Seahawks quarterback situation: Present, future, why not Drew Lock?

Assessing Seattle's position at the game's most important position: Seaside Joe 1563

Last year, I was very excited about an idea I had for a game on this newsletter called “QB Survivor”. It was as straightforward as the title suggests: A quarterback version of Survivor to prepare Seahawks fans for the 2023 NFL Draft and for us to collectively decide as a Seasider community, “Who would be the best choice for the Seahawks as a Quarterback of the Future?”

The game was paused early on and I never brought it back, mainly for one reason: When the Seahawks re-signed Geno Smith and Drew Lock…I believed them.

We’ll probably never be able to confirm or deny if John Schneider had any legitimate intentions to draft Anthony Richardson if he had been available at fifth overall, but we’ll always know for sure that the Seahawks did not draft any quarterback in 2023. I was comfortable with my decision before the draft to let others cover the quarterback class and that was what allowed me to start dreaming of Devon Witherspoon instead.

As fans, we have now been through 13 draft classes under Pete Carroll and John, and they have selected two quarterbacks. It is a risky proposition to devote countless hours to preparing fans for quarterback draft picks when the odds of this regime going in that direction seem to be less than 5%, especially in the first round.

Despite trading Russell Wilson last year, I didn’t buy that the Seahawks were going to draft a quarterback in 2022, and there were many rumors to the contrary that we had to avoid. And I mostly didn’t buy that the Seahawks were an ideal landing spot for Richardson (whether they felt differently and I’m wrong is an argument for another dimension because went to the Colts) and was comfortable moving off of that position entirely and looking at prospects at other positions.

Monday bonus thought experiment: What if Cortez Kennedy was a modern day 25-year-old player on the Seahawks?

The 2024 draft is far away and we have much to learn about Geno Smith and Drew Lock before concluding if Seattle could buck trend for a quarterback just as they bucked for Witherspoon at cornerback, but I want to put together a primer for that scenario for a couple of reasons: a) there is no true “second place” for the next most important position, quarterbacks deserve their own category and b) I believe many of you will be interested in broaching the discussion at some point, even if after today we will table it for a while because I don’t want to bore those fans who aren’t ready to start talking about what the Seattle Seahawks will do next at quarterback.

Geno isn’t too old to be at the beginning of a five or six-year run as the starter, although he must show improvement in order for that to be true. Still, I don’t want to be fixated on this idea as if Geno must “watch his back” even though that was kind of the subtext for many Seahawks discussions going into the draft.

Seaside Joe will respect either school of thought, whether that means that you want to focus on the players who are on the roster now and only the upcoming season OR if you like dabbling in the future of the team and position beyond this year. Could the Seahawks draft a quarterback early in 2024? What’s the contractual situation at quarterback? Is Drew Lock a potential answer? Why haven’t Pete and John taken more shots at the position?

Contract situations

As it stands, the Seahawks have Geno Smith signed for three more years, Drew Lock signed for one, and added undrafted free agent Holton Ahlers to the roster for a period that could last as little as a few months or as much as four years. If Geno Smith doesn’t play well enough though, Seattle could get away from the contract as soon as next offseason.

The Seahawks are further testing the waters on both Smith and Lock, without any hard commitments past 2023. For that reason, we could see Seattle make a change at the position with a significant addition to the roster in 2024, whether that be trade, free agency, or the draft. But also, the Seahawks could hope to keep things exactly as they are for another year: If we had a total repeat of 2022 in 2023, Seattle should be able to re-sign Lock if he once again didn’t see the field. They might like things exactly as they are.

As to Ahlers, the list of undrafted free agents to become starting quarterbacks, let alone good ones, is exceptionally short. We’ll see if he even makes the practice squad before assuming that he’s a part of the Seahawks future.

The 2024 draft pool

Assuming that the Seattle Seahawks are as good or better than they were in 2022, then it wouldn’t make sense to believe that they will have any opportunity to draft a quarterback in the top-10. At this time, that list would definitely include USC’s Caleb Williams and UNC’s Drake Maye, while there are a handful of candidates to join them near the top of the first round but the names are different depending on who you ask.

That’s why I'm going to avoid going through all the names. Maybe halfway through the college season, around October/November, we will have a better idea as to not only where Seattle’s draft position stands but also the draft stock of the prospects, and then that will be a better time to address the possibilities.

As of now, I am only comfortable saying two things: The Seahawks are not likely to be drafting first overall and if they do want to draft a quarterback on day two or three, why not Grayson McCall?

I am familiar with the names that will be drafted ahead of McCall—some draft websites don’t even give McCall a draftable grade—and it could be that down the road I am just as all-in on somebody else. It’s just a matter of knowing that if we go over 25 college quarterbacks who “could be” drafted by Seattle in 2024, we could still go 0-for-25.

The Seahawks haven’t wanted to use draft picks on quarterbacks. Maybe that’s been a mistake. Pete Carroll probably wouldn’t agree though, noting that not only did Seattle hit on Wilson, but they are also very comfortable with the two non-drafted quarterbacks currently atop the depth chart. The Seahawks might draft a quarterback in 2024. There remains a good chance that they won’t.

