Here DK, Gone Tomorrow?

DK Metcalf's hidden negatives and other Seahawks talking points

🚨UNPOPULAR OPINION WARNING🚨: The Seahawks will be better off without DK Metcalf.

These are DK Metcalf’s numbers through six seasons:

These are perfectly good numbers and Metcalf’s career stands among the best in franchise history for a wide receiver, but year 6 looks a lot like his rookie campaign.

2019: 16 games, 100 targets, 58 catches, 900 yards, 7 TDs

2024: 15 games, 108 targets, 66 catches, 992 yards, 5 TDs

Has Metcalf developed? Is he just held back to by Seattle’s OCs? Was he better off with Russell Wilson than Geno Smith? Fair questions. Now compare Metcalf’s six seasons to the final six seasons of Doug Baldwin’s career:

Metcalf has Baldwin beat by 7 yards per game, their touchdowns and receptions per game are almost exactly the same, but the undrafted “ADB” has the combine history-maker beat in these categories:

• Yards per target: 9.2 to 8.7

• Catch Rate: 70.4% to 60.3%

• Success Rate: 56.4% to 51.4%

Yet their career narratives are complete opposites: “Ordinary” vs “Extraordinary”

In the NFL, most players will never escape the perceptions people had about them at draft time. Metcalf is “supposed to be better than his numbers indicate” and Baldwin was “the ultimate overachiever” who was just lucky to be in the league.

But Baldwin played in an era where receiving numbers were more depreciated than they are today and you can see that he was giving the Seahawks at least as much production as Metcalf in 2024, and it doesn’t end there because the real world offers a vastly different picture of Baldwin and Metcalf’s career production than what most of us see in our fantasy football leagues.

These are the differences in PENALTIES for Metcalf and Baldwin:

Despite Baldwin being the most hot-headed and emotional receiver in franchise history (the “A” stands for “ANGRY”!) he had fewer career TOTAL PENALTIES than Metcalf has had 10-yard penalties alone! And almost the same number as 15-yard penalties alone!

Metcalf has drawn a penalty more than three times as often as Baldwin.

Some will argue, understandably, that Metcalf’s physical intimidation factor (PIF) induces more attention from refs than Baldwin did at 5’10, 192. Fair enough. But to THIS degree? I don’t know for sure if DK is the most penalized receiver in NFL history…but I wouldn’t be surprised.

How about factoring in turnovers also?

As costly as any play in football: The FUMBLE.

• Baldwin fumbled 2 times in 123 career games (1 per 61 games)

• Metcalf has fumbled 9 times in 97 games (1 per 11 games)

Of active NFL receivers, Metcalf holds two titles for sure: Most-penalized and least-careful with the football.

Times the QB was intercepted when targeting this WR:

• Baldwin: 15 times (0.13 per game)

• Metcalf: 17 times (0.175 per game)

No matter who replaces him, the Seahawks will get better — not worse — when they part ways with Metcalf. Many of you will say that this is not an “unpopular opinion” and that is why the Seaside Joe community continues to be the gold standard.

Metcalf and what to do at receiver this offseason is one of the questions posed in this week’s Super Joes Q&A jam session. I take questions and comments from our Super Joes subscribers each week — upgrade to Super Joes for only $10 per month (less than half that of Netflix) to be in on the next round:

zezinhom400: I’ll list my top-5 Seahawks OC candidates…

1. Grant Udinksi -- he'll be creative and unexpected, and if he's a savant like MacDonald, they'll be on the same wavelength (that no one else sees)

2. Hank Fraley -- OL baby!!

3. Thomas Brown -- he's from the McVay tree

4. Klint Kubiak -- can't recall a successful offense he's led

5. Byron Leftwich -- ditto, plus didn't have a job last year

I am pulling for Udinski because that would be interesting. Not because I have any idea if he would be a good hire — nobody knows — but because none of us know how much longer we’ll be alive to witness the Seahawks in this life, so I’ll accept “entertainment value” while I’m still online.

Plus, a 28-year-old probably won’t leave for a head coaching job in a year or two, even if he’s super successful.

