Seahawks Free Agency Week Predictions
How do Seahawks follow up their craziest weekend ever?
Any time a team trades its two highest-profile players in a three-day span, football fans will cry “REBUILD!”, “TEAR DOWN!”, and “TANK!?”
The Seahawks didn’t trade Geno Smith and DK Metcalf (article) because they’re starting over in 2025. No, John Schneider traded those players over the weekend because Seattle wasn’t finished starting over after the team fired Pete Carroll in 2024.
These moves are the finishing touches to Schneider’s “unde-Pete’d” season.
And where did Schneider get the idea to hard reset the roster? From Pete Carroll, of course.
In 2010, Carroll started the process of churning over almost every position on the Seahawks roster, but kept holdovers like Matt Hasselbeck, Julius Jones, Lofa Tatupu, John Carlson, Sean Locklear, Kelly Jennings, and Aaron Curry. By 2011, all of those players were gone.
Few players who were on the roster when Pete arrived in 2010 were still Seahawks a year later. Similarly, we could say that although Schneider had a hand in acquiring every player on Seattle’s roster in 2024, players like Geno and DK and Tyler Lockett are decidedly “Pete Carroll guys”. Their contracts made them difficult to part with last year, but now their contract demands made them impossible to keep.
Although the Seahawks have re-committed to Jarran Reed (just as Pete once did for Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant), re-signing Ernest Jones is another stamp on the new regime’s vision over Pete’s. Just like extending Leonard Williams (Pete’s last major move, but was Schneider more in control by then?) and Julian Love in 2024, Seattle is locking down foundational pieces on defense who have proven effective; while also creating cap space by parting with offensive starters who haven’t.
We know that players, coaches, and GMs always have bloated expectations, but no Seahawks believe that the team is going to win three games next season, nor should they. Forget the lack of a starting quarterback on the roster today and just remember Seattle’s 2025 opponents:
15 teams (Rams, 49ers, Cardinals twice each)
Of 12 non-NFC West teams, only the Moons* won a playoff game
7 missed the playoffs
4 have top-10 picks
The 49ers went 6-11, the Cardinals went 8-9
We know, teams change year over year. But we’re not asking if the Seahawks can win 14 games or not, we’re just asking if they will win more than 7.
Titans, Jaguars, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Colts, and the Cardinals twice? With Macdonald’s defense, I would be surprised if Seattle didn’t at least finish around .500. Parting with Geno and DK doesn’t move the needle by eight wins/losses in either direction. Or even four. Or even three.
*The only reason I call the Washington team the “Moons” is that I think their choice was a stupid team name and mine is a great team name, that’s why I do that
No matter what the Seahawks do in free agency — from “nothing” to trading for Trey Hendrickson and signing their top-three targets — they have players on both sides of the ball who don’t expect to rebuild.
Not just young guys like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker, Abe Lucas, Charles Cross, Devon Witherspoon, Boye Mafe, Derick Hall, Byron Murphy, Ernest Jones, Tariq Woolen, Zach Charbonnet, A.J. Barner, and Tyrice Knight…but also experienced veterans Leonard Williams, Julian Love, Uchenna Nwosu (for now), and Noah Fant (for now) who won’t understand why they’re being written off just because the team traded Geno Smith.
Will they write back though?
I hope to be the least-corny person who covers the Seahawks, so don’t take this as a rallying cry for how "people are underestimating how this team has so much heart!” and blah blah blah. It’s not necessary. This is the NFL and not that much separates the teams “at the bottom” and Super Bowl contenders.
Look at the Moons last season. Look at the Rams and Texans the year before last. I would be surprised if Seattle makes a DEEP playoff run in 2025, but as we head into free agency I do predict the Seahawks to be a playoff team…at a very, very, much too early stage to make predictions.
However, Schneider didn’t free up something like $80 million in cap space since restructuring Williams a month ago because he’s trying to make the team weaker. He’s doing it so that for the first time in a long time, the Seahawks will have power.
The power for the Seahawks to do whatever they want with that money (roughly $68 million cap space today, and an estimated $180 million for 2026) in the offseason.
Where will that money go?!?!
I’ll lay out predictions for what fans should expect Schneider to do in free agency this week and with Seattle’s newfound cap space, the quarterback position, and DK’s replacement(s), and here’s a promotion for why you should upgrade to Regular Joes to keep reading those predictions:
The Seahawks offseason is remarkably close to the “without Geno Smith” offseason that I wrote last month, including parting with Geno, trading DK, and releasing all 5 players that they released. These were NOT moves that most, if anyone other writers, prepared fans for but Seaside Joe. I also wrote that Metcalf wouldn’t be worth a first round pick, which he wasn’t, and that Seattle would have to put Geno on the trade block, which they did.
Some good hits in the past include predicting the exact contract that Metcalf signed in 2022, the Seahawks drafting Devon Witherspoon in 2023, and Seattle signing Dre’Mont Jones…which I’m sure most would like me to take back.
I think if you want truthful and OBJECTIVE insights about the Seahawks without any other agenda other than: You’re paying me to give you the most-likely version of Seattle’s future…Then you are in the right place.
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You: A Seahawks fan
Emotion: EXCITED!
Why: Because the Seahawks are the talk of the NFL right now
What’s next: Keep reading to find out