First, I want to start with a question:
Are the Bears a tougher opponent for the Seahawks than the Chiefs were?
Tell me why you think they are or aren’t in the comments, and whether or not Quenton Nelson factored into your decision:
Tuesday’s trade for Nelson reminded me of another Seahawks acquisition of a similar caliber: Cooper Kupp.
Seattle signed Kupp as a free agent in 2025 and whether the team expected Jaxon Smith-Njigba to immediately become the best offensive player in football or not, it’s difficult to separate his influence from the result.
Not only did Kupp bring the experience of being a wide receiver who won Offensive Player of the Year in 2021, and he was willing to be a mentor to JSN or any other receiver on the Seahawks who wanted advice, but he also allowed Seattle to move JSN from the slot to a more explosive and valuable role as a do-everything weapon on the outside.
Smith-Njigba was well on his way to become a superstar in his own right without Kupp. That doesn’t mean that Kupp didn’t fast-track and supercharge JSN’s development from a star to an ascending legend.
Now consider what the Seahawks just did by trading for the best guard in the NFL despite having a recent first-round pick who plays on the same side:
Grey Zabel hasn’t developed into a star left guard as quickly as Seattle hoped he would
Quenton Nelson displaces him at left guard (read Tuesday’s bonus Q Nelson article if you haven’t already)
Zabel moves to a spot where he may be a more natural fit
The best guard of his generation tells Zabel and any other lineman who will listen, “Do this…Stop doing that…”
This is the type of “Buddy System” roster building that the Seahawks have created and potentially mastered since John Schneider became the team’s true CEO since the departure of Pete Carroll in 2024.
Such as?
Look at these buddies:
Byron Murphy II has Leonard Williams
Derick Hall has DeMarcus Lawrence
JSN has Kupp
Zabel (and Beau Stephens) have Nelson
Jalen Milroe has Sam Darnold and Drew Lock
It’s not unusual for a roster to have players of different NFL generations. But there’s something so intentional about certain pairings like Nelson/Zabel, JSN/Kupp, and Hall/Lawrence especially. Obviously you could say that Zach Charbonnet can give some guidance to Jadarian Price, but they’re totally different types of running backs.
Whereas Murphy is a special player who could become better than Leonard Williams—and they both know it.
On a similar scale you’ve got buddies who maybe we haven’t seen enough of yet, such as: Bud Clark/Julian Love, Julian Neal/Josh Jobe, Rylie Mills/Jarran Reed, Ernest Jones/Tyrice Knight, Devon Witherspoon/Trevon Diggs or Nehemiah Pritchett/Diggs.
I’d even say that Eric Saubert can teach A.J. Barner and Elijah Arroyo what it’s like to be a better blocking tight end.
This is also what makes Nick Emmanwori such a fascinating player — read Wednesday’s Emmanwori value assessment if you haven’t already — because basically anyone on the defense could be his “buddy”.
Emmanwori is learning from Lawrence what it takes to be a pass rusher, from Love what it takes to be a safety, from Witherspoon what it takes to dominate in the slot, from Jones what it takes to plug up the run as a linebacker … He has a lot of friends.
For Grey Zabel, just one friend comes to mind … and he’s the best buddy a guard could ask for.
Week 8 Expectations
I saw the movie WHALEFALL last week and it kind of reminded me of what it must feel like to be a Seahawks fan who isn’t playing the weekly 12 Questions expectations game every week: Trapped, Lost, Alone, and Afraid. Get out of the whale, play the game!
Click Here:
Take the Week 8 Seahawks-Bears Expectations Survey Here!
Did you play??? Click up there^^^
If you’re not playing, I only have two words of advice for you:
Send Kelp.
From Chiefs to Bears
In Week 7, the average answer for expected points allowed to Kansas City was 18.7, a result I felt was high given the excellent matchup for Seattle’s defense. This was actually the second-highest expectation for points allowed all season, just 0.3 under Week 6’s game against the 49ers:
The Seahawks were expected to score 22.6 points, the lowest pre-game scoring expectations all season.
I expect both numbers to improve in the Week 8 survey.
I wrote about the Bears on Tuesday, a newsletter immediately overshadowed by Nelson. I think Chicago is more talented than Kansas City offensively — and probably has better 2026 play calling — but they are worse defensively. Saved only by the fact that they faced three really bad offenses from Week 2-Week 4.
The Bears defensive line is a good “settle in” game for Quenton Nelson, as well as Zach Charbonnet in his first action since last season.