Defjames: What can the Seahawks learn from and try to replicate from the remaining NFL teams as they look to build a Super Bowl caliber roster? Having a franchise QB is the obvious one. I’ll say I’m not sure Hurts meets the criteria, but the other 3 clearly do. We can argue whether D wins championships, but having a D that gets turnovers and makes stops when you gotta have them is key.

I’ve mostly given up trying to figure out “What’s the formula to win the Super Bowl?” because the answer is going to be different every year: The idea isn’t to figure out how the last team won the Super Bowl, it’s to figure out how the next team will win the Super Bowl.

Patrick Mahomes is a great quarterback who did not have a great season. Jayden Daniels is a great rookie quarterback, but we’ve seen a lot of years like his (just usually not as a rookie) that didn’t get this far in the playoffs. If Joe Burrow had a better defense, he would’ve probably won MVP. If Lamar Jackson was better in the playoffs — or Mark Andrews has a better game — it might be the Ravens in the AFC Championship instead of the Bills.

Bottom Line: The Seahawks need better players. Everywhere!

But holding players accountable or admitting that many of them are not quite championship-caliber is something you will rarely find. The 2013-2014 Seahawks had a lot of great players, not only at quarterback, and this roster is lacking those recently. Maybe in a year from now we’ll tally up how many of these current Seahawks became great in 2025 (the Witherspoon, Murphy, Cross, Lucas, JSN, Hall, Mafe, etc. types), and I’m all for that! But they have not been championship-great lately.

Unfortunately there are also factors outside of anyone’s control: Schedule and “situation” factor in heavily. If the Seahawks played in the AFC South or NFC South, I bet they would have made the playoffs.

MTSeahawksFan: I'm curious about the rest of the coaching staff. They were all new (except for Karl Scott) and I have little to no inkling on how they did. Not sure how you rate their effectiveness, but I'd be interested in hearing other's perspectives! GO HAWKS!!

By firing Ryan Grubb, the Seahawks have opened the door for any offensive coach to be let go after Seattle picks a replacement. Of course, we should not expect that to happen — it’s a little late to be poaching staffs of their OL and QB coaches, etc. — but I’d be at least a tiny bit worried if I’m on that side of the ball.

On defense, I highlighted a few players who saw their stock go up in 2024 and one of those was rookie Tyrice Knight. Though the Seahawks also had a couple of disastruous seasons in that area, coach Kirk Olivadotti already had a bit of pedigree when he was hired.

Coaches who move up are often these coaches: QB, TE, LB, DB.

For Seattle that would be QBs Charles London (recently interviewed for an OC job, but didn’t get it), TEs Mack Brown, ILBs Olivadotti, and then that last one is Scott, as well as safeties coach Jeff Howard. I’d keep my eye on them.

Bob: With all due respect for the glaring O-line needs in the (so called "off season"), could a "D-line", Cortez Kennedy caliber trade up 1st round pick be possible? Yes, our current D-line has great potential now but I long for a " Legion of Boom" quality #1 Defense. I recall what the Boom did to the greatest offense in NFL history. Get an O-line Guard with the 2nd pick or a trade perhaps?

Grant (reply): An edge rusher should be a first round target possibility.

Paul G (reply): There’s a Cortez Kennedy in this draft?

Defensive tackle has been called the strongest position group in the 2025 classs, led by Michigan’s Mason Graham as a player talked about as a top-3 pick. If the Seahawks draft a defensive tackle in the first round that could be totally fine — Jarran Reed is a 32-year-old free agent — but I would hope that player turns out to be an elite pass rusher.

Edge rusher is also one of the positions I’ve been highlighting as a target. I don’t see a great one on the roster yet. Half of Derick Hall’s eight sacks were reminiscent of Brett Favre flopping so that Michael Strahan could get the sack record. Boye Mafe, already 26, has eight sacks in his last 23 games.

My gut says “trade the pick”, whatever that entails. Could be up, could be down, could be for a player, could be for 2026 picks…but if the Seahawks choose a defensive lineman of any sort, that would be understandable.

Grant: Let's talk about free agent WRs. Who will be on the market, what WR role do they play, and how much will they cost? If we had to replace DK and Lockett in the same offseason, who should be on our radar?