Why not Drew Lock?

I find the difference in Lock’s age and the age of some “young” quarterbacks to be neglible and I don’t see why can’t he be a developmental player at the position too. Kenny Pickett, a first round pick in 2022, is one year younger than Lock. Skylar Thompson, Miami’s seventh round rookie who had to start their playoff game last season, is the same age as Lock.

Lock is 26, where as rookies Hendon Hooker, Jaren Hall, Stetson Bennett, Aidan O’Connell, and Sean Clifford are all 25. Will Levis is 24.

Had the Seahawks elected to draft a quarterback who is roughly 12-24 months younger than Drew Lock, was that meant to dramatically change the outlook of Seattle’s future at the position? There is something to be said for the fact that Lock had an opportunity with the Denver Broncos and blew it, which is something that few quarterbacks come have come back from, whereas these other players could mostly be anything.

But their odds are perhaps equally low.

From 2010-2019, there were 30 first round quarterbacks and by my count 19 of them were really bad. Of the remaining 11, I’ve included Carson Wentz, Andrew Luck, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, and Kyler Murray. Not many names who have proven to be exceptionally good and that’s for the first round picks.

What if the Seahawks had decided to use a day two pick on a quarterback who could supplant Lock as the heir apparent and backup, such as Hooker or Levis? In that same period of time, there were just 23 day two quarterbacks and Seattle easily had the best gold strike in that crop with Russell Wilson. After him, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Andy Dalton, Nick Foles, and Geno lead the rest of the pack.

In fact, Drew Lock is one of the top-eight day two quarterback draft picks from the past decade.

More recently, Jalen Hurts is an example of why it may not be a bad idea for teams to take shots at day two quarterbacks just in case maybe a potential starter has been overlooked. That doesn’t mean that the odds of a second round pick developing into a high-end starter are necessarily greater than a “failed veteran” who has bounced around the league.

In the not too distant past, Kurt Warner and Rich Gannon. And within the last decade, Geno, Ryan Tannehill, Jared Goff, and you could make an argument that Kirk Cousins was in no better shape through his first few seasons than where Lock stands now. Drew Brees, technically a second round pick in 2001, had to survive getting benched with the Chargers prior to resurrecting his career.

The Seahawks gave Lock a one-year contract, whereas they could have tried to tie him in for two seasons just in case he gets an opportunity to start and is highly impressive, in which case Seattle would be in another tricky free agent situation next offseason. But they did include incentives that would pay Lock as much as $7.5 million, a huge figure for a backup.

Lock is not the first veteran quarterback castoff who the Seahawks have signed under Pete and the team hasn’t had a hard time parting ways with many of them, including Paxton Lynch and Matt Flynn. They have, however, taken a liking to three in particular: Tarvaris Jackson, Geno Smith, and Lock. That’s not that bad of a track record, as Jackson and Smith have had serviceable-to-good seasons as starters.

Given Seattle’s continued interest in Lock, I’d say that’s a strong endorsement by Pete and John, especially when coupled with the fact that they didn’t bring in a rookie to potentially take the backup job away from him.

The 2024 veteran market

Teams are more comfortable than ever with the idea that even if they don’t draft a franchise quarterback, there are other ways to address the position. Tom Brady to the Bucs, Matthew Stafford to the Rams, Russell Wilson to the Broncos, Deshaun Watson to the Browns, and most recently, Aaron Rodgers to the Jets. By my count, at least 12 teams are set to start quarterbacks in Week 1 who they did not draft, including Stafford and Geno in the NFC West, Baker Mayfield, Carr, Cousins, Goff, Garoppolo, Wilson, Tannehill, Gardner Minshew, Watson, and Rodgers.

That number could go even higher by Week 1, even if not all of these options are preferred long-term solutions.

Among next year’s free agents are Sam Darnold, Cousins, Tannehill, Mayfield, and Jameis Winston, but more important are probably the cut/trade candidates like Goff, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, and Mac Jones. Or maybe there are names that I am not even yet considering.

What’s really worth noting is that it wasn’t until recently that the idea of acquiring a veteran quarterback like Rodgers, Wilson, Stafford, or Brady at a time when they supposedly had quality starts left to give was considered feasible. Now, it’s an annual occurence. If the Seahawks don’t get they want from Geno or Lock and feel like getting bold next offseason, they might end up in a position to do the unexpected.

Reminder: What if Cortez Kennedy was a modern day 25-year-old player on the Seahawks?

What do I expect?

I think it’s too soon to say. The Seahawks would ideally like to see Geno Smith be an even better starter in 2023 than he was in 2022 because then they don’t have to address the position at all next offseason. There are more areas of the defense and offensive line that they could use those draft picks on instead and they wouldn’t have to eat any dead money on Geno’s contract, also allowing the team to keep finding out what they have in Lock.

If Lock is called upon to start, Seattle may like what they have there too. In either case, a perfect setup for the Seahawks to then utilize a day three pick on a quarterback who people have maybe been overlooking for the last three years.