Geno Smith faces bigger challenge in 'prove-it' year than his 2022 season

What must Geno Smith do to prove skeptics wrong for a second time? Seaside Joe 1627

Former Seahawks teammates Geno Smith and Russell Wilson probably have a lot of qualities that they admire in one another, as well as accomplishments that they respect for how each of them has evolved the quarterback position in some way during their careers. Now Geno has the chance to match one of Wilson’s most important achievements: Nailing the ‘prove it’ season.

For several years to start his career, Wilson was as close to perfect as anyone could reasonably expect a quarterback in his position to be, vastly out-performing expectations as a third round pick. But for several reasons, people just kept assuming that the stats were inflated, that Seattle’s wins had more to do with defense and (if you can believe this only 10 years ago) the running back (!!!), and that eventually Wilson’s less-than-ideal measurements would figuratively bring him down to match his literal distance from Earth.

Now because Wilson sustained his success for a decade with the Seahawks, quarterback prospects who have arguably worse draft resumes, not only because of how they played in college but also by actually being even smaller than Russ, are able to go as high as first overall. Quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Bryce Young.

BIG NEWS: Jordyn Brooks returns from PUP, so what can Seahawks fans expect from him and what could he cost as a 2024 free agent?

Imagine a quarterback entering the draft in 2023 who had 1,500 college passing attempts, 109 touchdown passes, is mobile and had 23 rushing touchdowns, proved himself in both the ACC and Big Ten, threw 31 touchdowns as a sophomore at NC State and 33 touchdowns with only four interceptions as a senior at Wisconsin, runs a 4.53, and will never get in trouble with anyone other than maybe his pastor.

He’s taller, heavier, and probably also faster than Bryce Young, who just went first.

Russell Wilson has never gotten the credit he deserves for paving the way so that undersized quarterbacks like Russell Wilson could stay under center and let defenses decide if they’re “too short” to play the position. He was underrated as a player on Super Bowl teams, he’s just as undersold as a quarterback who refused to back down to the MANY football coaches who told him that he couldn’t play Division-I or NFL football at that position. If Wilson does have an outsized ego, it’s also probably the reason he’s a nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback instead of a “former minor league baseball player”.

Well, now there are two names going into the 2023 season that regularly fill the blank in the statement, “He could be the next _____.”

One is Brock Purdy, who I covered in Monday’s preview of the 49ers, and two rookies who I heard referred to that way over the weekend were Stetson Bennett of the Rams and Aidan O’Connell of the Raiders. (I don’t expect there to be a “next Brock Purdy”, at least not this soon, but that’s for another day.)

The other is Geno Smith. Whether he’s aware of it or not, whether he cares or not (I assume that he doesn’t, which is good), the fate of countless veteran quarterbacks who “suck” according to the greater opinion are now placing their hope that Geno will swish his prove-it shot just like Russell Wilson once did for The Diminutives.

Geno is now that guy for The Busts.

What must Geno do this season?

As great as the story is, Geno’s Comeback Player of the Year season could end up as historically significant as Chad Pennington winning that award twice. Pennington always gets to be that guy, but did he actually do anything for oft-injured quarterbacks? And would he have rather won that award twice or been actually able to play more than two complete seasons in his entire career?

Pennington, another Jets draft “bust”, didn’t start any games in his first two seasons, then led the NFL in completion percentage and passer rating in year three, but only over 12 starts. He then started nine, 13, and three games over the next three years prior to winning Comeback Player of the Year in 2006. Penning then missed half of the season in 2007 (going 1-7 in his eight starts) before emerging as the Wildcat starter of the surprise Dolphins in 2008 and winning Comeback Player of the Year again.

Pennington played in four more games over the next two seasons and his career ended.

Geno Smith shouldn’t care about winning Comeback Player of the Year, being named to the Pro Bowl, leading the NFL in completion percentage, or signing a new contract. I don’t get the sense that he does, but it’s worth noting anyway that nothing that he did last season actually matters. His financial security is the most important thing to come out of 2022 and even that part is heavily dependent on nailing the ‘prove it’ year; Geno’s contract is a bet on himself.

As we covered recently, the words Geno is using to describe his current status is: “Unfinished business”.

Everything that was uplifting about Geno’s unbelievable story last season goes away faster than you can say “The Blind Side” if he reverts back to the Old Geno this year. I mean, have you heard the way that Pete Carroll has talked about Drew Lock throughout the offseason? He’s so sure that Lock will become a starter for the Seahawks that you’d think he was John Schneider!

In The Athletic’s preview of the Seattle Seahawks, there was talk of why Charles Cross could become an All-Pro left tackle, how perfect Jaxon Smith-Njigba fits into the offense, the usual praise for finding Abe Lucas in the third round, and how badly the backfield needed a running back with a receiving skillset like Zach Charbonnet.