I have no fear of the Seahawks parting ways Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. With Lockett, the team is a year late anyway — the only reason they went the pay cut route is that releasing Lockett didn’t have much financial benefit. Now it has a lot.

Draft

From a pure “wide receiver type” perspective, I think Jaxon Smith-Njigba could replace Lockett as an outside “Z” and then the team has a slightly easier assignment of finding a slot receiver. If the Seahawks drafted one of those in the third round, there’s a decent chance that player could contribute immediately and because the NFL is pushing quality veterans out of their jobs earlier by the year due to the rise of valuable (and cheap) snaps in the draft, I would expect good players to hit the market with a low price tag.

Here’s a list of every active veteran NFL receiver at OvertheCap.com and if you sort by “Free Agency” you’ll see over 60-70 names…and that’s just free agents. Many more will be released!

Free Agency

Names like Demarcus Robinson, Dyami Brown, Elijah Moore, Tutu Atwell, Keenan Allen won’t inspire much confidence in helping Seattle win the Super Bowl — if that’s even the goal — but the bar isn’t “replace Lockett from 3 years ago”…It’s to find a player who makes $2 million who might not beat out the receiver the Seahawks draft in the third round but he’s cheap insurance.

Internal

The Seahawks also have receivers on their roster already like Cody White, Jake Bobo, Dareke Young, and yes John Rhys Plumlee, who they could want to keep and see if there’s more to see: The Bills had that patience with Khalil Shakir (the receiver I wanted the Seahawks to draft in 2022) and he’s become Josh Allen’s number one.

Metcalf

Metcalf’s value to the team is understandably a much more heated debate: Metcalf hasn’t been unproductive, but I used Baldwin as the comp in the intro because that might temper expectations a little bit.

Even if the Seahawks replaced Metcalf with Bobo, I think they could be better if Bobo had 600 yards, no fumbles, 6 touchdowns, no penalties than with Metcalf’s 900-1,100 yards, 2 fumbles, 4 touchdowns, and six penalties.

And if they can trade Metcalf for a second round pick, then replacing him with Bobo or a rookie or a free agent becomes even more valuable.

Maxx: Does Johnny Schneider get fired if the team has another regrettably average year? Not good enough for the playoffs but not bad enough for a top 5 pick? I would not be surprised at all if he trades out of the first round for lesser quality players because that's what he does. Seahawks will not be competitive with Schneider's continued philosophies and employment. Get rid of him if you want the Seahawks to be more competitive year in and year out. I've had enough of him and his philosophies and want the Seahawks to be playing for championships year in and year out.

With regards to Schneider needing a better-than-average season in 2025 to survive his job, that’s been a theme here recently with posts like “Will Seahawks cut Geno Smith?”, my pitch for Seattle to start trading current assets for 2026 draft picks, as well as why I think the team will extend Charles Cross…It’s an ass-saving move: “Hey, I’m locking in our future with players I drafted.”

So I’m glad you picked up on that. The Seahawks need to be a lot better or a lot worse in 2025. There’s going to be pushback on keeping Schneider if Seattle gets worse, but “Let me pick the number one quarterback” is a much easier sell to Jody than Schneider asking to keep his job if the Seahawks go 9-8.

Is it more likely that the Seahawks will win a Super Bowl if they continue to pick 19th every year or if they manage to get a top-10 pick and select a quarterback?

-The Chiefs traded up to 10 for Mahomes.

-The Bills traded up to 7 for Allen.

-The Moons drafted Daniels second overall.

So the teams didn’t necessarily need to tank — K.C. and Buffalo didn’t — but at some point they did have to be aggressive and bet on their scouting department. These are risks that Schneider avoids and while that can keep the Seahawks competitive in the regular season, it hasn’t given fans much to get excited about in the playoffs over the last ten years.

The worst case scenario for me, for you, for Schneider, for almost anyone involved is Seattle having another middling season like the last 10. And yet their schedule could be so soft that it will take a monumental offseason effort to tear it down to the point of “earning” a top-5 pick in 2026.

I think fans can both root for the team to be good while also not shedding any tears if the 2025 offseason seems to be more about the future than the next season. I don’t think those are mutually exclusive concepts and it’s probably Schneider’s best bet to have a long-term sustainable role as the Seahawks GM.

Seaside Joe 2152