Another matchup that could be exploited is Jaxon Smith-Njigba against anyone. Chicago’s defensive backs who have been targeted at least 10 times this season have all struggled. The top line is Jaylon Johnson, who is supposed to be the Bears best corner:
Tyrique Stevenson has allowed 240 yards and 3 touchdowns on 13 catches.
There will be no Coby Bryant reunion because he’s on IR.
Receivers with at least 75 yards against the Bears this season includes Christian Watson (143), Jalen Coker (138), Matthew Golden (123), Jahan Dotson (83), and Tet McMillan (75). JSN has five games with at least 120 yards this season, which is three more than any other player.
Only 3.5% of you predicted that JSN would have at least 150 yards against the Chiefs. Even with high expectations, he’s exceeding them.
So which game do you think presents more problems for Seattle:
The Chiefs were 6-0 prior to MNF, and they went to the Super Bowl five times in a six-year span; but they were missing several starters on offense and the Seahawks have the perfect formula to shutdown Ken Walker
The Bears haven’t been to the Super Bowl in 20 years and they’ve only averaged 20 points per game since Week 2; but Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson, and a diverse group of skill players could prove to be a harder equation for Macdonald to solve than a predictable Kansas City offense
Have you decided which matchup is harder yet?
Let’s run through a few more Super Joes questions this week.
Casey: What is MM’s response to the 13 personnel trend? In one meeting he might tell Fleury, “Yep, do more of that because it is hard to defend for teams that have been built defend a different thing.” And in another meeting, “We have a response to defend this, and everyone that is copying the Rams is going to regret playing us.”
Your ‘stack is great and the most insightful commentary on the Seahawks, hands down.
If you’re interested in learning more about Xs and Os and how to defend 13 personnel, I recommend checking out MatchQuarters; here’s a recent substack video he posted on defending 13 with “Patriots 2-Roll Coverage”.
Here’s a video of the Bears running 13 personnel for a touchdown:
Seattle is running much 13 personnel (5%) and they aren’t very efficient when they do. I don’t think Mike Macdonald is necessarily telling Brian Fleury what to do and that’s by design. If Fleury can’t make adjustments to improve by the end of the season, the Seahawks have shown they’re not afraid to make a change after one year.
Hopefully I understood your question and helped a little bit but I’m way out of my element compared to those guys above.
Ray: I'm super glad SF lost to Atlanta, that sort of thing happens every now and then. But who would have ever envisioned the Dolphins beating the Jets (Come on Geno), the Giants beating Houston in a high-scoring game, or the Buccaneers tub-thumping the Panthers by 30 points?
I asked my Panthers fan friend about that and he just said “It’s a reminder that we’re not good.” I wonder if the Texans need to have a similar realization; their defense has been downright terrible 4 out of 7 games.
zezinhom400: Do you think all the hype around Ben Johnson is legit? Meaning, is he the next Shanahan/McVay? What’s unique about his offenses compared to some of the other great offensive minds like Andy Reid and the above mentioned NFC West coaches.
Does “maybe” satisfy an answer? The early returns are good (16-8 regular season record, top-10 offense both years) and the offensive players seem to be developing nicely. But going by results, Matt Nagy had a better start as Bears head coach than Johnson.
One of the biggest differences you’ll notice between the Chiefs and Bears is pre-snap motion:
Chiefs have run fewest pre-snap motion plays in NFL
Bears have run the fifth-most
You’ll notice a lot of heavy personnel (2-3 tight ends), pre-snap motion, wide zone running plays, and Johnson’s ability to stay unpredictable. His offense is like the mirror image of Macdonald’s defense in that he’s trying to show you the same look as before but then do something completely different.
Chicago likes to run outside the tackles as much as Kansas City, but they’re not as good at it. They have this uber-talented quarterback, but then Johnson puts him in a box and tries to mold Caleb Williams into a game manager who also has these wild improvisational plays up his sleeve. We picture Williams throwing 50-yard bombs—but he’s taking the lowest rate of deep shots of any QB in the NFL.
Then you look over at the Lions team that Johnson left as the number one offense two years ago … and the Lions still have a great offense.
For what it’s worth, Sean McVay shot out like a bullet with the Rams, but Kyle Shanahan started 6-10 and 4-12 with the 49ers. So the jury is out on Ben Johnson.
zezinhom400: What do you see against Chicago that explains your confidence Seattle will beat them. They seem to have a well balanced offense including a good offensive line, weapons on the outside and a strong running game. I worry if we end up in a shootout
If I am giving off “confidence” it’s probably just that I knew the Bears were massively overrated last season and I don’t see any obvious improvements this season. The way that they were so bad defensively against the Packers and so bad offensively against the Vikings, I haven’t seen that level of team incompetence from Seattle since 2024.
