in addition to the likelihood of teams like the Vikings and Broncos to select a quarterback based on recent moves and quotes. It doesn’t guarantee those teams want McCarthy.

Sean Payton said that the Broncos could indeed trade up for a quarterback, although he could be lying.

The Vikings acquired an additional first round pick, although that doesn’t preclude them from drafting Penix over McCarthy: Minnesota reportedly is very interested in Penix and had the staff meet with him in Seattle this week. Why couldn’t Penix go ahead of McCarthy? Because of draft rumors that have only occurred in the last three weeks, when football wasn’t being played?

Illusion vs. Delusion

I had to look this up just to be sure I was sure of the definitions of illusion and delusion, so here’s the result:

“Example: The relative calm of the jungle gives an illusion of safety and peace. Example: The intricate set design in the theater produced the illusion of an enchanted forest. Delusion is a dangerous misperception or an idea that misleads a person into dangerous patterns of thought.”

We could debate how “dangerous” it is to draft a quarterback too early, but misleading people into patterns of thought based on misperceptions sounds A TON like reading about prospects on Twitter and watching breakdowns on YouTube. The people creating those pieces of content often do have an agenda, the agenda to “hype” well-liked prospects for more attention on their content, and we’ve seen this plenty of times in recent years with the likes of Justin Fields, Will Levis, and Malik Willis to name three.

But hype will always fight a losing battle against evidence. The evidence of evidence.

I think all of this extra time between the combine and the draft—two months worth—is enough for GMs to sober up from the hype and realize that this quarterback is a reach in the top-10. I believe McCarthy’s best case scenario would not be to go to a team that needs a quarterback, but to land with one that doesn’t starting with the L.A. Rams at 19. Or the Dolphins at 21, the Cowboys at 24, and the Lions at 29. The Vikings could even have acquired the additional first round pick at 23 in order to pick the best overall player at 11 and then swoop on the best available QB.

What about the Seahawks fit with McCarthy?

Certainly you could argue that Seattle is in just as good of a position to draft McCarthy into a situation where he will have an entire year to develop behind-the-scenes, but I would be surprised if McCarthy’s going to be the highest-rated player on John Schneider’s big board at 16 and there’s only so much endorsing that Macdonald could do (if he endorses at all) based on mutual friends.

Furthermore, the Seahawks would be taking the biggest risk to take a project QB at 16 knowing that they’re not on the board again until 81. Even if you have the Seahawks trading down 37 times to add 1,200 fourth round picks and then selecting McCarthy, I think it is not that realistic to believe a team is so sold on a quarterback being a franchise player that they would risk losing the chance to draft him. Teams had to trade UP for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen because they were so sold on them. If McCarthy is that guy for any team, they will trade up for him.

Maybe the interviews were indeed so good that’s what will happen. I think the absence of evidence is way too evident right now for me to believe it will or that the Seahawks should.

Michigan’s “too much talent” problem?

Also, for what it’s worth, let’s reflect back on the question I started with today: Did Georgia players get over-drafted or under-drafted based on the fact that they were the most talented college football team in the country? Two years later, there is no possible answer other than “they got over-drafted”. Chris Simms did his pre-draft DT rankings and talked about Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt as if they were generational talents, but right now both of them are just “pretty good”. Quay Walker has “not lived up to” his first round status, according to some Packers writers. And of course, Travon Walker was the number one pick…coincidentally for today’s article, over a Michigan player (Aidan Hutchinson) who deserved it more.

It was kind of the same story for Georgia in the 2023 draft after winning their second straight national championship. Nolan Smith was no more valuable to the Eagles as a rookie as Lewis Cine and Nakobe Dean have been from the 2022 draft. Other than Jalen Carter and Walker being too good of athletes to drop out of the top-10, Georgia players from 2022-2023 are kind of struggling in the NFL.

This doesn’t mean that Michigan players will struggle just because they also won the national championship and have the most prospects (in case you’re wondering, Michigan draft picks haven’t done significantly better than Georgia’s over the past two years, aside from Hutchinson) but would we be talking about McCarthy at all if he played at Miami or Cal?

Some argue that’s not his fault, but I kind of disagree: In today’s college football, a quarterback with McCarthy’s rare superstar status could have transferred to another school with an eight-figure NIL offer in hand and been able to prove himself as a passer in a different offense to quiet skeptics and secure his place as the number one pick in 2025. I can’t say that it would be an easy decision to pass up the NFL Draft when you’re being told you are a first round pick now, but it was an option and age is on McCarthy’s side.

He chose the draft over the portal and while that is probably the right decision (because if he’s good enough, he’s good enough and if he’s not good enough then transferring could have killed his draft stock) it still leaves us with the absence of evidence. That’s not evidence enough for me to use a first round pick.

Where will J.J. McCarthy go?

A year ago, I wrote that I was skeptical of Will Levis being the top-10 pick that most argued he was destined to be, I felt he was a day two player, and that proved to be correct. Two years ago, when the mock drafts thought that the Seahawks could draft Malik Willis at ninth overall “if he even falls that far” but I wrote that he was a day two prospect with a third round grade, same I felt as Desmond Ridder.

So is J.J. McCarthy the 2024 version of the overrated media QB? Well, I’m less convinced of McCarthy being available on day two as I have been the past two years, but I would not be at all surprised if he goes after Penix and if he’s taken outside the top-20.

It only takes one team to be convinced for McCarthy to go in the top-10 and the case against him is just as murky as the case for him: It was far easier for me to say that Willis, Ridder, and Levis were far too underwhelming to be early draft picks as compared to McCarthy. So I’m as prepared for McCarthy to be a top-10 pick as maybe as I was for Daniel Jones to be a top-10 pick in 2019. It could even be the same Giants team that takes a quarterback earlier than that prospect would normally go.

But I still think that the true grade for McCarthy should be outside the top-20 picks, and then after that his list of potential suitors will be much more…evident; McCarthy is a better fit for the Rams and Cowboys than he is maybe for the Vikings and Seahawks.