That, plus having Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Ken Walker III, all sets Geno up for the fact that if he’s as good as he was in 2022, that’s probably acceptable. It will be good enough for Geno to earn some incentives and another year of his contract.

But with all that talent around him and so many skeptics wondering if the Seahawks offense is going to carry over a sluggish finish to last season, a legitimate ‘prove-it’ campaign would go well beyond his 2022 value.

Taking fewer sacks, being more consistent, making better decisions, being more careful with the football, and even scoring more touchdowns. Geno’s 30 touchdown passes was the fourth-most last season, but I think he’s capable of even more. Only four quarterbacks scored at least 35 touchdowns last season: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen. What seems like a small gap in touchdowns could really be the ultimate separator from Super Bowl contenders and teams that give their fans a bonus game or two.

If Geno goes that far with it, then we may see a lot more teams searching for the next version of Him in 2024.

Did you know that you could build an entire 53-man roster AND practice squad just with former Seahawks who are currently signed with other teams? Well, I did it and you could read it here to find out where they are now! The roster may not be as bad as you think!

Who could be the next “Geno Smith” from Week 1?

There are only two quarterbacks who are obvious candidates to be the next Geno Smith as soon as Week 1:

Baker Mayfield, whose offensive coordinator (Dave Canales) on the Buccaneers actually helped turn Geno’s career around as Seattle’s quarterbacks coach. That is surely part of the reason that Canales and Mayfield are now working together in Tampa Bay.

To say that I would be surprised if Mayfield is any kind of answer for the Bucs is both true and what I was saying about Geno a year ago, so that’s kind of the idea. The point is that people like me are skeptical!

The other is Kyler Murray’s backup on the Cardinals, aka “Destroyer of Seahawks” quarterback Colt McCoy. Reports that Murray could be ready to return from ACL surgery as soon as Week 1 seem exaggerated, as do the ones that say rookie Clayton Tune is next-up, so expect McCoy, who is 3-0 against Seattle all-time, to start against Washington on September 10 and so on.

Well, McCoy making the Pro Bowl would effectively end ANY greenlight for a movie about Geno Smith. His story would put that story to shame: McCoy has started 15 games and thrown 535 passes in the last 11 years. He is 5-10 in those starts and has thrown 14 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. McCoy last entered a season as starter in 2011 with the Cleveland Browns (ironically, Arizona’s offense is expected to replicate Kevin Stefanski’s Browns because of the new coordinator there) and then he was benched in favor of…

Why don’t I make that the answer to today’s pop quiz hot shot: Who replaced Colt McCoy in 2011? Hint: He’s been an answer on Seaside Joe before!

Should McCoy somehow make it that far as starter, the Cardinals play the Seahawks on October 22nd.

I don’t think any other expected starter qualifies as a “Geno Smith” prototype. Examples like Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo have played too much, even too well to be that kind of “Comeback”. Instead, we’d have to look at some backup quarterbacks who don’t seem that far away from potentially being asked to start:

Jacoby Brissett on the Moons. He did start 11 games with Cleveland last year, but nobody expects Brissett to ever become a good starter. The only thing stopping him from a chance right now is Sam Howell.

Mitch Trubisky on the Steelers, although there’s growing support for the idea that Kenny Pickett will be good.

Teddy Bridgewater just signed with the Lions and there’s more pressure on Goff to succeed now than there has been on him since he choked away his job with the Rams in 2019-2020.

Jameis Winston continues to hold out hope that it will work out with the Saints, and vice versa. Sam Darnold will have to start games for the 49ers this season, if Kyle Shanahan’s history is even a slight indication of what’s to come in the future.

And then there’s, well, there’s Drew Lock…

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What about future-future Geno projects?

For this particular exercise, I’m only looking at QBs who had at least some decent draft pedigree and who have definitely been labeled a “bust” from at least a few years ago. Another longshot would be Blaine Gabbert, who is currently backing up Patrick Mahomes.

But we aren’t far off from players like Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, and Kyle Trask from floating around the league and looking for their next job. I’ll even go a step further and say that “We’ll see” about Jordan Love, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, and Tua Tagovailoa, four Week 1 starters who might not end up being Week 10 starters.

However—and this is the important part relative to the Seahawks, which I know you care about the most—almost ALL of these quarterbacks will be considered more valuable projects and better investments IF Geno Smith PROVES that what he did last season was legitimate and then IMPROVES upon what he did last season to become a star who people say, “He was the reason” and not just “He was lucky to be in the right place at the right time.”

Was Geno the reason last year?

I can’t prove it…I’m just the writer.

Answer: Seneca Wallace

BIG NEWS: Jordyn Brooks returns from PUP, so what can Seahawks fans expect from him and what could he cost as a 2024 free agent?

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