It's better to be good and wrong than bad and right

Seahawks fans react to the 53-man roster and MVS release

Anybody who writes about sports these days is expected to cover the future sometimes and that means accepting the fact that I’m not always going to be right. That’s just part of it, which is why Seaside Joe tries as hard as possible to not make predictions but to share probabilities of tomorrow’s outcomes based on yesterday’s results.

Still, I am hard on myself when the expectations that I share with you turn out to be wrong, which was the case in part on Tuesday when the Seahawks decided to cut Marquez Valdes-Scantling and eat $3 million of salary cap. And not only that, Seattle did so to save certain players who were not even on the Seaside Joe radar, like Nick Kallerup.

ICYMI: 53-man roster

I found it so much easier to predict that the DK Metcalf and Geno Smith would not be on the Seahawks in 2025 than I was able to see a world where Mike Macdonald chose to protect White, Kallerup, and Connor O’Toole from the waiver wire (they might not have even been claimed) over a player who they have already paid.

But I’d much rather be wrong than find out that Seattle kept a player who the team liked less than Cody White because of money. How can you not when White wrote this on Instagram after getting the news that he made the team:

Being wrong absolutely sucks, especially when it’s straight to the Seahawks fans who generously subscribe to this newsletter (I instantly had flashbacks to the “No, Russell Wilson is not the starter!” summer of 2012) but even if it’s not what you signed up for, it is what I signed up for. That comes with the game and I hope that if I can own up to my most public miscalculations, there will be less of them in the future.

At least, that’s what I predict will happen.

Luckily, I learn so much from the Seaside Joe community comments section. Here were some of your immediate reactions to the 53-man roster on Tuesday:

BEASTMODE808: I actually love that they rewarded guys like Ty Okada and Cody White. Hope we can get Patrick O'Connell & Tyreke Smith on the Ready Squad. Kallerup is a surprise, perhaps he is a great blocker?

White’s Instagram post tells me that he does not anticipate this being a short-lived move on the 53-man roster, but I’m not exactly sure about Kallerup. The Seahawks know they’ve taken a lot of criticism for special teams blocking and coverage over the past 12 months, so I wonder how the third phase factored into these bubble decisions.

Nicholas Donsky: I think Kallerup is holding down a spot till they sign an off ball LB. Once Horton showed I knew MVS was gone. Love most of the moves, especially keeping White, Young. and Okada. I thought Pili was a lock. I can't see him not being claimed. More moves to come. So far so good.

It wouldn’t be so shocking if there weren’t 4 other guys who can play tight end, including a blocker. As far as claims, 2.5% of waived players get claimed, which is 1 out of 40. Anything could happen on Wednesday, but among eligible players that is less than one player per team.

Bryant: I hope Martinez lands on the practice squad as I remember him as a strong runner at Oregon State. I know his preseason was meh, but he’s young and strong and might be needed during a long season. 3 RBs for a team that wants to focus on running the ball makes me a bit nervous.

For the weeks that Kenneth Walker III is healthy, three running backs is the max they’ll need on game day. If Walker or someone else goes down, elevating Damien Martinez or Jacardia Wright (getting claimed would be a surprise) from the practice squad is a quick fix. Like any other position, it’s hard to replace those top-tier guys, but at running back there are countless options in the Martinez or Wright tier.

And maybe one day we’ll find out that what I just said is totally unfair — they’re rookies, they’ve never played in the league before — but right now that’s how it looks.

Chris H: Robbie Smash is the dude for 2025. Excited to see whether Zach takes the lead RB role, and K9 comes in as the 'change of pace' back, rather than the other way around. Praying that Tyrice is back to full health by game day.

Yeah, or that too. I like ‘em both.

Danno: Worse thing about this 53 is Byron Murphy is going to play a lot of NT

It does seem to be a “light box” so to speak. The Panthers released Shy Tuttle, a player I mentioned last week, but he immediately signed with the Titans. An addition at nose tackle and/or off-ball linebacker seems like the most probable outside pickup.

Grant Alden: I don't fault the MVS signing. It was before the draft, after all. In the draft, we got Horton, in the fifth round, right? (Memory? I had one, once...) And he fell that far because of injury. No guarantee the draft board would yield a receiver, no guarantee Horton would prove out…a veteran WR4 who doesn't play special teams...is an obvious cut.

