Seahawks can't worry about what other NFC West teams do this offseason

The goal of each NFC West team in 2024 offseason: Seaside Joe 1828

When I was growing up (aka when I was in my early 30s), the Seattle Seahawks were consantly involved in an “NFC West arms race” amid the era of Pete Carroll vs. Jim Harbaugh. It was enjoyable to see the Seahawks and 49ers trade blows for top free agents and trade acquisitions, to reach the playoffs, and every so often the Cardinals and Rams would win something too.

Then all of a sudden, the Rams were better than the Seahawks—then they were much better than the Seahawks—and while Seattle’s never fully dropped out of the arms race, nothing they did in free agency, the draft, or the trade market could have much of an impact on perception because the franchise couldn’t win a big playoff game or the division.

Since Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay were hired into the division in 2017, either the 49ers or Rams have won all but one NFC West title, they’ve both reached two Super Bowls, and combined for six NFC Championship game appearances. The new arms race has been almost exclusively between those two franchises, with San Francisco striking blows for Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Charvarius Ward, and Javon Hargrave among veteran acquisitions. While the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford, Jalen Ramsey, Von Miller and signed Odell Beckham Jr. en route to winning the Super Bowl two years ago.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks signed Dre’Mont Jones. He’s decent.

Whatever happens in the next two months between free agency, trades, and the draft, the last thing that Seattle’s “new” two-headed monster of John Schneider and Mike Macdonald can do is get involved with an arms race against the other three teams in the NFC West. The 49ers and Rams are better for now, the Rams have a lot of money to spend and a willingness to use it, the Cardinals have the most draft capital and cap space, enough to out-bid other teams if players are willing to move to the desert.

The Seahawks can’t concern themselves with the rest of the division though. They need to just put their heads down, study their own roster, figure out who NEEDS to stay, prepare to part ways with everyone else if they can’t be developed into better players, and chip away at the pieces to a franchise that hasn’t been good enough over the last seven or eight seasons. The Seahawks need only worry about the Seahawks and nobody else, as their only goal has to be to improve the future of the franchise; not to win the division or the Super Bowl. The timing doesn’t seem right for that, but it would be nice to stay ahead of the Cardinals.

Today is an overview of the other three teams in the division and their outlook as the NFL finishes up the combine and prepares for free agency next week.

Arizona Cardinals

The Goal: Relevance

The Detroit Lions are relevant. Struggling through the entirety of the Super Bowl era, the Lions hired GM Brad Holmes out of the Rams organization and HC Dan Campbell, then landed draft picks like Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta, but those are just five of many who helped turn Detroit’s franchise around. Not only that, it took a slow improvement from 3-13-1 in the first season to barely missing the playoffs in year two for the Lions to finally win some playoff games in 2023.

If the Cardinals are to become relevant—following a 2023 season in which first-time head coach Jonathan Gannon was worse than predecessor Kliff Kingsbury—it will take good draft picks, smart free agent/trade decisions, and time. With a LOT of luck maybe Arizona will be back in contention by 2025 or 2026; they have the resources, do they have the ability?

No team in the NFC West has more resources to improve their roster than the Cardinals do—two first round picks including fourth overall, $45 million effective cap space and a quarterback already on the roster—but also no team has a bigger obstacle to face than Arizona: It’s one of the NFL’s weakest franchises and therefore it costs the Cardinals more money to acquire the same players who could just as easily go to a team that is historically better.

“Do you want to play in the desert or do you want to play in Los Angeles?”

“Do you want to play for a team that was just in the Super Bowl or do you want to play for the Cardinals?”

Arizona ranked 30th in average attendance (home and away) in 2023 and they’re coming off of back-to-back 4-13 seasons. Though the Cardinals made unexpected playoff runs in 2008 and 2015, Arizona has proven perfectly capable of going a decade without a playoff appearance: Since 1948, the Cardinals have won six playoff games.

So while the Cards have money to spend, they have to spend more of it to get marquee free agents to move to Glendale. Someone like DT Christian Wilkins, expected to hit free agency, might need $25 million per season to go to Arizona over the $23 million he’s being offered by the Texans or Colts. And then if the Cardinals do add a player like Wilkins, does one free agent alone make a team better? Not usually. That’s why it is so important to land hits in the draft, something else Arizona hasn’t been very good at historically.

