What could go right?
3 things the Seahawks hope will go right to win the next Super Bowl
On Sunday, Seaside Joe broached three things that could go wrong for the Seahawks in their bid to repeat as Super Bowl champions. I actually think the odds are pretty low that Seattle could miss the playoffs, but winning the Super Bowl is hard no matter how good your team is because a lot could go wrong. Many more things than 3.
For balance, here are a few reasons the Seahawks could repeat.
#1 - Sam Darnold is confident now
The most dramatic improvement in Darnold’s stats between his first six seasons and his last two seasons is not turnovers, it’s the completion rate.
Darnold’s completion rate 2018-2023: 59.7
Darnold’s completion rate 2024-2025: 66.9%
Darnold’s 2.9% interception rate in 2025 is only 0.3% lower than his first four seasons. But given better receivers, better coaching, and more time to throw, Darnold is a top-10 most accurate passer over the past two seasons—and he ranked 10th in air yards per attempt in 2025, so he’s not just throwing checkdowns.
Just from us watching the games we all know that Darnold isn’t afraid to throw downfield.
Darnold ranked 6th in intermediate (10-19 yards) accuracy
And 2nd in deep (20+ yards) accuracy
Now he’s won more games in the past two seasons (31, including playoffs) than in his first six seasons (21).
I try to have the most measured opinion of Darnold that is possible which is that YES: he’s really talented and it shouldn’t be hard for anyone to see why he was the third pick of the 2018 draft, I think it’s just OBVIOUS when you watch him play that he’s arguably the most talented quarterback that Seattle has ever had.
That argument is easier for the Seahawks than it is any other organization because the only quarterback Seattle has ever picked that high is Rick Mirer.
I’m not a scout so my best description of why Darnold is good is that it should be clear to anyone watching football for a while that he’s “freaky” and not in a Michael Vick way but more like in a Carson Palmer way. I don’t think it takes anything away from Matt Hasselbeck or Dave Krieg or Jim Zorn or Russell Wilson to say that the Darnold experience just hits different.
That’s the overzealous Seahawks fan take on Darnold, not the measured one so….
ALSO YES: Darnold’s biggest contribution last season, aside from 1.25 phenomenal performances against the Rams, was that he didn’t shit the bed when all Seattle was asking him to do was not shit the bed. Over the last seven games, Darnold’s role could have probably been handled by more than a few other quarterbacks as the Seahawks took over in other phases of the game:
These are practically the same stats as Marcus Mariota’s rookie season:
In the playoffs, Darnold separated himself from other quarterbacks by how he played in the NFC Championship. But I said before the 49ers game and the Super Bowl that I didn’t really care how Darnold would perform because it really wouldn’t matter that much against San Francisco and New England’s rather mediocre rosters:
As it were, Darnold needed just 15.5 completions and 163 yards per game in those contests for the Seahawks to blow them out.
—Sam Darnold proved he can win a Super Bowl when he’s only being asked to protect the football and make a few high level throws because he has a great defense and a great special teams unit and a great running game supporting him.
That’s great! Jimmy Garoppolo is one example of many quarterbacks who were given that chance before and FAILED to win a Super Bowl.
But there’s another level above Darnold’s game—and he’s only 29 as of this summer—that he could be elevated to because he’s now a Super Bowl winner.
Tom Brady is the ultimate example. Drew Brees is another. Joe Theismann won the Super Bowl in 1982 and then won MVP in 1983 even though he wasn’t really on anyone’s radar as a great quarterback prior to getting a ring.
Sports is so much about confidence that Darnold besting Matthew Stafford in the NFC Championship may have been from all the steam he had gained at that point and as the skeptics start to fall away one-by-one perhaps next season is when the mental meets the physical for him to become the best quarterback in the league.
#2 - Special Teams on Repeat
The most underrated reason for Seattle being in the Super Bowl last season could also be the most underrated reason for the repeat:
Jason Myers set records for points in a season, points in a Super Bowl, and field goals in a Super Bowl
Michael Dickson may have had not just one, but three or four of the single best games by a punter in franchise history
Jay Harbaugh is probably never going to win assistant coach of the year but he would have deserved it*
I hope I’m proven wrong but right now Rashid Shaheed is an $18 million returner…he hasn’t done much else yet and I can understand why Seattle felt so pressured to sign him
*Josh McDaniels won the award; now you tell me who had a better Super Bowl: McDaniels or Harbaugh? It’s not even close.
The Seahawks had to win the division in Week 18. They had to beat the second-best team in the NFL twice to get that opportunity to reach the Super Bowl. It’s hard to imagine any way that Seattle gets homefield or beats the Rams both times without their special teams unit being PHENOMENAL.
And yet there wasn’t much of an effort to poach from their special teams.
Harbaugh, Dickson, Myers, Shaheed, and Chris Stoll all return. The most important special teamer leaving is Dareke Young. 13 of the top 15 players in special teams snaps are under contract with Seattle:
Chazz Surratt and Cody White could also still return.
