What I think the Seahawks will do: Draft edition (3/30/2024)
Why Michael Penix isn't a perfect fit for Ryan Grubb, why the Seahawks would trade down, and the best part of this draft: Seaside Joe 1855
The 2024 NFL Draft could be one of the most anticipated of the social media era, as quarterback prospects are really what drive interest and value in a class more than anything else. If the class doesn’t have any premier quarterback prospects, like for example 2013 and 2022, that’s also usually when you see Eric Fisher and Travon Walker as number one overall picks and underwhelming returns all over the first round.
When you’re setting up for a class like this upcoming one with three or four top-10 picks at the quarterback position, it seems to raise the stock of many other prospects as they get pushed down the order and gives teams like the Seahawks—currently 16th—more value than they might usually receive without a top-10 pick. Look at the 2018 class: Every player picked from 11-20, with the exception of two, has made at least one Pro Bowl. One of the exceptions is Kolton Miller, a very good left tackle.
First round picks in 2018 not in the top-20 include D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley, and Lamar Jackson.
So are the Seattle Seahawks in the perfect position to grab a perennial Pro Bowler at 16 or the perfect position to sell the pick to a team that’s ready to overpay to move up 10 spots? With so much anticipation leading up to the 2024 draft on April 25th, I have many things I’m thinking and rather than creating four or five separate posts, I’m starting by putting a collection of thoughts I’m having right now into one.
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I think the Seahawks are holding tight at QB
All signs point to Geno Smith and Sam Howell as the immediate plan, which suggests that Pete Carroll wasn’t the only person in the building who believed it’s prudent to be patient at the quarterback position. In the era of the new coaching staff, they’ve backed up talk of him being the starter thus far by nearly guaranteeing his place on the 2024 roster. A release is improbable, a trade is unlikely unless something happens in August or September that makes it a viable option.
For instance, if for some reason Caleb Williams can’t start right away for the Bears then I think you’ll see a lot of media folks point to Geno as a replacement option. Chicago’s staff desperately needs a winning season and backups Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien won’t likely get them there if called on.
However, the Seahawks want to make the playoffs too and they also think their roster is good enough to get there in the NFC, so a move would necessitate Howell or a different quarterback standing out in the preseason and training camp. Just playing the probabilities here—Seattle’s mediocre draft capital, no viable veteran options left who are better than Howell—it sure appears as though the team will start Geno in 2024 with Howell as the backup.
As obvious of a statement as that seems to be since those are the only two quarterbacks on the roster and they are both solidly affirmed already as “NFL starter” and “NFL backup”, the Seahawks continue to play the dating game with quarterbacks in the draft. However, the only QBs they’ve shown public interest in who would seem to be available to them are Michael Pratt and John Rhys Plumlee, although John Schneider did make the requisite trip to UW’s pro day and got a long (unnecessary really) look at Michael Penix, Jr..
I think the end of this story is that the Seahawks either draft a quarterback late (Devin Leary always on my list, but you’ve got Sam Hartman, Joe Milton, Jordan Travis among the other options) or sign an undrafted free agent, and if they don’t draft a quarterback then they’ll definitely sign a priority free agent because as I said, they only have two!
So what’s the most likely QB depth chart in September? The same one we see now, but with a player like Plumlee on the practice squad.
In the rest of this post, I’ll explain why the Seahawks should either stay at 16 or trade down far in the draft, the signs (like the top-30 visits) that point to Seattle’s interest in an area of the draft where they hold zero picks, and the reason that Penix might not be a fit for OC Ryan Grubb that everyone else assumes that he is. Join Regular Joes for $5 to not miss the reasons why.