It’s too soon to judge the quality of the Cardinals 2023 rookie class, the first under GM Monti Ossenfort, but Arizona’s decisions at picks 4 and 27 will say a lot about the franchise’s ability to finally become relevant. There will be arguments to take WR Marvin Harrison Jr, the prospect who has most often been called the ‘best all-around talent’ in the class, who could be like the next Larry Fitzgerald for the Cardinals. However, with such an interesting and deep class of receivers, Arizona might be tempted to go in a different direction in the top-5 and then choose a receiver with the first round pick they acquired from the Texans last year.

Nobody knows what the right decision will be but the success or lack thereof by the Cardinals 2024 draft class—also including three thirds and multiple picks in rounds 5 and 7—will say everything about their future.

2024 roster

I don’t expect the Cardinals to look much different other than a high-profile rookie or two and possibly a couple of notable free agent additions given their salary cap space. Kyler Murray isn’t expected to change teams due to the $35 million he’s guaranteed in 2024 and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is considered a good get on his way to being a future head coach if all breaks in the right direction.

The Cardinals had the same record as the Seahawks in the second half of 2023, so it’s too early for me to say that Arizona isn’t trending up into 2024.

There’s no clear reason why the Cardinals wouldn’t hang onto their best players like S Budda Baker, LT DJ Humphries, RB James Conner, TE Trey McBride, it’s just not a strong roster to begin unless young players start to step up. The defense was one of the worst in the NFL but Nick Rallis the youngest coordinator in the league and many expect him to have success eventually.

In their best case scenario, the Cardinals claw to a .500-ish record and prove that a Murray offense can indeed be good enough to win. Arizona would much rather be successful with Murray and pay him a lot of money than need to part ways with him in 2025. Therefore, the Cardinals goals are probably more proof-oriented than playoff-oriented: Like Campbell’s 2022 Lions, prove that you’re not the same old terrible Cardinals franchise.

In their worst case scenario, the Cardinals win two or three games, fire Gannon, need to cut Murray and start all over again in 2025. Which, knowing the Cardinals, isn’t super-unlikely.

San Francisco 49ers

The Goal: Win the Super Bowl WHILE unearthing cheap talent

As much as the Niners wish they could say that their only goal was to get back to the Super Bowl and win it, the long-term health of the franchise clearly shows that San Francisco needs to find a way to improve while also paying their star players less money per season. The bill is coming due and they can’t pay it.

Now I don’t necessarily think that the 49ers are going to go in the tank—they are essentially the anti-Cardinals as a long history of success has given the franchise the tools and confidence to rebuild in the right way, as seen in their recent rebound seasons—but no question that San Francisco has big decisions ahead and they’ll need some of their recent mediocre draft picks to be a lot better next year.

The 49ers best recent draft pick, WR Brandon Aiyuk, is potentially on the trade block as he enters his fifth-year option season. Aiyuk led the Niners in targets, catches, yards, and tied for the lead in touchdowns, so who steps up in his place? They don’t really have anyone on the roster for that. If San Francisco trades him for a first round pick to select a receiver, there’s no guarantee if he’ll be the next Justin Jefferson or the next Jalen Reagor. Statstically speaking, he’s probably most likely to be the next Jerry Jeudy, someone good not great.

Though it’s easy to pluck out examples like Brock Purdy, Talanoa Hufanga, Fred Warner, or George Kittle and say “Wow, they’re so good at picking day 2/3 talent!”, the truth is that those picks are few and far between. Many of their recent day two picks remain anonymous NFL players, some of them already off of the roster, so it’s been kind of a struggle for GM John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan to bring in the cheap players that would make it easier to part with the expensive ones.

2024 roster

None of San Francisco’s free agents would be huge losses (S Tashaun Gipson, DT Javon Kinlaw, DE Chase Young, QB Sam Darnold, DT Kevin Givens) but it will be hard for the 49ers to make their annual free agent splash without pushing some payments into the future and trading or extending Aiyuk.

I believe that trading Aiyuk is realistic and other than that the team would look about the same in 2024 with the addition of their rookies (picks #31, 63, #94, #98 in the first three rounds, more if they trade Aiyuk) and probably a couple of notable free agents given that players will expect to be able to chase a ring with Shanahan.

I expect the 49ers to be worse next season but not worse enough to miss the playoffs or anything like that. They went 12-5 and had a +193 point differential (their highest since 1995) so to be worse might mean going 11-6 and finishing second in the NFC West behind the team I expect to finish first…

Los Angeles Rams

The Goal: Win the NFC West, get back to the Super Bowl

The Rams did something in the 2023 offseason that they never do: They reduced, reused, and recycled.

They reduced their financial commitments and offers to star players, trading away players like Jalen Ramsey, cutting players like Bobby Wagner and Leonard Floyd, and staying out of free agency altogether until July’s bargain shopping.