In 2014, Bill Belichick emphasized the importance of special teams and why:
I think special teams always has a huge impact on the game. We talk about it being a third of the game, and it's probably pretty close to that. Certainly those are plays where the ball is, either points are involved on field goals or the ball is being exchanged. A lot of things can happen when the ball gets exchanged or attempts to get exchanged. Those are difficult plays in terms of ball handling. We put a lot into that.
This part especially rings true for Harbaugh’s continuity by bringing back players like Brady Russell, Jake Bobo, D’Anthony Bell, and Shaheed:
There are so many kicking situations that it's really impossible to practice or prepare for all of them. But you hope over the course of time and accumulation of games and reps and practice situations that you're eventually ready for all of them.
If the Seahawks are in a close 1-2-3 battle for the NFC West title again, special teams could be the tipping point tiebreaker in their favor.
#3 - The breakout is coming from inside the house
When I think of a true “breakout” season, I think of Ernest Jones IV last year. Jones had already established himself as a linebacker who was good enough to start but even his contract reflected a player who still had to prove himself: His $9.5m AAV is only 20th at the position.
Then he comes out of 2025 looking like a top-5 inside linebacker, intercepting six passes including playoffs.
There’s been an over-emphasis on the players who Seattle let leave in free agency as a reason for doubts to creep in but sometimes a team’s best replacement of VALUE is not going to be someone at the same position:
It’s like if you sell your car and don’t immediately go buy another car, your friends might think that riding a bicycle is a sign of financial ruin; but maybe you just want to get in shape.
What if the Seahawks were okay with losing Kenneth Walker III because they’re really excited about Tory Horton, A.J. Barner, Elijah Arroyo, Shaheed, and George Holani? This is a list of players that were top of mind for me as far as breakouts and I already know you’d add more names to it:
Horton: 5 touchdowns in 8 games. A healthy Horton breaks Seattle’s passing game wide open.
Emmanwori: Everybody’s aware of Emmanwori now, but if we’re being completely fair he has tons of room for improvement. Especially in zone coverage, same as Devon Witherspoon. A better version of Emmanwori could be an All-Pro next season.
Arroyo: He needs reps and he won’t get those reps until he can stay healthy. He’s almost like a TE version of Anthony Richardson.
Holani: He had 22 carries on only 36 snaps (!!) last year. What could he do with 300 snaps? John Schneider claims the team is very high on him but are they going to draft a RB in the top-64?
Murphy: Had as many sacks as Chris Jones and Zach Allen (+2 in the playoffs) but didn’t make the Pro Bowl. We could be talking about him as “elite” in the near future.
Hall: Had as many sacks in the Super Bowl as he had in the regular season. Hall is still just 25 which would make him roughly the same age as some college players these days.
Mills: We saw very little of Mills but what we saw gives us reason to think he’s in line for a much bigger role.
The controversial name on my list is Anthony Bradford. I’ve never pulled punches against Bradford but I’m always open to a player turning his career around and Bradford is even younger than Hall. I look at someone like Damien Lewis, who I’m still convinced is merely just “OK”, and I think Bradford could get a shocking contract in free agency next year.
When OL coach John Benton gets his hands on a player for 1-2 years he’s proven that he can mold him into a reliable starter. Bradford played almost every single snap, including playoffs. Seattle put three years into Mark Glowinski before they waived him and then for the next 5 years he was much better than Seattle’s right guards. Don’t let it happen again.
With status quo at most starting positions and a few breakouts, the Seahawks would most definitely have another championship-caliber team.
On Saturday I asked you to vote in some polls about ex-Hawks. Here’s what you had to say.
PFF’s offseason grade so far is in and both the niners and the Rams have higher grades than the Hawks. No surprise there.
PFF is wrong about the Seahawks more than they’re right. Last offseason they had the Hawks competing with the Cardinals for last place in the division and a below .500 team. The only reason they aren’t grading them more harshly is because they just won the SB, not because they brought back all but 5 players from that team and have a plan to replace those players who became too expensive to keep. The Rams and 49ers are going all in on this year. They’re getting older, while the Seahawks stay young. JS doesn’t just want to win the SB again this year, he’s looking to be a serious contender for several more years. This is a weak draft class where depth falls off fast after 100. He’s planning to address three of the needs left by losing key players to free agency with the three picks he has in the top 100 picks this year. Most likely at CB, EDGE and RB. Next year is being talked about as a generationally deep class, and the Hawks have 12 picks already. No team has more. This is by design. They’ll get 4 comp picks in rounds 4 and 5 as long as they don’t sign a free agent above a certain cost. That’s why there’s been no splashy signings despite having cap space. He plans on keeping JSN Spoon and possibly D Hall next year and cap space will be needed for them. Then there’s Darnold the following year. JS is planning to be what the Chiefs almost were. If my rating meant anything, I’d give them an “A”
We might be in the golden age of Seahawks football and don't realize it yet. I love our trajectory. Hoping we stay healthy and can run it back. Riley Mills was such a small sample size it's easy to forget he could regress downward...but dang he looks pretty promising imo. Wish I could be a fly in the wall at HQ and hear those internal discussions around the draft.