Could the Seahawks lose because they turn the ball over three times and one player on Chicago’s offense gets hot like Mike Evans got hot? Of course.
But a home primetime game and Seattle’s defense is arguably better than it was last season? These are the types of matchups for Williams in which the fans will pretend it never happened or it wasn’t his fault. I hesitate to use Seattle’s 6-3 win over the Bears in 2024 because it was his rookie season, but it did happen. He was atrocious in the playoffs last year and against the Vikings this year.
A “shootout” would surprise me. Chicago’s defense is largely based on yards after the catch — something the Seahawks excel at containing — and they’ll be better than any defense the Bears have faced in forcing Williams to take the small stuff. He’s a lot more like Bo Nix than people realize and I’m not saying he’s as bad as Nix, or that he’s bad, but his reputation goes well beyond his resume.
The Seahawks current DVOA is better than any DVOA that Williams has faced in his career.
Last season, Williams had a 107.6 passer rating against bottom 10 defenses, and an 82.8 rating against top 10 defenses. I would be more concerned if the Seahawks were facing Ben Johnson’s former team, the Lions, because if we compared the two Detroit would have the best running back, the best receiver, the best deep threat receiver, the best offensive tackle, and the best tight end.
I’m not sure if it’s based on the hype around Williams and Johnson or the 59 points they scored in Week 1, but I’ve yet to see a consistently potent offense like the one the Bears are meant to have.
As usual, I’d advise people be more afraid of the Seahawks beating themselves than Chicago beating them.
Rusty: It seems like some pundits like to hand out “best defense in the NFL” awards to different teams weekly. Just yesterday I read the Vikings are clearly tops. Others say Texas, or Denver and before Sunday, some even said KC. Yet my eyes, which have watch d all these teams play, say it’s the Seahawks by nearly a mile. Are my glasses too rose colored, or am I wasting time reading BS about other D’s?
I think it would be important to distinguish, “Best defense at what?”
The Seahawks are not the best defense in all phases, so there’s a chance that they’d be worse off against certain offenses than other teams. Few defenses in history have been the best across the board. Seattle does rank first in yards per game, yards per play (4.0 to second place’s 4.5), and they’re top three in most every category.
Much respect to the Vikings, they’ve only allowed six touchdowns in six games. Their red zone defense? 3-of-13 allowing a touchdown. Seattle’s red zone defense? 11-of-14. Much worse.
There’s a lot of season left and either team — or another — could establish themselves as the clear favorite going into the playoffs … when it matters.
Ryan: Late to the game so I’m seeing this after the Quenton Nelson news (let’s go!!!). Let’s keep SSJ’s predictions rolling - what will his next contract be? (Presumably with the Seahawks since JS continually shows these trades are not 1 year rentals
In the neighborhood of four years, $108 million.
It sounds like a lot, but when the Seahawks cut Cooper Kupp or he retires, that’s $17 million. When DeMarcus Lawrence retires, that’s $9 million. They also won’t be paying Anthony Bradford now. Just with the money that Seattle doesn’t pay to two guys leaving and one guy not re-signing, the Seahawks can afford the best guard in football.
Thanks to all who helped contribute to Clark’s fund—and everyone who has become a Regular Joes subscriber recently. Clark is doing good but we are going back to the vet today and continuing to assess the steps to get him all the proper care he needs.
Sometimes I’ll read back what I wrote and think to myself that it doesn’t quite sound right. I don’t think Caleb is really like Nix but more they run a lot of short passes. Not that’s there’s nothing wrong with that necessarily.
The buddy system extends to the depth players. JS/MM strive to have guys with similar skill sets who can step up when needed without huge changes to the playbook. Of course, there is no second JSN, and you need three players to back up Emmanwori’s roles. There are no backup unicorns.
The Bears O is more difficult than KC’s, because there are more variables. With KC, the defense needed to neutralize one well-known player and then cover the expected pass plays. The Bears are less predictable. That means more if-this-then-that coaching. Get tricked and get gashed. It’s a bigger mental load.
Regarding our offense, they looked super crisp Sunday night. It was like a marching band with freshly starched and pressed uniforms, playing uptempo, hitting all the right notes on point. The interception? Late throw by Sam. A good reminder not to relax back into sloppy habits.
I expect a win, if everyone is mentally sharp. But if players have brain fog, the Bears will own it.