They reused players who they were already financially committed to (Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald) or who were bargains yet to develop into starters (RB Kyren Williams, WR Tutu Atwell, LT AJ Jackson, FS Jordan Fuller, OLB Michael Hoecht).

They recycled castoffs nobody wanted like CB Ahkello Witherspoon, SS John Johnson, and RG Kevin Dotson.

The end result was that cutting corners and costs gifted L.A. five more wins than the previous season and opportunities for rookies WR Puka Nacua, LG Steve Avila, DT Kobie Turner, and EDGE Byron Young to become starters and in some cases bonafide immediate stars for Sean McVay. Better yet if you’re L.A.’s GM Les Snead, the Rams enter the 2024 offseason with over $40 million to spend, a first round pick (they haven’t used one in the draft since 2016), and not nearly as many needs as they had in 2023.

Snead recently told reporters that McVay could hardly contain his excitement for the Rams being able to finally spend money again, so for the team that was consantly ahead in the arms race, look for L.A. to dole out multiple top-tier contracts to new additions in the next few weeks. What might that look like?

2024 roster

Snead’s only major free agent decision right now is whether or not to sign Dotson, considered by some to be a top-5 guard in the league last season after the Steelers gave him up for a measly day three pick swap. The Rams haven’t typically re-signed interior offensive linemen for big money though, so I could see L.A. deciding to let him go and replacing him with a rookie contract player. Especially given that the $10-$14 million per season could instead be spent on the more flashier positions that the Rams tend to go for, like WR Tee Higgins for example.

Though the Bengals tagged Higgins and the Panthers tagged OLB Brian Burns, someone who L.A. reportedly tried to trade for in 2022, you can’t put it past the Rams to trade their first round pick for a franchise tagged player.

The Rams do have Puka and Kupp, but I wouldn’t expect that tandem to last for much longer and McVay has always favored a three-headed monster at receiver. L.A. may take a free agent shot at a receiver—or draft one in the first round if they can manage to wait a couple of months—and consider making their biggest splash on an edge rusher to replace Hoecht.

There are certainly needs at cornerback, safety, edge rusher, and at some point McVay and Snead will have to decide what the future is at quarterback to follow the 36-year-old Stafford, but the Rams went 10-7 last season in spite of mediocre starting talent at quite a few positions. Since I expect them to be able to spend and draft upgrades in some, if not all of those spots, the L.A. Rams have been my way-too-early pick to win the NFC Championship next season.

Where do Seahawks rank in NFC West?

I’m going with an expectation of standings like this: 1. Rams, 2. 49ers, 3. Seahawks, 4. Cardinals

I would put the Rams and Niners in the playoffs, Seattle near .500, and Arizona picking somewhere in the 6-10 range in the 2025 NFL Draft.

The Rams will have the most power in acquiring new talent that can help them immediately. The 49ers have the most talent currently on the roster and I expect them to look mostly the same, likely losing a couple of key starters but retaining enough and coaching up several players to still be a threat to win the NFC. The Cardinals have the most resources in free agency and the draft, but also the most work to do and I would say either the fourth place HC or fourth place GM, if not both.

The Seahawks have my favorite GM in the division and certainly an intriguing new name at head coach, although one who is entirely unproven in that role. If nothing else, it would be a surprise if Mike Macdonald didn’t prove to be an upgrade to the previous defensive coordinators. Seattle could have significant cap space and a pretty good roster if they follow my offseason pre-free agency plan, in addition to a draft pick that hovers right at the border of the prospects with true first round grades.

However, I think when we step back and take personal bias out of it, the Seahawks need more of their young players to prove themselves as consistent and unique talents because there are few I could near-guarantee will be in Seattle in a couple of years like that of Devon Witherspoon. I’m not saying everyone needs to be like Witherspoon, or that Witherspoon doesn’t have a ways to go in his development, but there are two other teams in the same division that have at least a half-dozen potential All-Pro players in 2024.

We could even look at the Cardinals in a year and be impressed with Paris Johnson, Marvin Harrison (or whoever they pick), Budda Baker, etc., in addition to the possibility that Kyler Murray is “back and better than ever”.

Maybe it doesn’t happen this way and Macdonald/Schneider’s re-development of the roster has success much sooner than expected—there are many decisions left to be revealed anyhow—but as of the end of the combine and near the start of free agency, the Seahawks look set as the third team in the division for now and that’s something that they’ll need to be comfortable with as they move ahead. Regardless of what the other NFC West teams do in the next two months.