I understand the argument to not find fault with the signing, that’s all well and good. Nothing you’re saying is a wrong argument, but I did address all of those points in my reasoning for why it was a bad signing in my opinion: The player you are describing of a “veteran WR4 who doesn’t play special teams” should not have been paid $3 million guaranteed.

That’s the argument I’m making. You can find those guys for 5% of what they paid him. The Seahawks either intentionally overpaid or they thought that MVS was more than that, so that’s why I call it a bad signing. Also, it was John Schneider’s 4th-biggest free agent move of the year and he didn’t make the final roster. Combined with all the free agent signings of 2024, it’s the reason that Seattle needs to start proving that the pro scouting department is still good.

Dave Stamey: I agree that the MVS cut is another dogshit FA signing for Schneider. However, I am glad that they didn't keep him JUST because of the $3M guarantee. Makes me hopeful that they really like what they have in their young developmental WRs. Begaw!

I happened to write what I wrote earlier before I saw this comment and we are on the same page there. Begaw right back to you, Dave. Begaw to everyone.

Grant: According to a google AI summary, the exact origin of the word "flabbergasted" is unknown, but first appeared in print in the 18th century as fashionable slang. It evolved over time from meaning "struck with fear" to the modern sense of being "astonished." I said I'd be flabbergasted if they released MVS, and here I am in 300 years after the word was invented, being flabbergasted.

John Gilbert also pointed out today that if another team signs MVS, what he gets paid (probably a little over $1 million) will be offsetting, meaning that the Seahawks get to save that amount up to the $3 million they paid him. So the ultimate cost may actually be closer to $2 million. Which is still bad, but less bad.

zezinhom400: The many whiffs in FA are more than counterweighted by the fabulous recent drafts…

You should not find a bigger John Schneider apologist than me and you know that means a “but” is coming…

His post-Pete Carroll era is two free agencies, two drafts, a handful of trades, and the coaching staff. He may have had a larger hand in the 2022-2023 drafts, but we’ll never really know how to measure that so we have to turn our attention to the two last drafts:

• 2025: Totally N/A up until right now we can’t judge it at all

• 2024: Murphy needs to prove it, Christian Haynes is a bubble boy, Laumea, James, and Jerrell are all gone, leaving Tyrice Knight, AJ Barner, and Nehemiah Pritchett.

Schneider’s 2024 free agency was an indisputible failure and his draft reputation is still relying heavily on players who haven’t done anything yet. I am as confident as you all, if not more, that many of those players WILL HIT. But I never give players bonus points just because they are Seahawks and their success would benefit me as a fan. Once they are good on the field in the regular season, then we can start praising Schneider’s moves independent of the guy who was in charge for the previous 14 years.

The best player so far is Knight and he had a half-season worth of starts and unfortunately is going into this season without practicing much.

I like basically every trade he’s made so far (Jones, Geno, DK) and I like the coaching staff (we glossed over the Ryan Grubb era didn’t we?) choices but no, in my opinion we can only give Schneider an “incomplete” at best right now. If I had not been married in a courthouse in front of six people, I would have John Schneider there as my best man. I’m pre-loading a bullet with an “A+” grade on it for his entire 2025 offseason…I just don’t put my finger on the trigger until the NFL season actually starts.

Everybody has the right to judge a person based on whatever your set of criteria happens to be and any fan is allowed to disagree with my judgment here, but for me it’s too soon to say that Schneider’s lack of free agency hits is offset by draft picks (in the same period of time) who also need to prove themselves.

Becharof1: Yes! Let’s try to learn from past mistakes & move forward with this years vets & rookies. I’m looking forward to watching this team grow into a very special team. With the new coaching staff it could be a very fun year of football in Seattle! Go Seahawks!

And I also agree with this! I think the Seahawks are the most exciting team they’ve been in a while. It does seem like we’ve been saying that the last few years….but at least this time there are so many changes on offense that Seattle is anything but predictable.

Sea Hawk Run! Another reason to have an offense-leaning roster is that they are unproven. On defense, we have starters, rotational players, special-teamers, and backups who will only get significant snaps if there are injury woes. On offense, we have all of that, plus guys who might get promoted if the primary players don’t pan out.

Yet another reason for fewer defensive players is that we have hybrids between safety and LB, LBs who can play up, and defensive linemen who can slide in and out, not to mention a CB who can play into the backfield. Lots of fungible players there. Offensive roles don’t have quite that level of flexibility.

This feels strategic to me. The offensive scheme requires more pieces than teams who focus on 11-personnel. This is enabled by a defensive scheme that has less rigid roles and is less dependent on a large number of specific backups. So maybe we start with 27/23. The offensive personnel will be refined over the first half of the season, similar to the changes we saw on defense during 2024. As the games roll by, the team can move to 26/24 as the balance point.

Agreed and the way that the Seahawks announced their roster they were basically saying “hey we have 8 linebackers and we have 5 defensive linemen!” which is a little funkier than splitting them up as “LB, OLB, DT, and DE” or “LB, EDGE, DL”.

There is an emphasis on being moveable pieces, which is Macdonald’s way of strategically getting into the heads of Seattle’s opponents before they even get to the film. If you see a Demarcus Lawrence or a Mike Morris or a Connor O’Toole out there, you may not be 100% correct of where he’s going to end up post-snap. The depth chart looks nuts:

One “backup” defensive lineman, seven “outside” linebackers, three off-ball linebackers, five safeties.

JIMMY JOHNSON: It's looking like Schneider can be snookered by aging veterans and their agents. John Madden was a Master at mustering a few more butt-kicking years out of +30 Vets, but then they had their pirate ethos to play upon and Madden just had "that Way" about him. Washed up? Maybe. But not washed out. And they absolutely revelled at going out and unleashing Havoc. They were taped up from the hands to the elbows. My hometown were genuinely nuts with it all, back then, and we weren't alone. All of Northern California country boys lived to copy it. Big Jim (Double) Otto shared a back fence with my Uncle. They lived for it, too, going way beyond what was physically prudent. Kinda feels like JS thinks he can still discern it in a guy. He wants to believe this generation can also share that kind of obstinate passion. I'll be watching Kupp, close. So will every young guy on this Team. Let's raise some hell, Coop!

It’s a great Madden story and you’re a great storyteller, which feels even more prudent coming from a guy named “Jimmy Johnson”.

Madden also played in a totally different era. It’s a younger and younger league by the season, especially at wide receiver. I would never advocate for investing in 32-year-old wide receivers, even Cooper Kupp. But now that the signing is already finished, we can hope for the best. For the games when he’s healthy, I believe Kupp can still be a top-10 slot receiver. Emphasis on “slot”, meaning he could be a top-30 receiver.

If nothing else, he should be a good mentor for JSN.

Bret: "Excited" isn't quite the right word, but I'm eager/hopeful that Byron Murphy becomes a game-wrecker. Aside from effective run blocking fron the offensive line, TEs, and our newly-minted FB, Murph is the one whom I am most eager to see succeed and really "show up" by being unblockable during games. Dare to dream, right?

Now would be a great time for that to happen. I’ve seen Murphy dominate before, so is he ready to start doing that consistently? It can take 3 years in the league for even the best DTs to get to that point.

Hawkdawg: I think Ivey apparently making it is worth a mention. He's got some decent film for an UDFA. Played better than Morris in the preseason IMO...

That Saturday Morning Inspection YouTube channel highlighted him twice in the preseason. That guy way overrates players for the “thumbnail clicks” but look, the guy made the team and he did dominate his competition this preseason. I’m thinking that Macdonald could see a future where Ivey and/or O’Toole replace a big name on the edge who hits free agency.

Final Thoughts on MVS

Because this is the point that I think was hardest to convey on Tuesday, I’ll boil it down to the most simple explanation for being a bad move:

-No, it’s not that big of a deal

-Yes, the Seahawks would have better receiver depth in August than they realized when they signed MVS in March

-$3 million could have paid for starting center Austin Corbett or guard Teven Jenkins or starting guard Greg Van Roten.

Moves can be small and also bad. GMs can make bad moves and not be bad GMs. All 32 made bad moves this year. If we can’t bring up that the Seahawks overspent on a 30-year-old receiver instead of a center (who was even cheaper), or the he drafted Christian Haynes in the third round and now that player is a bubble boy, what is the threshold then for acceptable criticism?

$5 million? $10 million? There’s plenty more than that from 2024 free agency.

So yes, every fan should agree that our attention now turns to the “big 3” free agents and what they do to prove Schneider right. I am a pretty strong believer in those players, but all we have as proof right now is who made the team and who didn’t…and MVS did not. That’s notable and it keeps the door open for the first non-Pete free agent to walk through it who is not a bust.

That’s all I’m saying.

Seaside Joe 2368